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The Boston Red Sox have struggled with losses and injuries, making them possible sellers at the MLB trade deadline. Mark Kieffer evaluates key players on offense to see whether they are fallers or players to hold.
The Boston Red Sox have been considered an elite offense for some time by fantasy baseball players and analysts. In the first half of the season, they were eighth in runs scored. While they got off to a very slow start in April, being 26th in runs scored, they turned things around quickly. In May, the Red Sox were third in runs scored (first in the AL), second in ISO (first in the AL), and first in OBP.
They now sit 10th in runs scored, 12th in OBP, and 12th in ISO, with a wRC+ of 101 on the whole season. In July alone, they are 26th in runs scored, 27th in OBP, and 19th in ISO.
Are The Red Sox still an elite offense? Are there any players we can either buy low on or sell high on? Let's take a look...
Still Elite?
First off, the Red Sox in the month of July had injuries to Trevor Story, J.D. Martinez, and Rafael Devers. Devers and Martinez are second and third on the team in OBP at .379 and .368, respectively. All three of Devers, Martinez, and Story have ISOs higher than .179 and are first (Story), second (Devers), and third (Martinez) on the team in ISO as well. These three players account for 46 home runs, 162 runs, and 141 RBI. That is a lot to lose for any team. That would be like the Blue Jays losing George Springer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Bo Bichette and asking if their offense was still elite or not.
J.D. Martinez returned on July 26 but the Red Sox are still fielding a lineup with Rob Refsnyder, Kevin Plawecki, Yolmer Sanchez, and Jaylin Davis in it. Does that look elite? Heck no. Will it stay that way? It shouldn't.
What To Expect Going Forward If The Team Stays Together
Xander Bogaerts is great at getting on base, but he has had a power outage this season. His .385 OBP is a career-best along with his .312 average being his best since 2015. We will probably see in the second half a regression of his OBP closer to his career average of .350, which is close to above average. His power is tough to figure out; his 6.4% barrel rate is the lowest he has had since 2017 when his barrel rate was 1.3%. The closest season to this 6.4% rate in terms of barrels was in 2016 when his barrel rate was 5.3%. In that season, he hit 21 home runs.
Expecting somewhere between 7-10 home runs the rest of the season is reasonable in my opinion, as he has seven home runs through 390 plate appearances this year. Even in a "down year," he has been a bona fide starting SS this season and should be a top-10 SS going forward, largely aided by his batting average and runs scored.
Rafael Devers has been great, assuming he can come back from his injury on time, it should not be a big deal. Devers' average and power combination at third base has been elite. He doesn't steal bases so the hamstring is less of a worry if he can play normally. His .602 SLG and .278 ISO would be career highs. He has a career of .522 SLG and .237 ISO. He also is a career .285 hitter and his .324 average would also be a career-high. Generally, one would expect his stats to regress more to his career averages. With his injury, players such as Austin Riley, Manny Machado, Nolan Arenado, etc., could outperform him. That said, he is still likely to be a top-5 third baseman the rest of the season.
J.D. Martinez might be someone to acquire heading into the stretch of the season. He has a .179 ISO, which would be the lowest of his career since 2020 when he played just 54 games due to the shortened season. Last year, he had a .232 ISO and he hasn't posted an ISO lower than .200 throughout a full season since 2013 when he played for the Houston Astros. He has a career .235 ISO, and from a power standpoint, could perform similar to Devers who has a similar career ISO. He has a high .302 average and could score over 90 runs this season. He has performed like an OF3 in 10 and 12-team leagues, and he could perform more like an OF2 during this stretch of the season.
Alex Verdugo is another name one could possibly acquire for cheap. He is hitting .265 with six home runs, 37 runs, 50 RBI, one steal, and an abysmal .108 ISO. This is someone who has an Andrew Benintendi profile. If you have an excess of power on your team but need a batting average boost, I could see Verdugo hitting better in the second half as he is a career .284 hitter. His strikeout rate is just 10.1% and his BABIP is just .280, compared to his .313 average BABIP. He could provide some help with batting average without suffering RBI and runs scored. He is a three-category contributor.
Trevor Story is a player I would consider dumping if you can find a taker. In the first half of the season, he was a strong contributor in all five categories except batting average. He has 15 home runs, 10 steals, 49 runs scored, and 58 RBI in 81 games played. Despite those positives, he has a 30.7% strikeout rate this season and a 92 wRC+. Story has a wrist injury and has not come back from it.
I have concerns as to how much power he will have when he does come back, as his .202 ISO this season is his worst in his career. Story might hit just five to eight home runs and steal just four or five bases for the rest of the season. There are at least 12 second-base eligible players I would rather have than Trevor Story on my fantasy team going forward.
Christian Vazquez is someone who should hold his value. This year, he is hitting .277 and is a career .261 hitter. For the catcher position, this is a great batting average and most of his value in fantasy comes from his batting average. In the past, he has stolen bases but this year he only has one steal. His walk rate, strikeout rate, batting average, and on-base percentages are all not far off of his career marks.
Jarren Duran has seven stolen bases in 32 games played, which is awesome. He also has just seven RBI and one home run, which is not awesome. In addition to his terrible effort on the Raimel Tapia inside-the-park home run. If he continues to get regular playing time (he is sitting Tuesday, July 26 against the Guardians), he will provide empty steals and is only viable in points leagues or in roto leagues where you are in excess of the other four stats and can afford to have someone with empty steals in the lineup. I would prefer to stay away unless desperate for steals.
Outside of those guys, there are not guys I have a ton of expectations for on this roster. Enrique Hernandez has elite splits against LHP (.357 wOBA, .250 ISO) but is weak against RHP. He should be a platoon player, as he was used in Los Angeles. Without going on a deep dive, I do not have faith that Bobby Dalbec, Rob Refsynder, Christian Arroyo, Franchy Cordero, Jackie Bradley, or anyone else on the roster can produce elite fantasy-relevant stats outside of the players listed.
What About Potential Trade Additions?
First base has been a void for the Red Sox. I believe that the Red Sox were hoping Triston Casas would join the team as the everyday first baseman. He injured his ankle and has just started rehabbing the last two weeks. There is a chance he joins the team. In Triple-A, he is batting .239 with a .351 OBP, six home runs, 25 runs, and 22 RBI in 171 plate appearances.
Another name that has been mentioned for the Red Sox is Josh Bell. Bell is batting .302 with a .388 OBP, 13 HR, 49 runs, and 51 RBI in 412 plate appearances. He is a legit, four-category contributor and would be a huge upgrade over the production they are currently having. If the Red Sox want to get back to having an elite offense, a switch-hitting hitter like Bell is a great way to upgrade.
What About Players Getting Traded Away?
Here comes the bad news if you are a Red Sox fan or hoping the Red Sox become an elite offense. It sounds like the Red Sox are going to be sellers and not buyers at the trade deadline. There are rumors about Xander Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez, and Christian Vazquez being dealt. Xander Bogaerts is expected to opt-out of his contract and become a free agent at the end of this season. Martinez is in the final year of his deal and will be turning 35 next month. Vazquez also has an expiring contract and turns 32 next month too.
In addition to trying to get something back for expiring contracts, the Red Sox do not have the strongest farm system. Outside of Triston Casas and Brayan Bello, most of their top prospects have a 2024-2025 ETA if all goes according to plan. Depending on the publication/evaluator, the Red Sox have a farm system ranked near the middle of the league, right in the middle third of the league.
Boston will also go from a $204 million payroll in 2022 to a $98.6 million payroll in 2023 and an $88 million payroll in 2024. They could move some veterans to help improve their farm system and in 2023 and 2024 be armed with a lot of freed-up cash to sign free agents in addition to the development of their prospects to start to compete again in 2024 and 2025.
It is difficult to envision the Red Sox going through a hard rebuild and it will be interesting to see what they do this trade deadline and what their roster-building strategy will be going forward the next couple of years.
Final Thoughts
The Red Sox are capable of being an elite offense if they keep their roster together and add some help such as Josh Bell to their lineup. With the Red Sox having a terrible month of July, even though they are just 3.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot, management must see that they are not at the level needed to compete with the Yankees or Astros come the postseason.
With potential key pieces getting moved such as Xander Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez, and Christian Vazquez, this will be a below-average offense, even with Rafael Devers and Trevor Story in the lineup. If those three pieces do move to other teams, the outlook I have for those individuals remains the same if they receive regular playing time. The players who stay on the Red Sox will see a downgrade in runs scored and RBI most likely as the team will be losing two of their top on-base percentage players and two of their best power hitters.
Keep an eye out for how the Red Sox perform over the next month as well as trade rumors about the team. We will be here to break down all the key moves and what impact they could make from fantasy and real-life perspectives!
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