X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Kings Of Candy: Biggest Sweet Spot Risers for Fantasy Baseball Year-Over-Year (Swt-Spt%)

Francisco Lindor - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB DFS Picks, Betting Picks

Jarod's 2024 fantasy baseball sweet spot (Swt-Spt%) and barrel risers - analyzing metrics for hitters to see whose numbers increased the most year-over-year.

We recently looked at hitters who increased their BB% the most year-over-year, but now we want to look at hitters whose sweet spot percentage increased the most. Why this metric? Well, by looking at who has increased their sweet spot percentage, you might find hitters who may be hitting the ball at a better angle, leading to more hits that go for extra bases. More technically speaking, per Baseball Savant, sweet spot percentage is the percentage of batted balls hit between 8.0 and 32.0 degrees of launch angle.

That's not to be confused with Barrel%, which is the perfect combination of launch angle and exit velocity, although we'll take a look at that metric for each hitter too since it is a good predictor of power production.

Note that for each player discussed below, their name is bolded, then their absolute increase in sweet spot percentage is listed to the right, followed by the relative change being listed in parenthesis, and finally their ADP is listed. Below is the table of risers we're considering discussing, but we're just going to touch on the more fantasy-relevant ones and only those that had more than 300 PA last season.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Biggest Year-Over-Year Sweet Spot Percentage Risers

Jack Suwinski, +7.9% (30.0%), ADP 240

Powerful lefty Jack Suwinski is the first fantasy-relevant player on our list. Surprisingly, even though he increased his sweet spot percentage almost eight percentage points over 2022's total, he still lands in just the 47th percentile of major league hitters. Nevertheless, Suwinski saw his ISO increase from .209 in 2022 to .230 in 2023. We can see his ground ball (GB) percentage was reduced dramatically and both line drives (LD) and fly balls (FB) increased, although his HR/FB% dropped.

That doesn't necessarily mean he wasn't hitting for power in 2023 because a 17.3% HR/FB% is still great (9.5% is average). In fact, Suwinski's Barrel% (optimal exit velocity and launch angle) in 2023 was 15.7% (94th percentile). While it would be nice if he could cut down on the Ks (32.2%), the former 15th-round pick doesn't chase pitches out of the zone. His O-Swing% (a.k.a. chase rate) was 22.0% last season while league average was 31.9%. This helps him get on base via the free pass, as he had a 14% BB% (94th percentile).

Barrel% is the most predictive power metric, and Suwinski's is elite, so you should count on more HR in 2024. Hitting out of the fifth spot in the lineup should afford him ample RBI opportunities as well, even in the deficient Pittsburgh offense. Tyler O'Neill (Barrel% of 12.3% in '23) has a similar ADP to Suwinski and is projected for similar numbers, but if it's 25ish HRs and double-digit SBs you are looking for, Suwinski might be the safer bet.

Ian Happ, +7.5% (25.7%), ADP 154

Switch hitter Ian Happ is next up. His increase in sweet spot percentage landed him in the 74th percentile of all MLB hitters last season. Happ too saw a bump in ISO, although not as dramatic as Suwinski's, from .169 to .183. His LD% didn't change much, but his GB% declined and his FB% went up as we saw his average launch angle increase 2.1 degrees to 13.0 degrees while average EV increased slightly. As a result, we saw four more HRs in '23 (21) than we saw in '22 (17) in basically the same amount of ABs.

The former first-round pick's Barrel% (9.0% in '23, career 10.1%) is good enough that we should expect to see similar power numbers from him again in 2024. What's also encouraging is that he's lowered his K% from 29.2% in 2021 all the way down to 22.1% in 2023, while pushing his BB% up to 14.3% (95th percentile). Happ has better-than-league-average O-Swing% (26.8%) and his Contact% has risen three consecutive years, from 66.5% in 2020 to 77.1% last season.

Hitting third for the Cubs should be better than fifth for the Pirates, which partly explains why Happ is ranked almost 100 picks higher than Suwinski, but you can expect similar wOBA, HR, and SB numbers from the two.

Bryson Stott, +7.0% (23.8%), ADP 106

Second baseman Bryson Stott is our third riser. His increase in sweet spot percentage landed him within the 71st percentile last season. He didn't see a significant rise in ISO, just .124 to .138, but the lefty's average rose substantially, from .234 to .280. Surprisingly, despite the increase in sweet spot percentage, his average EV remained constant (88.1) and his launch angle decreased from 13.1 to 10.2. Looking further, his GB% stayed exactly the same, but his FB% went down and LD% went up, which tells me he was hitting more line drive singles.

Stott's Whiff% went from 17.2% in 2022 to 15.1%, good for 95th percentile. This means when he swings, he's not missing much (86.6% Contact%, 6.0% SwStr%), and this also helps explain his low K% of 15.6% (87th percentile). The fact that these numbers aren't far off from his 2022 numbers tells me he should be able to maintain a decent average and counting stats hitting sixth in the Philly lineup in 2024.

The former first-round pick also stole 31 bases last season, so he's been going higher in drafts than anyone we've discussed to this point. With a Barrel% of 4.4% and 4.7% in his first two seasons in the majors, we shouldn't expect any more HRs from him than he posted last season (15), but he'll be a multi-category contributor and won't really hurt you in any particular area.

Josh Naylor, +6.6% (22.8%), ADP 131

Yet another lefty, Josh Naylor saw an increase of 6.6 percentage points in his sweet spot percentage last season. It still only landed him in the 61st percentile, but he had a fantastic season nonetheless. He ended with a .308 BA and his .293 xBA was 95th percentile. Naylor also had a .354 wOBA and 128 wRC+, and while he chases a ton of pitches out of the zone (42.6% O-Swing%), he was able to maintain a low K% (13.7%, 94th percentile).

In Naylor's case, his ISO actually went down along with his Barrel% despite the rise in sweet spot percentage. However, the former first-round pick was able to collect nearly 100 RBI last season in just 121 games. Health has been his bugaboo though, as he's yet to play more than 122 games in a season (2022) due to injury. But if the Guardians bring up top prospect Kyle Manzardo to play first base, perhaps Naylor gets more run at DH, which would hopefully keep him healthier.

ATC projections call for 21 HRs, which is probably near his ceiling based on his barrel rate, and he's in store for another 85+ RBI, but his lack of runs scored is unsatisfying for someone who gets on base fairly regularly. He's not fleet of foot but should add 8-10 SB. If you're looking for power though, there are other options getting drafted near him that could provide more (i.e. Spencer Torkelson).

Francisco Lindor, +6.6% (22.6%), ADP 25

Last but not least on our list is Francisco Lindor. The switch hitter had a good season despite a slow start. Keeping with the theme of the article, despite Lindor increasing his sweet spot percentage by 6.6%, that put him in just the 65th percentile of MLB hitters last season. But what is good about Lindor is that he is pretty good at everything, as is illustrated in the below graphic from Baseball Savant. He's better than average in every category, although 79th percentile for average EV is as strong as it gets for him.

Lindor saw his ISO increase 37 points to .216 and he smacked the most HRs (31) that he's had since 2019 (32). Despite the batting average sinking 16 points to .254, he hit eight more doubles and five more HRs than he did in 2022 while playing in one less game (160).

The former first-round pick also swiped 31 bags last season despite having a 72nd percentile sprint speed. Hopefully, Lindor can get off to a better start this year (.223 AVG, .310 wOBA, and 98 wRC+ through May 31 last season). In the end, if he puts up similar numbers to last season, then he'll likely pay off his 25th overall ADP.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Griffin Conine

To Have Shoulder Surgery On Tuesday
Luke Keaschall

Twins Prospect Luke Keaschall Suffers Broken Forearm
Logan Gilbert

Leaves Friday's Start With Forearm Tightness

Vikings Select Tai Felton To Finish Day 2

Seahawks Select Quarterback Jalen Milroe With The 92nd Pick Overall

Browns Select Dillon Gabriel 94th Overall

Packers Pick Savion Williams At No. 87 overall

Steelers Snag Kaleb Johnson In Round 3

Broncos Select Wide Receiver Pat Bryant With The 74th Overall Pick

Texans Select Jaylin Noel With 79th Pick

Lions Select Wide Receiver Isaac TeSlaa With The 70th Overall Pick
Jack Leiter

To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
Garrett Mitchell

Makes Early Exit
Luke Keaschall

Removed Early On Friday
Blake Snell

Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Brendan Donovan

Back In Action On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Coby Mayo

Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF