Boom or Bust Quarterbacks for 2022 Fantasy Football Drafts

September 7, 2022

Andersen Pickard provides his fantasy football booms and busts for quarterbacks. These QBs should be targeted or avoided in fantasy football drafts for the 2022 NFL season.

Fantasy football draft season is here. Wise managers will peruse the quarterback crop, identifying players who might be steals at their current ADP and turn into potential league-winners. After all, drafts and leagues can be won by finding players poised for huge breakout seasons.

Entering 2022, the quarterback position remains flashy. Fantasy managers must find their perfect quarterback, whether it be an aging but reliable veteran, flashy and mobile youngster, or up-and-coming star with legitimate poise as both a runner and passer. At the same time, they must avoid players who hint at being underwhelming in 2022.

Without further ado, it's time to identify six quarterbacks – three booms and three busts – that every fantasy manager should be targeting or avoiding this year.

BOOM Fantasy Football Quarterbacks

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles — QB5

This is a high price tag for someone who threw for 16 touchdowns through 15 games last season, but Hurts screams "boom" once again heading into 2022. One of the most mobile quarterbacks in football, Hurts will now benefit from having A.J. Brown in his offense, adding a valuable weapon in the passing game.

Let's start on the ground. Hurts displayed immense value when using his legs, extending plays, scampering for extra yards, or even finding the end zone. The table below shows that if Hurts wasn't the No. 1 quarterback in a certain rushing category, he was No. 2.

Now that we have made it clear that Hurts might be the best running quarterback in football, let's move on.

Below are Hurts' passing productivity metrics from 2021. You'll notice that most of the metrics relating to the offensive scheme as a whole (passing yards, air yards, and passing touchdowns) aren't fantastic. After all, the team dialed up just 29.1 pass plays per game, which ranked fourth-worst in football. The odds were stacked against Hurts as soon as Philadelphia established a plan of attack on offense.

Yet, Hurts prevailed. The metrics relating to his decision-making are much better. This partially speaks to Hurts' football IQ, though it's likely that his mobility is a greater factor. Rather than stand still and make a dangerous pass, he could use his legs to pick up yards, thus avoiding making dangerous mistakes.

Let's explore one final table of metrics relating to efficiency. The stats below offer a variety of cases in which we can justify viewing Hurts as a "boom" quarterback. His fantasy points per dropback and per game were great, and he was solid throwing deep and in the red zone despite having a weak receiving corps. (Entering last season, PFF graded Philadelphia's receiving corps at No. 30, and that was before the team traded away Zach Ertz).

At the end of the day, Hurts thrived with plenty stacked against him last season. The Eagles were run-heavy all year long, Hurts had one of the worst pass-catching units in football, and the team ranked 21st in time of possession. Still, the signal-caller prevailed in his second season, finishing as the QB9. Imagine what he can do with a better offensive line, a true alpha in A.J. Brown, and a scheme that favors the passing game.

Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos — QB10

Wilson finds himself in a new offense that is ready to explode. Although he'll be throwing to a weaker wide receiver corps than the unit he had in Seattle, everything else is an improvement.

Starting with the offensive line, Wilson will now be protected by a group that is really strong at the tackle and guard positions. Lloyd Cushenberry III could also take another step forward at the center position, giving Denver an all-around promising unit. The Broncos' offensive line ranks 16th in the NFL heading into 2022, according to PFF. For comparison, PFF ranked Seattle's O-line 25th in 2021.

Wilson also gets the benefit of playing with a phenomenal backfield. Gone are the days of Chris Carson, Rashaad Penny, and others shuttling between the playing field and medical tent. Now, Denver's flashy new quarterback has the likes of rising phenom Javonte Williams and reliable veteran Melvin Gordon at his disposal.

Playing time is another big factor in Wilson's fantasy success. Last season, Seattle possessed the football for an average of 25:17 per game. That ranked dead last in football, and it wasn't close. The Seahawks' time of possession was more than two minutes worse than the 31st team.

For comparison, no other team had a gap of more than 38 seconds between them and the next team. Furthermore, Denver possessed the ball for 30:48, which ranked eighth in football and was an impressive mark from a team that was quarterbacked by turnover-prone quarterbacks Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Lock.

Of course, none of this would matter if Wilson didn't have the skills to succeed. Good thing he does.

The metrics below show Wilson's performance during various important game situations. He demonstrated a strong ability to air the football out and succeed while throwing with a clean pocket, under pressure, or in the red zone.

The final piece of the puzzle is Wilson's all-time fantasy production. Prior to 2021, he was a top-12 quarterback every single season, as well as a top-10 option for eight consecutive seasons. It's clear that 2021 was an anomaly, suggesting he should get back on track with quarterback guru Nathaniel Hackett as his head coach, a strong supporting cast around him, and phenomenal talent of his own.

Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins — QB16

Tagovailoa has an opportunity to take a major step forward this season, and it could bode well for fantasy managers who take a chance on him. With decent mobility, an arm that's supposedly more accurate than Patrick Mahomes, and a great supporting cast around him, there's reason to believe Tagovailoa is primed for a "boom" campaign.

Let's begin by diving into Tagovailoa's metrics from this past season. These are just a portion of his stats and don't tell the whole story of his season, but they do help to remove some extraneous factors and look solely at Tagovailoa as a player.

Evidently, Tagovailoa's accuracy, as Tyreek Hill claimed, is pretty impressive. He was good in all facets of the game, including throwing from inside the pocket, on the run, in the red zone, into tight windows, and more.

Tagovailoa's overall productivity, on the other hand, left a lot to be desired. The stats below dive into his production as a whole. These metrics can be influenced by conditions like poor receiver play, but generally, they show that Tagovailoa is far from a perfect player. He has room to improve, and that was apparent when watching him play as a second-year quarterback.

Perhaps the biggest factor towards Tagovailoa's expected improvement in 2022 is the addition of key pieces to the Dolphins' offense. Miami beefed up a solid offensive line, made a change from a defensive-minded coach to an offensive guru, added talented running backs, and most importantly, made a splash to acquire Hill from the Kansas City Chiefs.

Hill will now line up alongside Jaylen Waddle, giving the Dolphins two talented receivers that can make plays and give opposing defenses headaches.

Hill was the WR6 in fantasy football last season while Waddle was the WR13. When two players of that caliber link up in an offense, good things happen — and there's data to prove it. The table below showcases the 16 times that two wide receivers on the same team have both finished as the WR13 or better in fantasy football.

Then, there's a column that shows how their quarterback performed in terms of fantasy points and ranking. Most of the time, the stars thrived with just one quarterback, though 2013 does offer an anomaly because the Bears deployed two signal-callers.

The results are clear: having two top-13 fantasy receivers on one team can elevate a quarterback's production. Only twice did quarterbacks finish outside of the top-12 in these situations: a near-miss by Cousins in 2018 and the aforementioned Bears hiccup in 2013.

Otherwise, a top-12 finish (or better) is almost guaranteed. Quarterbacks with two top-13 receivers finished as the overall QB1 four times and the overall QB3 or better seven times. As long as Hill and Waddle produce similar results in 2022 as they did in 2021 (which seems far more likely than not), Tagovailoa is set up for success in fantasy football.

Tagovailoa's current ADP of 132 makes him the 16th quarterback off the board and an incredibly intriguing pick around the 12th or 13th round of fantasy drafts. You should target him at all costs in two-quarterback or Superflex formats, and he's even a thrilling upside option in traditional one-quarterback leagues. The Alabama product screams "boom" heading into his third pro season.

BUST Fantasy Football Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs — QB3

Let's preface this by making one thing clear: Mahomes is elite. Has been, still is, and will continue to be. However, he has shown significant regression over his last two seasons, finishing fourth in fantasy points and fifth in points per game among quarterbacks last season. His stock is only dropping as he heads into his first season without Tyreek Hill.

To begin, we would be foolish to look anywhere other than Mahomes' stats. After all, he's the player in question. It's clear that the offense remained dominant, as evidenced by Mahomes' red-zone attempts and the metrics pertaining to the style of play and game script.

The Chiefs threw the ball a lot and reached the red zone a lot, both of which bode well for Mahomes. He was also trusted to throw the ball at a high clip and continued to produce touchdowns. However, his yards and air yards per attempt took a bit of a dip.

Next, here are Mahomes' metrics in various high-leverage situations, including deep ball attempts, plays in which he was pressured, and plays in the red zone. Most of these metrics ranked among the bottom half of NFL starters. Efficiency is so important in fantasy football, and these numbers offer some pause.

The final and perhaps most important piece of the puzzle: Mahomes' weapons. Losing Hill is such a mammoth loss for Mahomes and the offense, especially since the Chiefs didn't replace him with a superstar.

Instead, they added JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Skyy Moore, all of whom are decent players but don't offer the same value as Hill. Plus, while Travis Kelce remains on the roster, he is aging and saw his streak of five consecutive TE1 finishes come to an end last season.

Below is a table showing the fantasy points per route run and per target during the 2021 season for Hill compared to the Chiefs' receivers this coming season. Hill's fantasy production in these categories is better than all the receivers he leaves behind in Kansas City, not to mention that it is leaps and bounds better than the free agent receivers that the Chiefs brought in to replace him.

Mahomes currently ranks third among quarterbacks, which is interesting because he has only finished top-three in fantasy once (his majestical 2019 campaign). He falls into the "bust" category at his current ranking and draft price, especially with the losses this Kansas City offense has endured since the end of the 2021 season.

Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers — QB12

Lance made six appearances as a rookie last season, but most of his action came over the course of three different games. He finished the year with a solid 602 passing yards, five touchdowns, and two interceptions, plus an additional 168 yards and a score on the ground.

After being drafted third overall and initially failing to win the starting job, Lance was finally given the keys to the offense this offseason. Although the promotion allowed him to spend more time with his fellow starters, it also put him under a much brighter spotlight. At the end of the day, he faltered.

Lance's preseason struggles are well-documented. He displayed concerning inaccuracy and poor decision-making too often this summer.

While preseason struggles are expected, especially from someone who has never been a full-time NFL starter before, he has not shown much to justify his ranking of QB12. Even his impressive mobility is overshadowed by his poor placement on passes.

Let's compare Lance's limited 2021 accuracy metrics to Garoppolo's. Both data sets have a control (same team), so the hope is that the numbers reflect each quarterback as adequately as possible. Similarly, by using Garoppolo as the comparison, we're looking at a mediocre player who is a solid low-end QB2 in fantasy football. He's not a star, nor a dud.

Fantasy managers are in love with Lance because he looks like the next breakout player in a pattern of mobile quarterbacks who have thrived. While stardom could still be in his future, the North Dakota State product hasn't shown enough through his limited sample size to justify the top-12 expectations that have been placed upon him heading into 2022. For now, he screams "bust" in redraft leagues.

Justin Fields, Chicago Bears — QB17

Another player looking to make noticeable strides in their second pro season Fields, for whom the Bears traded up in the 2021 draft. The Ohio State product's rookie season was hindered by head coach Matt Nagy's indecisiveness to name the rookie the starter. The now-fired head coach finally gave in, but Fields disappointed.

As a rookie, Fields completed 159 passes for 1,870 yards, seven touchdowns, and 10 interceptions through 12 games. He added 420 rushing yards for two scores on the ground. His 121.8 fantasy points equated to a QB31 finish.

Statistics-wise, Fields struggled drastically. He ranked in the bottom third of the league in almost every efficiency category measured by Player Profiler, and then some. Perhaps most concerning were his 13.74 expected fantasy points per game, a number that ranked 31st among quarterbacks. Even in a category that ignored games in which Fields did not play, he still fell short of his fellow competition.

Fields' accuracy metrics were also bad, which doesn't bode well for a player who totaled 3.9 deep passes per game and 10.1 air yards per attempt (second in NFL).

Fields falls into a similar category as Lance: there's star potential here, but he hasn't taken the steps needed to justify his current ranking and tier. Chicago's offseason coaching change could help, but at the same time, the Bears lost Allen Robinson and now might have the worst receiving corps in football. Without many weapons at his disposal, Fields' continued transition to the NFL will look shaky.

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