RADIO
RotoBaller writer and editor Pierre Camus makes his bold fantasy football predictions for the 2018 NFL season.
Next up to bat, stepping up the plate... wait, wrong sport. I've been all in on football for the past month or so between drafts, mocks, rankings, and stalking Josh Gordon's Twitter feed, but I am a baseball junkie too (and football and hockey and soccer and table tennis and rugby and anything that resembles a sport with a ball other than golf which isn't really a sport but I digress).
Just as with my fearless and highly questionable predictions for the baseball season (Lewis Brinson, you failed me), I'm going to bring the heat in the form of takes.
Last year, my biggest highlights included predicting Todd Gurley's resurgence and Dalvin Cook leading all rookie RBs in rushing, which totally would have happened if not for injury. Hey, you can't prove it wouldn't have happened. My biggest mistake was somehow retaining optimism for anyone in a Dolphins uniform, especially the sleeper formerly known as Devante Parker. No hometown bias in this edition, guaranteed! Now, let's see if I can throw our loyal readers a few curveballs.
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Pierre Camus' Bold Predictions
Devin Funchess is a borderline WR1 in standard leagues
Funchess is barely being drafted like a WR3, with an ADP in the late-eighth round as the 38th receiver off the board. Despite the fact he is still the clear top target on his team, many have him slated for an even lower fantasy finish since he doesn't fit the prototypical mold of an elite receiver. He truly is a receiver in a tight end's body. We know this because he actually played tight end for two years in Michigan before switching to the outside. He doesn't have elite speed, but at 6'4", 230 lbs, he doesn't need it. Funchess is exactly what Kelvin Benjamin should have been - a large human being who can high point the ball and grab all (some) of Cam Newton's overthrown passes to convert into receptions. The team moved on from Benjamin because they had faith in Funchess and showed it by making him the primary target throughout the second half of the year. Sure, Greg Olsen is back and D.J. Moore is now on board, but this should actually help Funchess draw less attention in the red zone and there will be plenty of passes to go around since there is still questionable depth at the receiver position.
Last year was considered a minor disappointment for him, but it shouldn't be. Funchess was in the top-20 in targets, top-25 in receiving yards and only six WR scored more touchdowns than him last year. Now that he's entering his fourth NFL season and first as Newton's primary target, those numbers should only increase. Even if he doesn't approach WR1 status, he's an absolute bargain at his current ADP.
Robert Woods leads the Rams in receiving and is a fantasy WR2 in PPR leagues
The first part of this is far from a stretch. Woods finished four catches behind Gurley for the team lead last year despite missing four games with an injury. He was having his most productive season as a pro, including a three-game stretch where he caught 20 passes for 322 yards and four touchdowns when a shoulder injury knocked him out of the lineup. Otherwise, he might have been on his way to a fantasy WR2 season in 2017.
The Rams are clearly invested in Woods, as his five-year, $34 million contract would prove. Brandin Cooks will surely see more action than Sammy Watkins but he has never been a target hog and won't start now in this balanced offense. Cooper Kupp exceeded expectations as a rookie, but we may have already seen his ceiling. Not coincidentally, his most productive games all came when Woods was out. I'll admit Woods is a high risk for re-injury, mainly because Sportsinjurypredictor says so, but that's not something you want to bake into your preseason rankings too much since injuries are never truly predictable. So I'm sticking with Woods as an every-week starter until he gets hurt. I mean unless!
The Ravens have two top-25 receivers and two top-25 running backs
I was initially tempted to throw Joe Flacco into this prediction, but the threat of Lamar Jackson stealing snaps is real enough that it could keep him from going full Alex Smith this year. Even in a down year that saw Flacco throw for just 196.3 yards per game, the lowest since his rookie campaign, he threw the ball 549 times, good for seventh-most among all QBs. The year before, Flacco was one shy of Drew Brees' league-leading 673 pass attempts. Clearly, the Ravens have become a pass-first offense. With a whole new receiving corps led by Michael Crabtree and John Brown, there will clearly be enough volume for these two to be prolific receivers. I won't start professing my affection for Brown as a draft sleeper here, as there isn't enough room here... check out the Fantasy Bomb podcast archives for that.
As far as running backs go, it might seem counter-intuitive that a team like the Ravens who keep slinging the ball downfield will support high-performing RBs, but it could be true. Alex Collins was the RB16 in standard scoring last year, with Javorius Allen finishing as RB27. In PPR leagues, this jumps up to RB23 for Allen and Collins slides down to RB20. Even if the team remains status quo in the backfield, this is easily achievable. No, I'm not worried about Kenneth Dixon and you shouldn't be either. Draft Buck Allen as your last RB - he's basically free these days anyway.
Chris Carson keeps the starting job all year and rewards his owners handsomely
A little vague perhaps, so let's say I project him for 1,056 rushing yards, 36 receptions and 279 receiving yards with nine total TD. Better? The fact is that Carson averaged 4.2 yards per carry in four games last year behind an offensive line that tripled Russell Wilson's life insurance premiums in one calendar year. Both Wilson and coach Pete Carroll have been raving about this year's version that is now overseen by longtime O-line coach Mike Solari. With a renewed dedication to the run after seeing their run/pass ratio skewed to 200 more passes than run plays last year, Carson could be far better than anticipated.
Oh yeah, the Penny thing. They did draft another running back in the first round, but Rashaad Penny will have to earn the job like any other rookie RB. He blew out the Combine, but hasn't been spectacular in the preseason; a broken finger set him back even further by forcing him to miss time. If Carson proves he can handle the job and Penny doesn't impress early on, Carson has a good chance to run away with the job (pun intended).
Baker Mayfield outscores Marcus Mariota this year
I'll keep this simple - I'm down on Mariota because I don't believe he'll ever be a high-volume passer. To me, he reads as a more athletic, but less accurate Ryan Tannehill. He's consistently completing 62% of his passes after three seasons and hasn't reached the 300-completion mark yet. That won't suddenly change. The problem is that he's on a team that actually has a good running game and a decent defense, so he won't rack up garbage time stats like Tannehill at times.
The reason I have confidence in Mayfield is the same reason I think the Browns still end the year with five wins or less, even though they have a ton of talent on the offensive side of the ball now: Hue Jackson is still their coach. Jackson will push the wrong buttons, demotivate the team and lead them out of contention by Week 5, prompting them to give Mayfield a shot earlier than needed. Tyrod Taylor is a quality quarterback, but he was never more than a stopgap in this situation. Mayfield has shown his trademark moxie already in the preseason and won't be scared of NFL defenses - he'll be a popular waiver wire add before midseason hits.
The Chicago defense is more valuable than Jacksonville
Really going out with a bang when it comes to talking about defensive units, huh? Everyone's got the Jags D ranked first as if they are a no-brainer to repeat as the best defense. Makes sense, except it doesn't. Last year it was a no-brainer that the Jags defense wasn't worth drafting and Denver or Seattle had the best defense. The year before it was Arizona... You get the drift here. Defenses almost never repeat top finishes and there are sure to be injuries or other adverse situations. Chicago's defense is young, hungry, and underrated. It goes without saying they are my top pick to be this year's Jags.
