Breakout Relievers Who Will Keep Improving in 2020

March 10, 2020

Frank Ammirante looks at relief pitchers who he expects to improve in 2020 by diving into their advanced metrics. These RP options could be draft targets for fantasy baseball.

The closer role is one of the most volatile positions in fantasy baseball. They can lose their fantasy value with a couple of blow-up performances. Teams are also electing to utilize a committee approach, often using their best reliever in high-leverage situations rather than cementing them to the ninth inning. 

This makes it imperative to navigate the closing scene by identifying breakout relievers poised to sustain or improve on their production. Hitting on a reliever who follows up a breakout season with continued development is huge for your championship prospects.

The following relievers have demonstrated high-level skill sets typical in elite closers, with strong strikeout rates, home run suppression, and in-season improvement. Draft these relievers with confidence.

Giovanny Gallegos, St. Louis Cardinals

Gallegos improved across the board in 2019, striking out opposing hitters at a much higher rate. This was because his slider was much more effective - .303 xwOBAcon, 24.6 SwStr%, and 13.9 pitchVAL in 2019, compared to .323 xwOBAcon, 12.3 SwStr%, and -2.1 pitchVAL in 2018. Simply put, this was a dominant pitch that really helped Gallegos burst onto the scene. It was also encouraging to see how the young right-hander was able to trim his walk rate from 6.7 BB% to 5.7 BB%.

This is a player with tremendous upside - his 27.6 K-BB% ranked 15th among all relievers. The only closers with better K-BB% ratios were Josh Hader, Kirby Yates, Liam Hendriks, Ken Giles, Emilio Pagan, Edwin Diaz, Will Smith, and Taylor Rogers. Gallegos has a great opportunity to seize control of the closing role in St. Louis this season, with Carlos Martinez returning to the starting rotation and Jordan Hicks recovering from Tommy John surgery. 

Brandon Workman, Boston Red Sox

Workman has a cringe-inducing walk rate at 15.7 BB%, but his ability to consistently generate weak contact makes him a player to target. His 0.7% Brls/BBE ranked first in all of baseball. This elite barrel rate resulted in significant home run suppression, as Workman’s 0.13 HR/9 also was the best in MLB. We also saw substantial improvement in Workman’s strikeout rate, buoyed by his cutter (.341 xwOBAcon, 15.6 SwStr%, 6.8 pitchVAL) and knuckle curve (.288 xwOBAcon, 10.9 SwStr%, 12.4 pitchVAL).

Workman established himself as the Red Sox closer later in the season - his first save came on May 19th, as the Red Sox shuffled through Matt Barnes and Ryan Brasier before committing to Workman. Now entering the 2020 season firmly entrenched as the team’s closer, Workman has a great chance at 30 saves. 

Nick Anderson, Tampa Bay Rays

Anderson went from a solid reliever in Miami to quite possibly the most dominant reliever in baseball in Tampa Bay. His insane 50 K-BB% as a Ray leaves fantasy owners drooling over his upside should he secure the ninth-inning role. The Rays tinkered with Anderson’s pitch mix, increasing the use of his four-seamer by 13% while decreasing his curveball usage by nine percent and scrapping his slider.

Anderson generated more horizontal movement on his curveball in Tampa Bay, as his 1.0 H-Mov increased to 2.5 as a Ray. This made it a much more effective pitch (.105 xwOBAcon, 30.2 SwStr%, improving from .419 xwOBAcon and 24.0 SwStr%). It’s clear that the coaching staff in Tampa Bay knows what they’re doing, so I’m betting on sustained production from Anderson. Anderson has the upside to join the elite tier of closers if the Rays allow him to take over as closer without splitting time with Diego Castillo or Jose Alvarado. I would bet on this happening, so target him with confidence.

Hansel Robles, Los Angeles Angels

Robles supplanted incumbent Cody Allen as closer on April 30th and never looked back, turning in a solid season with decent strikeout numbers and strong home run suppression. Robles combines a 97 MPH four-seamer (.339 xwOBAcon, 10.9 SwStr%, 9.7 pitchVAL) with a great changeup (.273 xwOBAcon, 19.1 SwStr%, 6.7 pitchVAL).

It’s encouraging to see the way Robles rectified his control issues, improving his walk rate by 4.6%. Manager Joe Maddon has already confirmed that Robles will be the team’s closer, so it’s likely that he eclipses his save totals from 2019 since the Angels have made significant improvements in the offseason. While he was a bit lucky on batted balls last year (.280 BABIP, 82.3 LOB%), I’m bullish on Robles due to a profile that includes strikeout stuff, strong control, and home run suppression. 

Drew Pomeranz, San Diego Padres

After being traded to the Milwaukee Brewers at the deadline, Pomeranz transformed from a borderline fifth starter into an absolutely dominant reliever. In transitioning to the bullpen, Pomeranz scrapped his two-seamer and cutter, emphasizing his four-seamer and knuckle curve to become a two-pitch reliever. His velocity increased on both his four-seamer (94.3 MPH, up 2.1%) and knuckle curve (82.6 MPH, up 1.7%), which made them much more effective - four-seamer (.385 xwOBAcon, 18.2 SwStr%) and knuckle curve (.279 xwOBAcon, 13.7 SwStr%).

Pomeranz signed with the San Diego Padres this offseason, joining a slew of dominant relievers like Kirby Yates, Emilio Pagan, and Andres Munoz. It’s unlikely that he’ll receive any save opportunities due to the strong depth of this unit, but Pomeranz will be able to provide a boost to your ratios along with a great strikeout rate. Fantasy owners in holds league would be wise to pursue Pomeranz as a late-round option. 

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