Buy or Sell - Undervalued and Overvalued Players for Week 2

April 7, 2019

Kev Mahserejian takes a look at players who may be overvalued or undervalued in week 2. These players could be buy or sell candidates for the 2019 fantasy baseball season.

The first official week of fantasy baseball is coming to an end and many of you are celebrating your draft hits and lamenting the misses. Realistically, there is no way to definitively know whether you made the correct decision or not for at least another month. It's a tormenting feeling at times because you may either cut bait too soon, or you're in too deep and played chicken with a replacement for long enough that they were picked up.

The phrase Buy or sell is a bit looser than it typically would be mid-season or closer to fantasy playoff time. The players covered, for the most part, are guys I am either wary of or tentatively interested in. We are walking a fine line here in the first month. Various factors play into good/bad season starts such as tough schedules with rough ballpark (or vice-versa), nagging injuries, poor team performance, and even the weather.

You still want to be as ahead of the curve as possible, and I am here to help with that. Let's take a look at what we've seen thus far in week one.

Undervalued Players - Week 2

Jorge Polanco - (SS, MIN) - 20% owned

This buy is a little more obvious. Jorge Polanco just hit for the cycle and his name has been plastered all over ESPN and the rest of the internet. Regardless of his scorching Friday night, Polanco is a strong, consistent player to buy. Ever since his swing change in the middle of 2017, he's been a different player. One that can live up to the high pedigree billing coming into the league.

An unfortunate positive PED testing cut his 2018 in half but his pace through the games he did play in flashed skills that closely mirrored his back half of 2017. Polanco is now a full-season breakout candidate. A 20 home run, 20 steal season is not out of the question for the talented shortstop. Although 15/15 is more likely, it is hard to pass up a player of his caliber who can get on base plenty and hit for a good average at the two-spot in a good lineup. Polanco is viable in all scoring formats and should be owned in every 12+ team league.

Yandy Diaz (1B/3B/DH, TB) - 16% owned

Yandy Diaz might be breaking out. The behemoth of a man has figured out how to use his strength for good (fly balls) rather than evil (ground balls). Diaz's kryptonite throughout his professional career has been launch angle. He had continually hit the ball hard as heck yet kept them on the ground. Word on the street is that's not ideal. The Indians typically never played him these past two seasons for reasons unknown. He was still productive without the home runs. Diaz got on base over 35 percent of the time through 2017 and 2018 and hit a fair amount of doubles and triples to make up for the lack of home runs.

With full playing time, Diaz is taking on the challenge and performing beyond expectations. He has already doubled his career home run total in just seven games this season. His walk rate is at a career high and his strikeout rate is at a career low. Although they will regress soon enough, the early success he has had is promising. Diaz is typically batting either leadoff or fifth and producing in every category except steals. There is no guarantee that he keeps this up, but he's worth the buy to find out. Diaz can work in every scoring format and could end up as this season's Jesus Aguilar.

Kyle Hendricks (SP, CHC) - 87% owned

His next start (@MIL) absolutely stinks, and I fully expect a poor performance against that powerhouse in Miller Park, but I am still buying Kyle Hendricks. Despite owning a strikeout-rate that has dropped each of the past three seasons, Hendricks continues to churn out quality innings deep into games and rack up wins. Sometimes it is alright to lean for the reliable over the flashy.

I would never recommend actually watching one of his torturous starts as I am opposed to masochism, but buying him would be wise after his next start. He has begun each of the past two seasons poorly, then found ways to bounce back. Maybe it is part of his process to dig himself into a hole then dig himself out. Although Hendricks walks a fine line with his stuff, it typically works out. His matchup after Sunday comes at home next weekend against the Angels, a prime buying time.

Adam Frazier (2B/OF) - 9% owned

Typically, Adam Frazier would be just a guy given his pedigree and fantasy history. However, as the leadoff hitter on a *decent* Pirates team, he holds some value. Frazier gets on base roughly 34 percent of the time and should see four or more at-bats per game. There is plenty of run volume to be accumulated from owning him with some steals and home runs thrown in. Frazier could be a consistent end of bench guy to own who can put up useful counting stats. Think of him as a Cesar Hernandez type from the past few years. He's almost a must own in deeper leagues due to his production from this past week. Grab him if you are in dire need of a second baseman or fifth outfielder.

Bonus: This should seem obvious...buy the Phillies offense. If there is a non-believer in your league who doubts that they will keep this pace up, take advantage of them (with a trade). Shop around for anyone in the top-five of the Philly batting order. Pay face value if you have to, it is worth it.

Overvalued Players - Week 2

Chris Paddack (SP, SD) - 79% owned

Nothing against Chris Paddack and his ability to pitch, the guy can absolutely deal and should be an ace for a very long time. His placement in this section is in regards to his perception as a breakout ace now, which he might not have the volume for. Paddack is not likely to get a full season's worth of innings. It is not out of the realm of possibility for the Padres to push him to a full season's work, it's just very unlikely. Paddack did not pitch in 2017 due to Tommy John then pitched fewer than 100 in 2018. The likelihood that he cracks even 150 innings this season is low.

If you own him, let him run through his next couple of starts and mow dudes down, building up more value. Unless there is a Padres fan dying to get their hands on him, you are best off playing the waiting game. One very good start against the Giants is probably not enough to raise Paddack's cost astronomically. Reap the rewards of owning him early on, then drop him onto another owner before word of an innings limit comes out.

Nick Pivetta - (SP, PHI) - 78% owned

Pivetta was a hot commodity during draft season. Plenty of analysts claimed 2019 as his breakout year. Although he had not performed too well up until this point, beyond the box score, his underlying numbers flashed brilliance. His xFIP and SIERA in 2018 were that of SP2 quality while his ERA and WHIP left a lot to be desired.

What do you make of a pitcher that has the qualities of breaking out, yet fails to do so? It's something owners might have to struggle with for a few more weeks. Waiting out Pivetta is probably the best bet, but selling him to a believer is also a possibility. His issues through the first two games of the season are discouraging yet nothing new. Pivetta would not be the first pitcher to continually underperform his respective peripherals. If he becomes unbearable to hold onto, with no buyers around by next month, a drop is warranted.

Dallas Keuchel (SP, NA) - 72% owned

Dallas Keuchel has yet to sign with a ball club. He is tricky to evaluate because there is no team context or data available from this season. Historically, pitchers who sign after the season begins, typically struggle due to the lack of preparation. Keuchel is reportedly throwing 95 pitches every five days or so to stay fresh, but that could just be smoke to keep his value high. Why risk blowing your arm out before securing the bag? If you own him and are inclined to drop him for a hot waiver wire add to fill a need/stream, it would behoove you. If he's available and your pitching is weak, him signing somewhere like San Diego could boost your floor tremendously. Again, tricky evaluation.

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