Bryce Elder: Champ or Chump for Fantasy Baseball?

July 11, 2023

Is Bryce Elder a fantasy baseball sleeper, bust, or neither? Is he a flash in the pan or will he thrive? Rick Lucks's deep dive into Elder's 2023 fantasy value.

The All-Star Break has arrived, giving fantasy managers a much-needed break from setting daily lineups. Of course, the most diligent fantasy managers will use this found time to negotiate trades, scour waivers, and look for ways to improve their roster for the second half.

One of the most important things to do is review your players and identify who's performing well, who might pick it up after the break, and who might be a liability moving forward. Even somebody with shiny surface stats could be a problem if their underlying metrics don't support it.

To that end, let's talk about National League All-Star Bryce Elder. The 24-year-old has a 2.97 ERA and a 7-2 record in 106 IP for the Braves, but nearly everything beyond that suggests massive regression fantasy managers don't want any part of. Here is a closer look at what should land this All-Star arm on waivers by the end of the year.

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Bryce Elder Has Been Lucky This Season

Whenever we evaluate a pitcher, his "luck metrics" are a good place to start. "Luck metrics" is in quotes because they aren't 100% luck, but they are more luck than skill in most cases. The metrics are BABIP, strand rate, and HR/FB. Elder has been fortunate thus far in all three categories.

First, Elder has a BABIP of .273 when the league average stands at .297. A low BABIP can prove sustainable if a team's defense is elite, but the Braves rank 19th in the league with -5 Outs Above Average and have -1 OAA when Elder is on the mound. Defense might be the closest thing the team has to a weakness. Extreme fly ball pitchers can also suppress BABIP by inducing harmless pop-ups, but Elder is an extreme ground ball pitcher whose 54.8 GB% ranks fifth among qualified pitchers.

Lest you think Elder has some kind of magical contact suppression ability, Baseball Savant's xStats suggest otherwise. His xBA of .254 is 17 points higher than his actual mark of .237, while his xSLG of .386 is 22 points higher than his actual slugging percentage against of .364. Barring some dramatic change, we should expect Elder to give up more hits moving forward.

Elder also has a strand rate of 81.5% when most pitchers are in the low 70s. Pitchers who consistently post strand rates of 80+% are strikeout artists who can get the K "when they need it" since they get it all of the time. Elder's 18.4% K% is substantially below the league average, meaning there's nothing in his profile suggesting he'll continue stranding all of these runners.

Finally, Elder's 12% HR/FB is very low for a ground ball specialist. Since they don't want the ball in the air, any ball that ends up in the air was likely a mistake. Elder hasn't been burned by this yet, but that doesn't mean he won't be.

Bryce Elder Doesn't Get Strikeouts

Elder has an 18.4 K% against a 7.8 BB% this season, giving him a 10.6 K-BB% that ranks 53rd among qualified pitchers. He's sandwiched between Drew Smyly (11.1%) and Johan Oviedo (10.5%), two arms that are streaming options at best in fantasy. It would be one thing if Elder's arsenal offered some strikeout upside, but it doesn't.

Elder ranks in the 8th percentile for fastball velocity. His sinker averages 89.7 mph, and his fastball is only slightly better at 90.8 mph. Hitters are torching both offerings, hitting .294/.392/.392 against his sinker and .300/.368/.500 against the fastball. His fastball wins by SwStr% (7.1 to 5.8) and Zone% (54.7 to 50), but his sinker is better overall thanks to its significant GB% advantage (60.8 to 34.1).

The sinker has a low spin rate of 1,966 RPM, only 74.2% of which is "active spin" that materially affects the ball's trajectory. While the pitch has no strikeout upside, it should continue to generate grounders. His fastball has a spin rate of 2,115 RPM that's too low to support strikeouts but not low enough to induce grounders. Both pitches grade out as poor.

Elder's wipeout pitch is a slider with a 16 SwStr%, 47 Zone%, and 35.7% chase rate. As a primary strikeout pitch, the whiff and chase rates are well below average. Elder also throws a change, but its 11 SwStr% is way too low for a pitch with a 30.6 Zone% and 30.9% chase rate. Most pitchers who don't get a lot of Ks have at least one pitch with strikeout upside, but Elder doesn't. Any strikeout surge would require a new pitch not currently featured in his repertoire.

Elder posted some impressive strikeout totals at the beginning of his MiLB career, but his more recent numbers don't provide much reason for optimism. He tossed 54 IP for the Braves last season and posted a 20.7 K%. Worse, he only managed a 22.2 K% at Triple-A last season. Strikeouts are a pitching category in most fantasy leagues, so Elder drags you down even if he continues to beat his expected ratios.

The Fantasy Future of Bryce Elder

Elder is due for significant regression no matter what ERA estimator you prefer. His xERA is 3.76, FIP 4.13, xFIP 4.15, and SIERA 4.39. He won't be a significant source of strikeouts either. Elder doesn't limit walks to a negligible number like George Kirby, so baserunners are a given too. Despite his surface stats, you're playing with fire every time you start him in fantasy. Heck, he allowed 7 ER in 3 1/3 IP against a slumping Rays team the day before the All-Star Break.

He still pitches for the best team in baseball though, so the best use case is streaming him for wins. Unfortunately, you can't really stream a pitcher with an ownership rate of 88%. Elder is a Chump who won't continue to produce as he has, so trade him while the ERA sparkles. You might even be able to pick him back up from waivers if you need wins down the stretch.

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