August 19, 2016

Jake Bogardus continues his series of articles predicting breakout players who could finish as the #1 scorer their position with the wide receiver position and Brandin Cooks

Earlier this week, I covered why Eli Manning qualifies as a QB1 contender and how Carlos Hyde's underlying numbers and new coach give him RB1 upside.

The point of those articles has been to identify players that are currently outside of the top 10 draftees at their respective positions, but have ceilings that will land them at the top of their position come season end. Today, we move on to the new sexiest position in fantasy sports, wide receivers.

Editor's Note: Purchase a full season NFL Premium Pass (including Draft Kit + DFS Premium), and also get MLB Premium + DFS for free through October. Premium DFS lineup picks, expert lineups, tools and more - seven days a week. You can see screenshots of our NFL Premium and MLB Premium and DFS tools. What are you waiting for?

A Deeper Dive Into Brandin Cooks

First, let's play a little blind resume for Wide Receivers in their first two seasons in the league as full time players:

Player 1 - 5'10" 180 LBS, 4.47 40 yard dash, 29 games, 230 targets, 135 catches, 1895 yards, 65.3 yards/game, 7 TD

Player 2 - 5'10" 189 LBS, 4.33 40 yard dash, 26 games, 198 targets, 137 catches, 1688 yards, 64.9 yards/game, 12 TD

The first player here is Antonio Brown in his age 23 and 24 seasons. Brown has followed those two years up with one of the greatest three year wide receiver runs of all time, averaging 125 catches for 1677 yards and 10 touchdowns per season, all while becoming the consensus number 1 fantasy choice for the upcoming season. As recently as just three years ago, many fantasy football owners would have laughed at the idea of an "undersized" receiver becoming the best player in the game. Antonio Brown has proved those people wrong and has paved the way for smaller receivers like Odell Beckham and Player #2 to become WR1 options. Player 2, of course, is the Saints explosive playmaker Brandin Cooks.

Let's keep the comparison going. Brown has done two things that Cooks will have to be able to replicate to become the number 1 receiver in fantasy land. First, Brown has done an incredible job in getting open and demanding Big Ben get him the football. Brown has averaged 180 targets per season over the past three year (11.25 per game) and has been remarkably consistent. It's  To this point in his career, Cooks has averaged only 7.6 targets per game which equates to about 122 targets over a 16 game season. Now, these numbers aren't much different than Brown's first two year's as a full time player, but Cooks will have to see the same astronomical jump that Brown has managed in order to challenge for the WR1 fantasy spot at year's end. The good news is that Cooks' target numbers already appear to be on the rise as he averaged 8.5 per game over his last 10 games in 2015 and is only building a greater rapport with QB Drew Brees as he becomes the leader of the wide receiver corps in New Orleans.

The second key to Brown's success has been taking those 11.25 targets per game and converting them into receptions. Brown has a catch percentage of 69.3% over the past three seasons. Amazingly enough, Cooks has almost matched that with his own catch percentage of 69.1% during his first two seasons in the league. Since targets became an official stat in 1992, among receivers with at least 125 receptions in their first two seasons, only Jarvis Landry has bettered Cooks' catch percentage. With the always accurate Drew Brees still behind center for the Saints, there is no reason to believe that Cooks can't maintain his impressive catch percentage in 2016.

It sounds like an easy formula, get open, get targeted, convert those targets into catches. Sometimes it's important to adhere to the KISS principle in fantasy football and just "Keep It Simple, Stupid." Brandin Cooks has more than enough talent to follow in Antonio Brown's footsteps and convert on this WR1 formula. I believe Cooks becomes the target hog that we have dreamt about watching his first two seasons and cashes in on those targets in the form of a 1500 yard and double digit TD year. That should put him right in the mix of things for WR1 and drafting him anywhere near his current 27.5 overall ADP according to RotoBaller will put your team right in the mix of things for a fantasy championship.

NFL & Fantasy Football Chat Room

[iflychat_embed id="c-0" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]