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Jon Anderson looks at fantasy baseball breakout hitters, risers, and potential sleepers for the rest of the fantasy baseball season, written in Week 6 of the season. He looks into Statcast data to identify hitter breakouts.
We are back for the fourth iteration of breakout hitters! So far, we have done as predicted -- found some players that have kept up their production all season long and a few that were clearly just flashes in the pan. Names like Nolan Gorman and Miguel Vargas were looking great early on, but haven't given you much to like in the last couple of weeks. We've also been early on guys like Brandon Marsh, Jarred Kelenic, Ian Happ, and Brent Rooker -- and those names have continued to provide fantasy value week in and week out.
There will be different player profiles included in all of this. I try to keep the majority of the names as hitters that are available on waivers. Or at the very least, players you could trade for before the breakout really hits. However, sometimes I just want to highlight already highly regarded hitters that seem to be going to the next level. These would be considered "buy highs" that you could still try to pry away from their owner with a fair offer.
For full transparency, I also track the picks every week, so you can go back and see who I picked. There will be some misses, but hopefully, we'll have enough hits to make this a worthwhile endeavor. I'll give you the tracker first and then we'll get into the five names we're picking for this week.
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2023 Breakout Picks Tracker
| Week | Date | Breakout Picks |
| Week 3 | 4/12 | Logan O'Hoppe, Miguel Vargas, Nolan Gorman, Josh Lowe, Brandon Marsh |
| Week 4 | 4/19 | Jarred Kelenic, Ian Happ, Luis Garcia, Kerry Carpenter, Brent Rooker |
| Week 5 | 4/26 | Jack Suwinski, James Outman, Nico Hoerner, LaMonte Wade Jr., Cody Bellinger |
Week 6 Picks
Masataka Yoshida, Boston Red Sox
I will start with the least helpful recommendation of the week, and that is Yoshida. This isn't very helpful because he's certainly rostered in your league and the Yoshida manager is well aware of what he's been doing lately.
Over the first couple weeks of the season, Yoshida was showing that he could make contact at a great rate, but he was just pounding everything into the ground. His average launch angle was negative until very recently. About two weeks ago, something changed, and that has been on the steep incline as shown below.
That tweet pretty much sums it up. Yoshida is going to put a whole bunch of balls in play this year. If he can keep elevating the ball, he does have the swing speed to become an above-average power hitter (currently 56th percentile in barrel rate, 75th percentile in hard-hit, and 82nd percentile in expected slugging).
He's not a fast runner, but that hasn't stopped him from attempting two steals early on (6.5% steal attempt rate, just one point below the league average). Yoshida is a great guy to trade for if your team is in need of some batting average and run-scoring. He could pay off big time if this trend of lifting the ball continues.
Jarren Duran, Boston Red Sox
I'm not overly confident in this pick given that we've only seen 57 PAs out of Duran so far, but the production has been loud (.404/.421/.692, two HR, two SB) and there have been underlying improvements as well. So far, Duran is striking out less (a four-point improvement) and making more contact (a six-point improvement):
He's also hitting the ball harder on average, but that statistic is even more subject to randomness at this point with so few batted balls. The 15% Brl% and 25% K% are certainly a combination that will work out fine for fantasy purposes. It's extra special when it comes from a guy that can also steal a bunch of bases.
Again, this could very well be one of these guys that end up back on fantasy waiver wires or even back in the minor leagues very soon. To this point in his career, he hasn't shown the ability to handle MLB pitching, but it is still worthy of note that he was a highly-touted prospect coming up and certainly has some interesting skills. I think we can add Duran for now, but let's not be afraid to cut bait if the production stops coming.
Jonah Heim, Texas Rangers
Heim almost made the list last week, but I didn't quite believe in him so I decided to wait another week. Well, the hits haven't stopped coming and now I wish I would have been a week or two earlier on him. No catcher has returned better production given their cost than Heim, and it hasn't been particularly close.
Fantasy Points Leaders - Catchers
| Player | PA | Points |
| Sean Murphy | 104 | 262 |
| Adley Rutschman | 127 | 226 |
| Jonah Heim | 88 | 216 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 106 | 204 |
| Cal Raleigh | 96 | 194 |
Heim is right behind Rutschman and well ahead of the other catchers that were drafted ahead of him. The crazy part is that it's pretty much completely backed up by the underlying metrics. Here's what Heim has done this year relative to the league average:
| Stat | Heim | League |
| Brl% | 14.3% | 8.2% |
| Brl/PA | 10.2% | 5.5% |
| K% | 15.9% | 23.0% |
| Contact% | 78.3% | 74.0% |
It's still early, of course. Heim isn't some burgeoning young prospect, but it's becoming pretty hard to deny his performance.
I don't see any reason he shouldn't be universally rostered right now since he plays catcher. Pick him up and ride it out.
Edward Olivares, Kansas City Royals
Low Strikeout Rate? ✓
Speed/Steal Attempts? ✓
Above Average Pop? ✓
Olivares has been toying with us for a couple of years now. For whatever reason, the Royals have been hesitant to give him everyday reps in the outfield, but that has changed so far in 2023. He is second on the team in PAs by an outfielder and unsurprisingly has rewarded them at the plate to the tune of a .289/.344/.482 slash line with two homers and three steals.
It's possible that the guy's defense is just so bad that the club isn't convinced his offensive production makes up for it. While he's in the real lineup, he should be in more fantasy lineups than he currently is.
Since 2021, Olivares has racked up a 19.3% K% and a 7.2% Brl% in the major leagues across 374 PAs. If you extrapolate his production to a 600 PA season, you're looking at about 18 homers and 20 steals. That's not even considering the new rules that have boosted steals so much. You have a 20-20 threat here if he can stick in the lineup, and he's available in almost all leagues.
Now that's a lot of positive talk. The downside is that he hits a few too many ground balls (45% career, but that is down to 38% this year), and he hits in one of the worst parks imaginable (it might actually be the worst now with the changes Detroit made). But how often can you get a guy that hits you 15+ homers, steals you 20+ bases, and hits for a good batting average on waivers? It doesn't happen very often, so let's jump on him now.
Jorge Mateo, Baltimore Orioles
Mateo is probably owned in your league, and he might even qualify as a sell-high right now given that a lot of the stuff we've seen from him doesn't make a ton of sense given his history. It's also possible that something unexpected has happened and he'll truly be one of the more valuable roto fantasy baseball hitters of the year.
We knew Mateo was an elite base stealer coming into this year, and nothing has changed there:
SB Attempt Rate Leaders, 2023
| Player | SB Att% | SB |
| Ji Hwan Bae | 54.5% | 11 |
| Jorge Mateo | 52.4% | 10 |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 46.2% | 11 |
| Corbin Carroll | 44.4% | 10 |
| Starling Marte | 42.9% | 9 |
No surprise that Mateo is near the top of the league in steals. What is surprising, however, is the power he's provided. Mateo has already blasted six homers and is slugging a ridiculous .667 early on. There's no doubt that the home run rate and slugging percentage are overperformances. Under the hood, there is a ton of reason for optimism.
2021-2022 vs. 2023: Hitters With Improved K% and Exit Velocity
Mateo has cut his strikeouts in a ridiculous manner. He's down from 27.2% to 14.5%, and he hasn't done that by swinging the bat more softly -- he's also raised his average exit velocity by 3.6 miles per hour. This is an unreal change, and Mateo should absolutely be started (not rostered, started) in 100% of leagues. Go get him if he's available and send your league mates personal thank you cards.
That's it, and that's all for another edition of breakout hitters. Thanks for checking it out, we'll be back with more next week!
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