Is Brandon Woodruff Still An Ace?

In all aspects of life, it can be very common to strive for immediate gratification. Sure, we would all love to play the long game and remain as responsible as possible, but, at some point, it's hard to pass up instant reward. I can't think of a better illustrator of this than sports, and specifically baseball. A 162-game season is quite long, but after an extended offseason, it is natural to want to have immediate takeaways from the season. Small sample size be damned, if you're not early, you're late, am I right?

Nevertheless, while we should utilize new information to alter our evaluations of players, it is also important to decipher the significant data from information that may be less relevant. Sometimes, simplicity is best, and although it is in all of our journalist DNA, regardless of your occupation, to try to find a story, we also need to make sure the story we are trying to tell actually exists.

When a player starts off the year slowly, it is sensible to try to identify whether the struggles will continue or not. As much as you want to assume a player will get better, there are sometimes indications that we should be pessimistic about that happening, and every player is their own case study. Today's case study? Brewers starting pitcher Brandon Woodruff. The results haven't been there yet, but there is reason for hope. Let's take a closer look at an ultra-talented pitcher. You can also read about other in-depth player breakdowns in this "Still A Stud?" series.

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From 11th-Round Pick To Ace

When you think of an ace, the most common vision is a phenom pitcher who is drafted at the top of the draft either out of high school or college, a la Gerrit Cole. That being said, not all players have the same trajectory.

Now, as someone drafted in the fifth round of the 2011 MLB Draft, Woodruff was certainly not an unknown prospect coming out of high school. That being said, he chose to bet on himself and forgo signing with the Rangers to attend Mississippi State University, where things unfortunately went south.

In three college seasons, Woodruff only pitched 90 innings, while he had just a 16.06% strikeout rate and 12.41% walk rate during his final two seasons in college. Due to these struggles, he never worked his way into a full-time spot in the rotation, and completely fell off the radar in terms of draft coverage. Ultimately, he ended up being selected in the 11th round by the Brewers, which was certainly not the expected outcome when he first went to Mississippi State.

Initially, with just a 15.5% strikeout rate and an 8.3% K-BB ratio as a 22-year-old in High-A, it seemed as though Woodruff's struggles may continue at the pro level. Yet, in 2016, it all seemed to click for him; not only did he pitch 158 innings between High-A and Double-A, but he did so with a 27.3% strikeout rate and a 21% K-BB ratio. It's not uncommon for pitchers to tap into the ability to miss bats later on by optimizing their arsenal properly, and that appears to have happened with Woodruff.

Although this was enough for Baseball America to rank him as the 82nd-best prospect in baseball, that was the only major prospect outlet to have him as a top-100 prospect. That changed after he work his way up to make his MLB debut in 2017, though with a 21.3% strikeout rate in Triple-A and a 17.4% strikeout in the majors, his ability to miss bats at a high level was still in question. Based on this report by MLB Pipeline, he certainly seemed to profile more as a steady innings-eater than a true frontline starter:

"Woodruff's fastball operates at 93-95 mph with late sinking action that helps him miss barrels and consistently generate ground-ball outs. His slider is the better of his two secondary pitches, receiving above-average grades from scouts, though his changeup has the chance to be at least a Major League-average offering. Woodruff battled control and command problems at Mississippi State, but the right-hander has proven to be a more consistent strike-thrower as a pro, especially after he adopted a more athletic and balanced delivery in 2016.Woodruff may miss fewer bats as he continues to climb the Minor League ladder, but he has the requisite command of three average-or-better pitches, not to mention strong ground-ball tendencies, to develop into a No. 3 or 4 starter."

Obviously, though, this is not where the story ends. Sometimes, you could be staring at an ace and not even realize that, which has turned out to be the case with Woodruff. How did this happen? It's a very interesting development.

Brandon Woodruff's Unique Approach + Ascension

After all, it's not as though Woodruff' ascension to ace happened suddenly. In fact, in 2018, he started the year back down in Triple-A, struggling to the tune of a 21.9% strikeout rate and 11.6% K-BB ratio. When called back up to the majors, he mainly pitched out to the bullpen, so while the results were strong (18.8% K-BB, 3.26 skill interactive ERA/SIERA), they had to be taken with a grain of salt for obvious reasons.

With Woodruff transitioning into the rotation in 2019, the natural expectation that his numbers would be worse than they were in the bullpen, simply based on historical examples. Instead, he vaulted to another level, posting a 22.9% K-BB ratio in 121.2 innings pitched. Worried about him repeating those numbers? He then was even better (31.1% K, 24.9% K-BB ratio) during the shortened 2020 season.

By this point, it became very clear Woodruff had the makings of an impact frontline starter, but we still hadn't yet seen him handle a sizable workload. Well, that changed in 2021; he posted a 29.8% strikeout rate, 23.7% K-BB ratio, and 3.31 SIERA through 179.1 innings and 30 starts. Really, what more was there to ask from him?

So, what has made Woodruff so effective? A lot of it is tied to his fastball. Simply just take a look at Woodruff's velocity gains, which correlate very well with his ascension as an ace:

BRANDON WOODRUFF AVERAGE FASTBALL VELOCITY BY SEASON

• 2017: 94.3 MPH
• 2018: 95.1 MPH
• 2019: 96.3 MPH
• 2020: 96.6 MPH
• 2021: 96.5 MPH

Remember, 2018 came with Woodruff pitching mainly out of the bullpen. It's easy to think of velocity as a natural skill, which it mainly is. That being said, when it comes to gaining a few ticks of velocity to take the next step, there are many different training techniques, such as weighted ball programs, now widely used to assist in that development.

This would be significant for any pitcher, but it is extra significant for Woodruff. He's thrown his four-seam fastball + sinker on over 60% of his pitches in every season as a pro, which differs greatly from the general trend in modern pitching, emphasizing decreased fastball usage. That makes Woodruff an outlier in this regard, but he's fortunate that his four-seam fastball has grown into a tremendously effective pitch:

BRANDON WOODRUFF FOUR-SEAM FASTBALL WHIFF RATE BY SEASON

• 2017: 17.3%
• 2018: 21.1%
• 2019: 26.7%
• 2020: 33.6%
• 2021: 30.5%

Velocity wasn't the only aspect of Woodruff's fastball that improved. Take a look at the extra ride he was able to get on this pitch:

Improved fastball velocity and a drastic change in terms of its shape? Yeah, that will work.

The best part? He's not just a one-trick pony. His curveball (31.8% whiff), changeup (41% whiff), and slider (30.6%) were all very productive pitches for his last season, and all have been beneficiaries of him developing and refining them.

Thus, we're talking about a pitcher with an elite fastball, a true five-pitch mix, and stellar command. Heck, he seemed to also appear to have some uncanny ability for limiting hard contact, which, although hard to trust, does become more difficult to ignore over a larger sample size. When listing out every pitcher heading into the 2022 season, it was hard to not list him in the top-five, while he seemed to be as steady and reliable as a pitcher could be, he had no discernible weakness. Unfortunately, the surface-level results haven't been there for him so far.

2022 Woodruff: A Case Where ERA Lies Again

Through 33 innings and seven starts this season, it's been a bumpy road for Woodruff, who has posted a 5.35 ERA thus far. So, clearly, there's a crisis that should be paid attention to right? Fortunately, that wouldn't appear to be the case.

Well, for starters, practically every natural "advanced metric" points to natural regression for Woodruff, who is underperforming his FIP (3.72), xFIP (3.37), and SIERA (3.15) by a notable margin. Why? His .333 batting average on balls in play allowed (BABIP) is quite high, while his 61% left-on-base rate is quite low. Based on the most standard indicators, we can see that Woodruff's ERA clearly is inflated by poor luck that should correct itself with a larger sample size.

The other main difference for Woodruff this year has been that he's simply been allowing more hard contact; his barrel rate allowed (8.8%), hard-hit rate allowed (48.4%), and average exit velocity allowed (89.4 MPH). Fortunately, studies have shown that pitchers don't tend to have much control over the quality of contact they allow, particularly in a small sample size. Simply take a look at the reliability values of each major Baseball Savant pitcher statistic, as looked at by Cameron Grove:

The average qualified starting pitcher has faced around 120 to 130 batters so far this season.

That gives these reliability values. pic.twitter.com/sWEvvs91ad

— Cameron Grove (@Pitching_Bot) May 8, 2022

At this point, statistics involving quality of contact, such as barrel rate, hard-hit rate, average exit velocity allowed, and xERA don't have enough of a sample size to be reliable, and still are mainly unstable on a year-to-year basis. Fortunately, Woodruff's whiff rate (30.5), strikeout rate (28.9%), swinging-strike rate (13.7%), and expected strikeout rate (27.9%) are all better or in line with where they were last year. Meanwhile, based on Eno Sarris'  stuff+ (111.2) and pitching+ (111) model, which is incredibly useful in smaller sample sizes, Woodruff's arsenal is roughly the same as last year. Thus, there isn't much, if anything to be concerned about.

If there is one nitpick with Woodruff's early numbers, he's allowing more fly-balls (43.3%) than ever. Thus, even though his home run/fly ball rate (12.8%) is roughly the same as it was last year (12.7%), his HR/9 (1.34) is up notably. That, along with a slightly higher walk rate (8.1%), has hurt his fielding-independent numbers.

Although pitchers do have control over the trajectory of contact they allow, it's still too early to believe a pitcher with a career 46.4% ground-ball rate won't eventually limit fly balls eventually,  while the walk rate is still a very small concern at this point; it is slightly inflated by his first start (13.6%) this season. In fact, after a slow start to the season, he has a 36.1% strikeout rate, 15.3% swinging-strike rate, and 2.37 SIERA. All small sample size numbers, of course, but how could we be worried about a pitcher with those numbers?

Woodruff's fastball has been as effective getting whiffs in the zone (20.9%), while he's leaned off of his curveball, which he has struggled to get a feel for this season. That being said, we're still talking about a pitcher with a strong fastball, a lethal changeup (59.7% whiff), and an improved slider that has been more of a sharper pitch with less drop this season. As much as you'd to take away something from this, it's still more likely that the effectiveness improves over time, especially since the fastball (26.9% whiff) has still been quite effective over time.

Sometimes, poor batted-ball luck can continue due to playing behind a poor defense or in a tough ballpark. Yet, Woodruff pitches behind the defensive with the fifth-highest defensive runs saved last season, as well as a ballpark that actually has a below-average park factor for left-handed hitters. Plus, he'll still get plenty of games against a NL Central barren of offensive talent. In other words, though the rest of the season, there is no reason to not expect ace-like numbers that he was expected to have this season.

Brandon Woodruff Overview

Oftentimes in life, we have the tendency to want to create a story. Sometimes, though, the real story is that there is no story.

That couldn't be more applicable than with Brandon Woodruff this season. Simply looking at the classic signals of poor luck can point to significant improvement from his ERA, but even some of his fielding-independent numbers should improve, considering his arsenal is practically the same as last year, if not better.

The trajectory for Woodruff in terms of becoming an ace is rather fascinating. Regardless of how the development occurred, he's a tremendous example that aces can sometimes come where you least expect them to, and that has been the case here. The Brewers have built arguably the league's best rotation between a pitcher selected in the fourth round (Corbin Burnes), a pitcher elected in the 11th round (Woodruff), and a lowly-regarded prospect traded for Adam Lind (Freddy Peralta), and that should not go under the radar.

From a fantasy perspective, Woodruff is an obvious buy-low target in all formats should a fantasy manager be too concerned about his ERA, which can happen. It can be hard to stick with a pitcher through his struggles, especially for an impatient manager. From a real-life baseball standpoint, from this point forward, the Brewers should be back to having an elite three-headed monster in their rotation to try to lead them to the promised land, and Woodruff will be a critical part of that. Even though the panic button is right by your side, continue to disregard it when it comes to him.

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