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Joshua Costello looks at fantasy baseball breakout hitters, risers, and potential sleepers for the rest of the season, written in Week 19. He looks into Statcast data to identify hitter breakouts.
Welcome RotoBallers to our fantasy baseball breakout hitters article for Week 19. As always, we are here to bring you a few MLB hitters whose advanced metrics are popping out.
My name is Joshua Costello, and I will be giving you 3-5 hitter names that seem to have sustainable improved production this season. Most of these names will be young hitters because that is the nature of a breakout. There will be exceptions from time-to-time as well as I give you more well-known and well-established names that seem to have made a change to their profile this year.
For full transparency, I also track the picks every week, so you can go back and see who I picked. There will be some misses, but hopefully, we'll have enough hits to make this a worthwhile endeavor. I'll give you the tracker first, and then we'll get into the four names we're picking for this week.
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2023 Breakout Picks Tracker
Let's get to the picks for Week 19!
Corey Seager, Texas Rangers
Texas Rangers shortstop Corey Seager has been a good player to begin his career, but he has been phenomenal this season when healthy, and we need to break down just how good he has been. Seager would be second in the National League batting title race if he qualified, behind Luis Arraez and ahead of Freddie Freeman. The Rangers slugger would lead the NL in OPS and only trail Shohei Ohtani for the best OPS across both leagues.
Seager has been one of the best hitters in baseball since his debut, but his expected stats have often been much better than his actual numbers. The former Dodgers star has always hit the ball hard and often to the pull side, which played right into the defense's hands when the shift was still in effect. For that reason, Seager was predicted to be one of the biggest risers with the shift being largely eliminated, and he has not disappointed.
In 2023, the Rangers shortstop has a batting average of .347, supported by his xBA of .335. Seager has often had xBA number in the top 10% of the league, but suffered due to the defensive arrangements that could be made to derail his success in the past. Now that Seager has been unleashed, baseball fans finally see the player Dodgers fans always knew he was. The 29-year-old slugger has reached new heights this season and should continue to shine as long as he's healthy.
Josh Naylor, Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians first baseman Josh Naylor has been an exciting player to watch since his days with the San Diego Padres. Still, he has primarily been a platoon hitter during his time with the Guardians. The left-handed hitting first baseman is a career .231 hitter against left-handed pitching, but he has found a way to turn that around this season. In 102 plate appearances against left-handed pitching this season, Naylor is batting .289 with four home runs and seven doubles.
The 26-year-old first baseman has been hitting so well that the Guardians have no choice but to start him daily. Naylor is slashing .306/.346/.500 with 15 home runs and 79 RBI in 96 games this season, and Statcast's expected statistics support his numbers. His .296 xBA supports Naylor's .306 batting average, and his .491 xSLG supports his .500 SLG. The young first baseman is not hitting balls especially hard, but he is making excellent contact and putting balls in play.
Fantasy managers who drafted or picked up Naylor this year must be beyond satisfied with his production level this season. Naylor has the highest launch angle of his career, translating into better production in the batting average department. The Guardians' first baseman also has the highest barrel rate, sweet spot rate, and BABIP of his career. The combination of those stats going his way could explain why he's doing so well. Naylor has been raking and should continue to rake.
Lars Nootbaar, St Louis Cardinals
St Louis Cardinals outfielder Lars Nootbaar has been one of the most improved players in baseball, raising his batting average from .228 to .279 in a single season. There could be several reasons for this jump. Nootbaar is a left-handed hitter, and 2023 is the first year the shift has been banned. Left-handed hitters were significantly affected by the shift, and lefties, like Corey Seager, have seen some dramatic improvements this season.
Nootbaar's tendencies have also changed from last season. The Cardinals outfielder has decreased his pull rate by nine percent, dropping from 42.4% to 33.5%. This decrease in pull rate has translated to more batted balls going to the center and opposite field. Driving the ball up the middle more often, going oppo, and getting more hits when pulling the ball add up to a significantly better batting average. The young slugger's BABIP of .330 could also help in the batting average department.
Nootbaar also appears to be a much more patient hitter at the plate this season. In 2023, the young outfielder has the lowest swing percentage and lowest out-of-zone swing percentage of his career. Nootbaar is swinging less often but also making more contact than ever. The 25-year-old has an 82.8% contact percentage and an 88.7% zone-contact percentage. Nootbaar is seeing the ball well this season because he's swinging less but making contact more often than ever.
Adam Frazier, Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore Orioles second baseman Adam Frazier has been one of the most unlucky players in baseball this season regarding batting average. Frazier is batting .243 but owns an xBA of .281, which ranks 87th percentile in the league. The bad batting average luck could be attributed to his abysmal .238 BABIP, the lowest of his career. Despite his unluckiness, Frazier still has a few things to offer fantasy managers.
Frazier does not hit the ball particularly hard; he hits the ball softer than most of the league. Frazier's average exit velocity and HardHit% are both 5th percentile or lower, which does not bode well for power production, but he makes up for it in another way. Despite not hitting hard, Frazier has hit a career-high 13 home runs this season. The 31-year-old has a launch angle of 13.9, which is ideal for line drives and low-arching fly balls. Frazier's launch angle lets him get the most power out of his swing.
The Orioles infielder has been heating up lately, and it may be soon that his batting average starts looking more like his xBA. In the last seven days, Frazier is 8-for-22 with three home runs, a double, and five RBI. Frazier is likely available in most leagues, and fantasy managers should look to acquire him if he is available.
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