X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Bryce Elder: Champ or Chump for Fantasy Baseball?

Bryce Elder - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Injury News

The All-Star Break has arrived, giving fantasy managers a much-needed break from setting daily lineups. Of course, the most diligent fantasy managers will use this found time to negotiate trades, scour waivers, and look for ways to improve their roster for the second half.

One of the most important things to do is review your players and identify who's performing well, who might pick it up after the break, and who might be a liability moving forward. Even somebody with shiny surface stats could be a problem if their underlying metrics don't support it.

To that end, let's talk about National League All-Star Bryce Elder. The 24-year-old has a 2.97 ERA and a 7-2 record in 106 IP for the Braves, but nearly everything beyond that suggests massive regression fantasy managers don't want any part of. Here is a closer look at what should land this All-Star arm on waivers by the end of the year.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and weekly lineup resources:

 

Bryce Elder Has Been Lucky This Season

Whenever we evaluate a pitcher, his "luck metrics" are a good place to start. "Luck metrics" is in quotes because they aren't 100% luck, but they are more luck than skill in most cases. The metrics are BABIP, strand rate, and HR/FB. Elder has been fortunate thus far in all three categories.

First, Elder has a BABIP of .273 when the league average stands at .297. A low BABIP can prove sustainable if a team's defense is elite, but the Braves rank 19th in the league with -5 Outs Above Average and have -1 OAA when Elder is on the mound. Defense might be the closest thing the team has to a weakness. Extreme fly ball pitchers can also suppress BABIP by inducing harmless pop-ups, but Elder is an extreme ground ball pitcher whose 54.8 GB% ranks fifth among qualified pitchers.

Lest you think Elder has some kind of magical contact suppression ability, Baseball Savant's xStats suggest otherwise. His xBA of .254 is 17 points higher than his actual mark of .237, while his xSLG of .386 is 22 points higher than his actual slugging percentage against of .364. Barring some dramatic change, we should expect Elder to give up more hits moving forward.

Elder also has a strand rate of 81.5% when most pitchers are in the low 70s. Pitchers who consistently post strand rates of 80+% are strikeout artists who can get the K "when they need it" since they get it all of the time. Elder's 18.4% K% is substantially below the league average, meaning there's nothing in his profile suggesting he'll continue stranding all of these runners.

Finally, Elder's 12% HR/FB is very low for a ground ball specialist. Since they don't want the ball in the air, any ball that ends up in the air was likely a mistake. Elder hasn't been burned by this yet, but that doesn't mean he won't be.

 

Bryce Elder Doesn't Get Strikeouts

Elder has an 18.4 K% against a 7.8 BB% this season, giving him a 10.6 K-BB% that ranks 53rd among qualified pitchers. He's sandwiched between Drew Smyly (11.1%) and Johan Oviedo (10.5%), two arms that are streaming options at best in fantasy. It would be one thing if Elder's arsenal offered some strikeout upside, but it doesn't.

Elder ranks in the 8th percentile for fastball velocity. His sinker averages 89.7 mph, and his fastball is only slightly better at 90.8 mph. Hitters are torching both offerings, hitting .294/.392/.392 against his sinker and .300/.368/.500 against the fastball. His fastball wins by SwStr% (7.1 to 5.8) and Zone% (54.7 to 50), but his sinker is better overall thanks to its significant GB% advantage (60.8 to 34.1).

The sinker has a low spin rate of 1,966 RPM, only 74.2% of which is "active spin" that materially affects the ball's trajectory. While the pitch has no strikeout upside, it should continue to generate grounders. His fastball has a spin rate of 2,115 RPM that's too low to support strikeouts but not low enough to induce grounders. Both pitches grade out as poor.

Elder's wipeout pitch is a slider with a 16 SwStr%, 47 Zone%, and 35.7% chase rate. As a primary strikeout pitch, the whiff and chase rates are well below average. Elder also throws a change, but its 11 SwStr% is way too low for a pitch with a 30.6 Zone% and 30.9% chase rate. Most pitchers who don't get a lot of Ks have at least one pitch with strikeout upside, but Elder doesn't. Any strikeout surge would require a new pitch not currently featured in his repertoire.

Elder posted some impressive strikeout totals at the beginning of his MiLB career, but his more recent numbers don't provide much reason for optimism. He tossed 54 IP for the Braves last season and posted a 20.7 K%. Worse, he only managed a 22.2 K% at Triple-A last season. Strikeouts are a pitching category in most fantasy leagues, so Elder drags you down even if he continues to beat his expected ratios.

 

The Fantasy Future of Bryce Elder

Elder is due for significant regression no matter what ERA estimator you prefer. His xERA is 3.76, FIP 4.13, xFIP 4.15, and SIERA 4.39. He won't be a significant source of strikeouts either. Elder doesn't limit walks to a negligible number like George Kirby, so baserunners are a given too. Despite his surface stats, you're playing with fire every time you start him in fantasy. Heck, he allowed 7 ER in 3 1/3 IP against a slumping Rays team the day before the All-Star Break.

He still pitches for the best team in baseball though, so the best use case is streaming him for wins. Unfortunately, you can't really stream a pitcher with an ownership rate of 88%. Elder is a Chump who won't continue to produce as he has, so trade him while the ERA sparkles. You might even be able to pick him back up from waivers if you need wins down the stretch.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Player Profiles




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Carson Young24 mins ago

Hopes To Carry Recent Form To Bermuda
Miles Sanders26 mins ago

Panthers’ Miles Sanders Avoids Major Injury
Brandon Clarke48 mins ago

Questionable For Wednesday's Action
Kevin Yu49 mins ago

A Name To Watch At Butterfield Bermuda Championship
Marcus Smart59 mins ago

Picks Up Questionable Tag Ahead Of Wednesday
Fred VanVleet1 hour ago

Tagged As Questionable For Wednesday
Steven Adams1 hour ago

Questionable For Meeting With Clippers
Dorian Finney-Smith1 hour ago

In Danger Of Missing Another Game
Obi Toppin1 hour ago

Questionable For Wednesday Night
Anthony Davis2 hours ago

Expected To Play Wednesday
Connor McDavid2 hours ago

Leads Oilers To Victory With Four-Point Effort
Neal Pionk2 hours ago

Records Three Assists In Historic Win
Linus Ullmark2 hours ago

Records First Shutout As Senator
Hampus Lindholm2 hours ago

Taken Out By A Lower-Body Injury
Sam Bennett2 hours ago

Battling An Upper-Body Injury
Lars Eller2 hours ago

Returns To Washington
Shohei Ohtani10 hours ago

Among NL Silver Slugger Winners
Aaron Judge10 hours ago

Headlines AL Silver Slugger Winners
Desmond Ridder11 hours ago

Raiders Expected To Make The Change To Desmond Ridder At QB
Jose Alvarado12 hours ago

Out Against OKC
Zach LaVine12 hours ago

Back On The Injury Report For Wednesday
Luka Doncic13 hours ago

Cleared To Play Against The Warriors
Donovan Clingan13 hours ago

Starting Versus Minnesota
Deandre Ayton13 hours ago

Sidelined Versus The Timberwolves
Andrew Wiggins13 hours ago

Good To Go Versus The Mavs
P.J. Washington13 hours ago

Ruled Out Versus Golden State
Luka Doncic13 hours ago

Now A Game-Time Decision
Jusuf Nurkic14 hours ago

Out On Tuesday Night With Left-Ankle Soreness
Gary Trent Jr.14 hours ago

Active On Tuesday, Will Come Off Bench
Daniel Jones14 hours ago

Giants Potentially Moving On From Daniel Jones?
Tyreek Hill14 hours ago

Playing With Torn Ligament In His Wrist
Cameron Payne14 hours ago

Active On Tuesday, Will Face Former Team
Miles McBride15 hours ago

Active On Tuesday Against Sixers
Dereck Lively II15 hours ago

Returning On Tuesday
Andre Jackson Jr.15 hours ago

Available On Tuesday
Dallas Goedert15 hours ago

A Limited Participant On Tuesday
Dante Fabbro15 hours ago

Makes Blue Jackets Debut Tuesday
DeVonta Smith16 hours ago

Limited On Tuesday
Wander Franco16 hours ago

Now Facing Weapons Charges
Spencer Knight16 hours ago

Set To Face Devils Tuesday
Travis d'Arnaud16 hours ago

Agrees On Two-Year Deal With Angels
Logan Stanley16 hours ago

Added To Injured Reserve
Philipp Grubauer16 hours ago

Remains Out On Tuesday
Shane Pinto16 hours ago

Returns To Senators Lineup
Cam Fowler16 hours ago

Placed On Injured Reserve
Nico Collins16 hours ago

Expected To Practice This Week, Play On Monday Night
Robby Fabbri16 hours ago

Lands On Injured Reserve
Brendon Todd17 hours ago

A Hard Sell At Butterfield Bermuda Championship
Greyson Sigg17 hours ago

May Surprise In Bermuda
Jacob Bridgeman18 hours ago

In For Adventure At Port Royal Golf Course
Mark Hubbard18 hours ago

Plays Solid In Bermuda
Andrew Novak18 hours ago

Tries To Build Off ZOZO Championship
Daniel Berger19 hours ago

Looks To Continue His Consistent Run At Port Royal Golf Course
Justin Lower19 hours ago

Looks To Continue His Hot Play At Butterfield Bermuda Championship
Ben Griffin19 hours ago

Brings Solid Form And Good Course History To Bermuda
20 hours ago

Blue Jays, Red Sox To Meet With Juan Soto
Sam Stevens20 hours ago

In Good Form Heading To Bermuda
Doug Ghim20 hours ago

May Be Up For Bermuda
Seamus Power20 hours ago

Returns To Bermuda With Good Outlook
Najee Harris21 hours ago

Should Be Good Despite Dealing With Ankle Issue
Adam Thielen21 hours ago

Panthers Activate Adam Thielen From Injured Reserve
Isiah Pacheco22 hours ago

Chiefs Designating Isiah Pacheco To Return From Injured Reserve
Chicago Bears23 hours ago

Bears Fire Offensive Coordinator Shane Waldron
Dak Prescott23 hours ago

To Have Season-Ending Surgery
Dustin Wolf1 day ago

Cools Off Kings Monday
Mason Marchment1 day ago

Erupts For Five Points Versus Pittsburgh
Cole Caufield1 day ago

Takes Over Goal-Scoring Lead
Nick Suzuki1 day ago

Ends Dry Spell With Four-Point Effort
Jack Eichel1 day ago

Has Two Points In Losing Effort
Seth Jarvis1 day ago

Nursing An Upper-Body Injury
Anthony Mantha1 day ago

To Undergo Season-Ending Knee Surgery
Puka Nacua1 day ago

Targeted 14 Times Against Miami
Kyren Williams1 day ago

Fumbles, Fails To Find End Zone
Carolina Panthers2 days ago

Panthers Mum On Starting QB Heading Into Bye Week
Trevor Lawrence2 days ago

Jaguars Uncertain If Trevor Lawrence Can Play In Week 11
George Kittle2 days ago

Dealing With "Hamstring Irritation"
Amari Cooper2 days ago

Improving
DK Metcalf2 days ago

Seahawks Expect DK Metcalf Back At Practice On Wednesday
Brian Robinson Jr.2 days ago

Listed As Limited On Monday
Dallas Goedert2 days ago

Picks Up A DNP On Monday
Mattias Samuelsson2 days ago

Injured On Monday
Jasson Domínguez2 days ago

Yankees Expect Jasson Dominguez To Have A Big Role In 2025
Carlos Correa2 days ago

Progressing
Carlos Prates2 days ago

Gets Higlight-Reel Knockout Win At UFC Vegas 100
Neil Magny2 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Vegas 100
Cortavious Romious2 days ago

Drops Decision At UFC Vegas 100
Gaston Bolaños2 days ago

Gaston Bolanos Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Joey Logano2 days ago

Holds On At Phoenix To Win His Third Cup Series Championship
Los Angeles Dodgers2 days ago

Dodgers Considered Favorites For Roki Sasaki
Ryan Blaney2 days ago

Falls Short Of The 2024 Cup Series Title At Phoenix
Dusko Todorovic2 days ago

Gets TKO'd At UFC Vegas 100
Wander Franco2 days ago

Arrested On Monday After Altercation
Tyler Reddick2 days ago

Lacks Speed Of Other Championship 4 Contenders But Drives Well
William Byron2 days ago

Finishes Third In Phoenix Race And Championship
Miami Marlins3 days ago

Marlins Hire Clayton McCullough As New Skipper
Mansur Abdul-Malik3 days ago

Gets First-Round Finish At UFC Vegas 100
Luana Pinheiro3 days ago

Falls Short At UFC Vegas 100
Gillian Robertson3 days ago

Extends Win Streak At UFC Vegas 100
Gerald Meerschaert3 days ago

Gets Finished At UFC Vegas 100
MMA3 days ago

Reinier de Ridder Gets Submission Win In UFC Debut
3 days ago

Rays Have Interest In Juan Soto
NASCAR3 days ago

Bubba Wallace Is A Top DFS Recommendation With Upside For Phoenix
Tyler Reddick3 days ago

Is Expected To Compete For The Title At Phoenix
Joey Logano3 days ago

Is One Of The Favorites To Win At Phoenix
Kyle Larson3 days ago

Could Be A Favorable DFS Option For Phoenix Lineups
Corey Lajoie3 days ago

Corey LaJoie Will Start 20th At Phoenix
Brad Keselowski3 days ago

Is A Solid Recommendation For Phoenix DFS Lineups
Erik Jones3 days ago

Will Start 19th At Phoenix This Week
Carson Hocevar3 days ago

Will Compete For A Top-10 Finish At Phoenix
Ty Gibbs3 days ago

Should DFS Players Fade Ty Gibbs At Phoenix?
Chase Elliott3 days ago

Is Chase Elliott A Solid DFS Pick For Phoenix Lineups?
Ryan Blaney3 days ago

The Championship Favorite Despite Qualifying Blunder
William Byron3 days ago

Will Be Strong In Fight For Championship
Austin Cindric3 days ago

Is Austin Cindric Worth Rostering For Phoenix DFS Lineups?
Ross Chastain3 days ago

Is Great At Phoenix
Christopher Bell3 days ago

Looking To Go Back-To-Back At Phoenix After Championship Snub
Chase Briscoe3 days ago

Can Be Worth Rostering In Tournaments At Phoenix
Denny Hamlin3 days ago

Could Contend At Phoenix
4 days ago

Nick Martinez Expected To Accept Qualifying Offer
MLB4 days ago

Roki Sasaki Will Be Posted, Opens Door For 2025 MLB Debut
Nolan Arenado5 days ago

Could Be On The Trade Block
Zach Neto5 days ago

Undergoes Shoulder Surgery, Could Miss Start Of 2025
Mason Miller5 days ago

To Stay In The Bullpen
Shohei Ohtani5 days ago

Shoulder Surgery Could Delay His Pitching
New York Yankees5 days ago

Yankees Exercise Aaron Boone's Option
Carlos Prates5 days ago

Looks For His Fourth Win In A Row
Neil Magny5 days ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
MMA5 days ago

Benardo Sopaj Looks For His First UFC Win
Ricky Turcios5 days ago

Returns At UFC Vegas 100
Dusko Todorovic5 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Vegas 100
Mansur Abdul-Malik6 days ago

A Big Favorite At UFC Vegas 100
Luana Pinheiro6 days ago

Could Be Fighting For Job At UFC Vegas 100
Gillian Robertson6 days ago

Looks To Extend Win Streak At UFC Vegas 100
Reinier De ridder6 days ago

Reinier de Ridder Makes UFC Debut At UFC Vegas 100
Gerald Meerschaert6 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Vegas 100
6 days ago

Jeff Hoffman Could Enter Starting Rotation In 2025
6 days ago

Willy Adames Receives Offers From Mets And Dodgers
T.J. McFarland6 days ago

Re-Signs With The A's

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP