Breakout Tight Ends for Fantasy Football Drafts - Late Round ADP Values Include Chigoziem Okonkwo, Logan Thomas, more

August 10, 2023

Justin's potential fantasy football breakout tight ends and fantasy football TE sleepers for 2023 drafts. These TEs are being drafted with late round ADPs.

The tight end position tends to be a really weird position in fantasy. Travis Kelce is a consensus top-10 pick, Mark Andrews is either a second or third-rounder, and then there are a few more good players, but after the first seven tight ends, there's a pretty big drop-off.

Once you miss out on the top players, you might decide to go for a player with a chance to break out instead. Let's look at some tight ends who aren't being drafted as TE1s, but who have a chance to finish as one.

Below are three tight ends with late-round ADPs who have a chance to break out in 2023.

Chigoziem Okonkwo, Tennessee Titans

FantasyPros Consensus ADP: TE13

At this point, everyone's talked Okonkwo up. And after the Titans added DeAndre Hopkins, a lot of that hype has subsided. The targets we were all expecting—where would they come from now that Hopkins was on the team? It seemed like all that made the hype around Okonkwo die out some.

But you know what? I think it's time to get that hype back up. Sure, some of those targets are going to Hopkins, but this is still a team with a serious dearth of pass-catching options. You've got Hopkins and Treylon Burks and then, what...Nick Westbrook-Ikhine? Chris Moore? I tried the whole "think Kyle Philips will be good" thing in 2022, and I'm not interested in trying that again.

Okonkwo is still going to have opportunities, and I still believe he can do something with those opportunities. He's an incredible athlete, running a 4.52 40-yard dash, and that speed showed itself in his numbers last season. Per PlayerProfiler, he led all tight ends in yards per route run and yards per reception, as well as fantasy points per route run. On a per-play basis, his athleticism translated into production. But he was just 30th among tight ends in targets, which limited his upside.

I know people think the Titans will barely throw the ball this year. I'm not saying they'll go out there with guns blazing, but last year's Titans team suffered from starting Malik Willis three times. If you're wondering where more opportunities come from for Okonkwo despite the Hopkins addition, I think there are two ways that happens. One is just not starting Willis, a 50% passer who threw just 10 passes in his first career start and never had a 100-yard game. The other is Okonkwo taking the clear No. 1 tight end role, which should happen since Austin Hooper, second on the team in targets last year, is now playing in Vegas.

Irv Smith Jr., Cincinnati Bengals

FantasyPros Consensus ADP: TE21

It never ended up happening for Irv Smith Jr. in Minnesota. He came along slowly as most rookie tight ends do in 2019, then he missed some time in 2020 with an injury. After that, Smith missed all of 2021 and was also limited by a thumb injury in 2022. Now, he's in Cincinnati. Can Smith, a former second-round pick who looked like a future star when he was at Alabama, get back on track?

If it's going to happen, a pass-happy offense like the Bengals is definitely a good spot for him to land. The Bengals threw the seventh-most passes in the NFL last season and were also seventh in passing yards, plus sixth in completions. And while their tight end, Hayden Hurst, was just fifth on the team in targets, his 70 targets put him 12th among tight ends, and he was pretty unquestionably the top tight end on the team. Mitchell Wilcox was second among Bengals tight ends in targets with just 18.

A healthy Smith being given full rein of the tight end position? I'm intrigued. It's what we were supposed to see last year, but Minnesota traded for T.J. Hockenson and Smith was hurt, so we never really got to see that. Per RotoViz, Smith averaged 7.6 PPR points in the six games he played without Hockenson last year, vs. 4.8 in the two games he played with Hockenson.

Look, we've all been burned by Smith before, because we assume he'll be healthy and he just continues to not be. But this is a guy who runs a 4.63 40 and the last time he played a mostly full season in 2020, he was eighth among tight ends in both yards per target and yards per reception. There could be something here.

Logan Thomas, Washington Commanders

FantasyPros Consensus ADP: TE33

I know I know I know...we've all been burned by Logan Thomas hype before. In 2020, he caught 72 passes for 670 yards and six touchdowns, but then he played just six games in 2021. 2022 was supposed to be a bounce-back year for Thomas, but in 14 games, he managed just 39 receptions for 323 yards and one touchdown. Now, he's heading into his age-32 season with just one "good" season under his belt.

I understand everything I said above. But I also understand that there were some interesting signs with Thomas last year. He led all tight ends in target separation per PlayerProfiler, but he wasn't able to do a ton with that ability to get open, since he ranked 37th at the position in target accuracy. Hard to catch bad targets, right? There's no guarantee that the targets get more on target in 2023, but with either Sam Howell or Jacoby Brissett starting, there's theoretically some upside there.

But here's the thing that really intrigues me about Thomas: Eric Bieniemy. The Commanders poached Bieniemy from the Chiefs, where he'd been the OC for a really prolific offense that, notably, heavily featured tight end Travis Kelce.

Thomas isn't Kelce, but there are some similarities. They're an inch apart in height. They both ran 40s in the 4.6 range. They both line up in the slot a lot, with Kelce third and Thomas fifth last year among tight ends in slot snaps.

This offense might look like a poor man's version of the Chiefs. No one's saying Sam Howell is Patrick Mahomes, or that Logan Thomas is Travis Kelce. But there are similar traits with players at various positions in this offense, and that could lead to Thomas being used as a kind of store-brand Kelce. The Dollar Tree version of Travis Kelce won't be a top-five fantasy tight end, but he can be a top-15 fantasy tight end.

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