RADIO
Rob looks at the Denver Broncos and looks at what kind of offseason assets they have, both financially and draft capital wise. Their three positional needs are identified.
The duo of Russell Wilson and Sean Payton wasn't enough to bring Denver out of mediocrity and because of that, the organization is looking at making a massive move this offseason -- cutting Russell Wilson. His play doesn't justify the contract, that's true, but Wilson wasn't the problem. He played pretty well, all things considered. This offense is devoid of playmakers despite some rather big names and big contracts tied to some of their pass-catchers. The reality is, quarterback isn't the only team's problem, far from it.
Previous Divisional Editions breaking down each team's 2023 season, their offseason assets, and their top-three positional needs going into the 2024 NFL Season can be found here:
Payton wants to form this team in his way. That's fine, but that's going to take time. Cutting Wilson will have significant cap ramifications. The front office was hoping for a quick reload, but this has turned into a major rebuild. Things are likely to get worse before they can better. What steps can they take this offseason to set them on the right path? If you want to take advantage of all of our great premium tools, please use promo code, "BOOM" to receive a 10% discount.
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Season Review and Offseason Assets
Denver traded for head coach Sean Payton this past offseason in hopes of bringing out the old Russell Wilson. In some ways, it worked. Wilson played much better in 2023 than he did in 2022. Unfortunately, Denver started the season 1-5 and dug a hole too big to climb out of. However, they did their best. They finished the season 7-4 in their final 11 games. Wilson finished the season with a 66.4% completion percentage, 3,070 yards, 26 touchdowns, and eight interceptions. If you're looking to point fingers, Wilson isn't as big of a culprit as he's made out to be. While the team is now fully prepared to move forward without Wilson, Denver has plenty of work to do before they're able to realistically compete for a playoff spot.
They finished 19th in points scored and 26th in yards gained. While Wilson's touchdown numbers look nice – Denver finished eighth in passing touchdowns – they finished just 24th in passing yards. Their rushing attack was also below average all year. The offensive line struggled, as did Javonte Williams in his return from a significant 2022 knee injury. The defense turned it around midseason but started off giving up 36.2 points per game in the first five games of the season. This team has holes across their entire roster and it's likely going to take more than one offseason to fill a majority of them.
Denver is over the salary cap by a little more than $10 million. Once they finally cut Wilson, the ramifications of such a move are going to be massive. They'll likely designate him as a post-June 1 cut. This will result in a $35.4 million dead cap hit in 2024 and a $53.6 million dead cap hit in 2025. To create cap space, the team could opt to trade star safety Justin Simmons. That move would save $14.5 million. Courtland Sutton is another interesting trade candidate. With a $17.4 million cap hit, the team would likely have to eat some of his salary, but given his 2023 season, he could generate trade interest, albeit minor.
Tim Patrick will certainly be cut, which will save the team $9.5 million Cutting D.J. Jones could save them $10 million. Cutting Jarrett Stidham, Samaje Perine, and Chris Manhertz could save another $10.2 million. Trading Jerry Jeudy could also save the team $13 million. If they decided to trade Garrett Boles, something given his age and current team situation they should consider, they would save $16 million. Given the consequences they'll incur from cutting Wilson this offseason, the team will have to make plenty of other difficult moves to get cap-compliant.
The Broncos own the No. 12 (first-rounder), No. 76 (third-rounder), No. 144 (fifth-rounder), No. 146 (fifth-rounder), and No. 237 (seventh-rounder) overall picks in this year's NFL Draft. Considering their current cap situation, massive hole at quarterback (post-Wilson cut), and only having five picks in this year's draft, Denver is in a world of pain.
Biggest Needs
1. Quarterback
Wilson is widely expected to be cut before the start of free agency. Stidham could also be gone since cutting him saves $5 million in cap space and after cutting Wilson, they'll need as much space as they can generate. Given the state of their franchise, it makes little sense to keep a 28-year-old backup quarterback with a $7 million cap hit. That would essentially leave the quarterback position barren. Wilson wasn't bad. Looking at most stats, Wilson was an above-average quarterback last season. However, none of that matters.
Denver seems intent on moving on, which will require them to find a new starter this offseason. Given their cap situation, signing Kirk Cousins isn't an option. Due to how few picks they have, trading for Justin Fields isn't an option either, especially since he'll soon be due a new contract. That leaves the only real option being the draft, but at N0. 12 overall, they'll likely have to trade up even if they want to land J.J. McCarthy. Atlanta and Minnesota are both ahead of them and both could have interest in drafting McCarthy. Other teams such as Las Vegas, Seattle, or Pittsburgh could trade up to select him as well.
2. Pass Rusher
Denver had two players with eight or more sacks, but their pass rush was virtually non-existent behind Jonathan Cooper and Nik Bonitto. Denver finished 31st in hurries with just 28. Their hurry percentage was just 4.4%, which was 30th in the NFL. They finished 22nd in sacks with 42 and 29th in pressures with just 117. Their 18.2% pressure rate rank just 29th. Given the lack of production from their team's pass rush, Denver will need to find additional help this offseason. Cooper and Bonitto combined for 50% of the team's hurries, 39% of the team's sacks, and 38% of the team's pressures. If anything were to happen to either player, Denver's defense would be in a lot of trouble.
3. Wide Receiver
This may not look like a need today because technically Sutton, Patrick, and Jeudy are on the roster. However, Sutton has a $17.4 million cap hit, Patrick has a $15.5 million cap hit, and Jeudy has a $13 million cap hit. That is truly disgusting, to have so much money tied up in so much mediocrity. If these three players were available on the open market, signing all three would probably cost around $25 million in total.
Out of 49 receivers with at least 80 targets, Sutton and Jeudy finished 32nd and 33rd in yards per route run. Among that same group, Sutton was 28th in catch percentage and Jeudy was 35th. They were 39th and 40th in receiving yards per game. Overpaying for a good player isn't ideal, but it's at least tolerable. The problem here is that Sutton and Jeudy weren't good. Given their lack of production (outside of Sutton's touchdowns) and the 2024 cap hits, both players could be moved before the draft. Even if they're on the team in 2024, it's a virtual guarantee 2024 will be both player's last year with the team.
4. Other Positions of Need: Safety (if Simmons is traded), Offensive Line
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