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Joshua Costello looks at fantasy baseball breakout hitters, risers, and potential sleepers for the rest of the season, written in Week 13. He looks into Statcast data to identify hitter breakouts.
Welcome RotoBallers to our fantasy baseball breakout hitters article for Week 13. As always, we are here to bring you a few MLB hitters whose advanced metrics are popping out.
My name is Joshua Costello, and I'll be filling in for Jon Anderson with this weekly article, giving you 3-5 hitter names that seem to have sustainable improved production this season. Most of these names will be young hitters because that is the nature of a breakout. There will be exceptions from time-to-time as well as I give you more well-known and well-established names that seem to have made a change to their profile this year.
For full transparency, I also track the picks every week, so you can go back and see who I picked. There will be some misses, but hopefully, we'll have enough hits to make this a worthwhile endeavor. I'll give you the tracker first, and then we'll get into the four names we're picking for this week.
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2023 Breakout Picks Tracker
| Week | Date | Breakout Picks |
| Week 3 | 4/12 | Logan O'Hoppe, Miguel Vargas, Nolan Gorman, Josh Lowe, Brandon Marsh |
| Week 4 | 4/19 | Jarred Kelenic, Ian Happ, Luis Garcia, Kerry Carpenter, Brent Rooker |
| Week 5 | 4/26 | Jack Suwinski, James Outman, Nico Hoerner, LaMonte Wade Jr., Cody Bellinger |
| Week 6 | 5/2 | Masataka Yoshida, Jarren Duran, Jonah Heim, Edward Olivares, Jorge Mateo |
| Week 7 | 5/9 | Ezequiel Duran, Triston Casas, Joey Gallo, Zach McKinstry, Ke'Bryan Hayes |
| Week 8 | 5/16 | Alex Kirilloff, Matt McLain, Zach Neto, Taylor Walls |
| Week 9 | 5/23 | Josh Jung, Brett Baty, Ryan Noda, Esteury Ruiz |
| Week 10 | 5/30 | Riley Greene, Leody Taveras, Seiya Suzuki |
| Week 11 | 6/8 | Luke Raley, Keibert Ruiz, Lane Thomas, Jake Burger |
| Week 12 | 6/15 | Evan Longoria, Tommy Pham, Anthony Rendon, Miguel Rojas |
Let's get to the picks for Week 13!
Max Kepler, Minnesota Twins
Max Kepler has been a consistently good player in his career. He hits for decent power, walks a reasonable amount, doesn't strike out too much, and is a plus defender. This season, Kepler is still looking for his rhythm at the plate. Let's figure out why and if he can turn it around.
One of the main reasons Kepler has yet to find his rhythm is his lack of playing time. Through the Minnesota Twins' first 74 games, Kepler has only played in 47 of them. This can be attributed to missing time due to injury and getting benched against left-handed pitching. In his career, the veteran slugger is only batting .210 against left-handed pitching, so it's understandable that the Twins would like to go in a different direction for those situations.
Despite his struggles with limited playing time, Kepler's expected stats suggest that positive regression is coming.
The 30-year-old slugger is batting below .200, striking out over 22% of the time and walking less than 8% for the first time in his career. Those metrics are likely to stabilize throughout the season with more playing time. His xBA of .245 and xSLG of .463 align with his career averages. Kepler also has the highest HardHit% and Barrel% of his career, so good things should start happening soon.
The left-handed hitter has six games next week against the Atlanta Braves and Baltimore Orioles. In those two series, Kepler could face right-handed starters in every game. Seven of Kepler's eight home runs have come against right-handed pitching this season. The veteran slugger is also hitting fly balls at the highest rate of his career, and his 14.8% HR/FB% is among the highest rates of his career.
Fantasy managers have seen Kepler be relevant in the past, and when the weather heats up, the fly balls could start leaving the yard more often. Kepler seems bound to heat up, and his home run on Wednesday night may be a sign of things to come.
Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles
Gunnar Henderson was widely considered one of baseball's best prospects before his 34-game stint with the Orioles last season. Coming into this season, Henderson was projected to be one of the biggest breakouts of the year, but things have yet to go to plan.
The 22-year-old infielder has struggled mightily at the plate, striking out in nearly 30% of his plate appearances. Henderson is also slashing .236/.340/.448 this season, which would be a step down from the numbers he put up last season, but there have been signs that he's turning it around. Since mid-April, Henderson's Hard% has climbed steadily to above 45%. After batting below.215 through the first two months, Henderson is batting .347 with five home runs and 12 RBI in June.
The former top prospect has cooled off a little in the past week, but he had some eventful games the week prior. In the second week of June, Henderson had a five-game stretch in which he collected 12 hits, four home runs, and 10 RBI. According to his Baseball Savant page, the young third baseman is hitting balls hard and drawing walks as well as anyone.
Fantasy managers who held on during Henderson's rough start should feel encouraged by his successful June, and those who wish to acquire him might be able to capitalize on his quiet week. Henderson seems like he's here to stay.
Jeimer Candelario, Washington Nationals
Candelario has been a popular breakout candidate for years, but he never seemed to put it all together. Candelario has made a few changes this season which leads me to believe he's improved.
Candelario is slashing .256/.333/.446 with eight home runs and 30 RBI this year. None of those numbers are particularly eye-popping, but his .446 SLG would be the highest career mark outside of the shortened 2020 season. Candelario is also striking out in less than 20% of his plate appearances for the first time. The 29-year-old has also made some contact improvements.
Candelario has a 79.1% Contact% and 87.1% Zone-Contact% this season, both of which would be among the best marks of his career. Improved contact, strikeout rate, and defense are all positive indicators of growth for Candelario. The veteran slugger is also at eight home runs as we approach the halfway point, which puts him on pace to challenge his career-high of 19 home runs. Fantasy managers looking for corner infield help can turn to Candelario, who appears to have made valuable improvements.
Andy Ibanez, Detroit Tigers
To round out this list, we have a veteran hitter who's been in and out of the majors for the last few years. Andy Ibanez has been a serviceable contact hitter in his professional career, but he has yet to have the chance to display his talent for an entire season. He made his major league debut with the Texas Rangers in 2021 and spent 76 games with the club before returning to Triple-A in 2022.
Ibanez has demonstrated the ability to put the ball in play, striking out less than 17% of the time. This season, Ibanez has also shown improved quality of contact metrics. Through 46 games, Ibanez has improved his Barrel%, Average Exit Velocity, xBA, xSLG, and HardHit%. Ibanez's current batting average sits at .233, and his xBA is .289 based on his quality of contact. His HardHit% sits at 51.9%, putting him right around Shohei Ohtani, Jake Burger, and Adolis Garcia.
Ibanez has been playing nearly every day for the Detroit Tigers since he has some positional versatility. The 30-year-old hitter has some deep league appeal because he can slot in at second base, third base, and outfield. If the opportunity for playing time continues, I expect Ibanez's actual stats to start creeping toward his lofty expected stats.
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