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The Houston Texans fired head coach Bill O'Brien after an 0-4 start to the 2020 NFL season. Justin Carter examines the fantasy football impact on players like Deshaun Watson in redraft and dynasty.
On Monday, the thing Houston Texans fans had wanted for years finally came true, as the team fired head coach/general manager Bill O'Brien.
An exciting hire back in 2014 to replace Gary Kubiak after he'd helped steady a heavily sanctioned Penn State program, Texans fans eventually soured on O'Brien, whose uncreative playcalling and failure to win in the postseason became an issue. Things got worse when he took over the GM job, which culminated in some terrible personnel moves that we'll talk about in a minute.
So, does this move improve the prospects of the Houston Texans players from a fantasy perspective? Let's discuss.
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How Did We Get Here?
The Texans are 0-4 and don't have a first or second-round pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. That's why we're here.
Those picks were shipped away in various deals from GM O'Brien. The first-rounder was included in a trade with Miami for left tackle Laremy Tunsil. That would have been fine, but then this offseason they turned around and traded star wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins to Arizona in a deal that didn't bring back a first-round pick.
It did bring back a second in the 2020 draft, which O'Brien used on defensive lineman Ross Blacklock, whose highlight so far was punching an opposing player and getting ejected.
Meanwhile, Houston's own 2020 second was traded to the Rams in a deal for Brandin Cooks, who has not been a huge factor so far.
Their own 2021 second was part of that Tunsil trade.
This could all be made slightly better if Houston was winning. But O'Brien's gotten off to a horrendous start, looking overmatched as the team dropped those four games. A win in Week 4 over Minnesota could have saved his job, but losing to another winless team was the nail in the coffin for the O'Brien era. Romeo Crennel takes over as the interim head coach, and this offseason Houston will have the chance to find a head coach who can help quarterback Deshaun Watson take the next step.
How Does This Change Houston's Fantasy Outlook?
So, here's where I might deviate from a lot of people who are out there shouting things about how Deshaun Watson is free and things of that nature.
I don't actually think this improves the short-term outlook of the Houston Texans that much.
Crennel is taking over as the head coach. He's a defense guy, which means he won't have anything to do with the team's offensive playcalling, which will all fall onto the shoulders of offensive coordinator Tim Kelly.
The problem? Kelly was the play-caller for the first three games of the season before O'Brien took the role back over on Sunday against the Vikings.
Kelly is an O'Brien guy through and through. He started his coaching career as a defensive guy before he joined O'Brien's Penn State staff as a graduate assistant in 2012. In 2014, he went with O'Brien to the NFL, working as an offensive quality control coach, then an offensive line assistant, then a tight ends coach, and finally as the offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach for the past two seasons.
Kelly's links to O'Brien should be concerning to anyone expecting a quick turnaround for this Texans offense. Sure, there's always the possibility that he opens this playbook and we see Watson ripping the ball down the field, but it's hard to expect wholesale changes from a playcaller who has 1) been the play-caller in 75 percent of the games this season and 2) has never been an offensive coach outside of this specific system.
That's not to say the Texans offense can't improve. Watson has been a borderline fantasy QB1 this season when he was drafted to be a high-end QB1. Watson is likely to improve, as he's a multi-dimension quarterback who is currently ninth in air yards per attempt. When he's facing defenses that aren't as good as teams like Baltimore and Pittsburgh, those intended air yards will be more likely to be converted into completed air yards.
But it's hard to know if that improvement will be from Kelly or just from Watson's talent, and no offense to Kelly, but I'd be hesitant to attribute anything to him.
One thing that I do believe is that things can't get worse under Kelly. O'Brien's play-calling was a serious issue in the waning minutes of his final Texans game. The team was first and goal at the four needing a touchdown and a two-point conversion, and they called consecutive runs up the middle then tried to run an option to the left with Watson and David Johnson. That all led to what was almost a miraculous fourth-down touchdown pass from Watson to Will Fuller V, but it was called back after review.
But Houston shouldn't have been in the position to have that final play overturned. You have one of the six or seven best quarterbacks on the planet. How do you call three runs play in a row in that situation? It was the worst potential moves that O'Brien could have done short of just kneeling the ball and intentionally losing
Kelly can't call plays worse than that one.
The best-case scenario for the O'Brien-less Texans in the short term is that Kelly mostly calls the same plays the team was calling before, but does so in a slightly smarter way. If that's how things shake out, the Texans players can reach the fantasy level we thought they'd be at when the season began.
That would mean Watson's a QB1. Will Fuller is a WR2. David Johnson is probably a WR2. But the rest of the offense -- Brandin Cooks, Randall Cobb, Kenny Stills, Jordan Akins, Duke Johnson Jr. -- will still suffer from "too many mouths to feed" syndrome. They'll still be inconsistent plays who can go off one week and then post three fantasy points the next.
Looking Down the Road
Again, Houston's long term outlook is better now. They'll bring in an offensive-minded coach like Eric Bieniemy who can actually do some interesting things with the football. They'll figure out the logjam at wide receiver, likely by letting at least Stills go this offseason and potentially moving on from the oft-injured Fuller as well. This move is a big plus arrow for Watson in dynasty.
But forgive me if I'm not optimistic that this suddenly becomes a top-level offense in 2020. Kelly will either coach just like O'Brien or will coach like a better version of O'Brien. But all the things that made this offense struggle -- no true No. 1 receiver, a lot of offensive line issues, and a very good quarterback who might need to stop holding the ball so long -- are still present.
O'Brien's firing is the right move. But it won't necessarily pay immediate dividends for the Texans offense or for fantasy managers.
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