X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Notable Starting Pitcher Improvements in K%, BB% and GB% for Fantasy Baseball

Yusei Kikuchi fantasy baseball rankings draft sleepers MLB injury news waiver wire pitchers

Dan's fantasy baseball starting pitcher draft targets, based on improvements in K%, BB% and GB%. These SPs will have strong seasons with improved control and better ground ball ratios.

We constantly try to find the right statistics to examine when evaluating pitchers' performances. And while there are many rabbit holes you can head down with spin rates, Stuff +, and any number of ERA indicators, it all usually comes back to strikeouts, walks, and the quality of contact that hitters are making off a pitcher.

Even though ground balls end up as base hits more often than fly balls, I'm a big fan of ground ball pitchers and I wanted to include ground ball rate in the research I conducted for this article because I will tell you what ground balls never rarely end up being - extra-base hits. And they never end up becoming home runs. Groundball pitchers usually can survive higher contact rates if they can keep the ball in the park and avoid the big inning.

So while strikeouts are sexy and super important for fantasy baseball, I wanted to see if low walk rates or high ground ball rates were as equally important and as strongly correlated with lower ERAs. What I found out was interesting and I hope you read on as I go on a journey in search of some answers about which of these statistics might be the most predictive of ERA.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

How Do K%, BB%, and GB% Affect ERA?

I set out to measure the increase or decrease in strikeout, walk, and ground ball rates for all starting pitchers who logged 80+ innings in both 2022 and 203, A total of 99 pitchers qualified for the sample under those parameters. After finding the change in each pitcher's rates, I then calculated the correlational coefficient between each stat category with the change in each pitcher's ERA from 2022 to 2023.

There are a lot of factors that could be in play as to why a pitcher's ERA changes from season to season and we all know that ERA is perhaps not the best indicator of a pitcher's overall effectiveness. But it is one of the five pitching stat categories that we use in standard 5x5 leagues, so why not use it here if the results that we are ultimately seeking are lower ERAs and WHIPs?

Here are my findings.

An increase in strikeout rate had the strongest relationship with a decrease in ERA. The two are negatively correlated, meaning as one goes up, the other goes down. This makes sense, right? And even though it was the strongest relationship, it checks in with just a -0.44 coefficient. Suppose you need a refresher on correlational coefficients. In that case, they can range from 1.0 to -1.0, and the closer the number gets to either end of the range, the stronger the positive or negative relationship.

A decrease in walk rate had the next strongest relationship with a decrease in ERA. Pitchers who lowered their walk rate were more likely than not to also have lowered their ERA. This is a positive correlation since as one number goes up (or down) so does the other. The coefficient for this correlation was 0.33, so not quite as strong as the relationship between K% and ERA.

An increase in ground ball rate had only a mild relationship with a decrease in ERA. This is a negative correlation of only 0.15 and the weakest of the bunch. It turns out there are a lot of ground ball pitchers who are mediocre or even bad at run prevention, while there aren't all that many high strikeout pitchers who also carry high ERAs (Lance Lynn is the exception, not the rule).

 

Biggest BB% Changes

Pitcher BB% change ERA change
Yusei Kikuchi -5.90% -1.33
Justin Steele -4.80% -0.12
Adrian Houser -3.20% -0.61
Michael Lorenzen -3.20% -0.06
Nathan Eovaldi 3.80% -0.24
Michael Kopech 3.90% 1.89
Alex Wood 4.40% -0.77
Lance Lynn 4.60% 1.74
Tyler Anderson 5.40% 2.86
Alek Manoah 7.70% 3.63

Control is so important for MLB pitchers and unless you have some Spencer Strider-type stuff, you're not likely to get away with a double-digit walk rate.

As far as major improvements in control, let's talk about Kikuchi and Steele as Lorenzen and Houser are pretty boring pitchers for fantasy.

Did you realize Kikuchi was this good last year? I honestly forgot until digging deeper into his 2023 season.

His second go-round in Toronto was far better than his first as he dropped his ERA by 1.3 runs and lowered his WHIP from 1.50 to 1.27. There's nothing really in his underlying stats to suggest that it was fluky either as he had a high BABIP (.325) and a pretty normal strand rate of 77%. His xFIP checked in at 3.73, too. A 19% K/BB% was pretty damn good, too. Perhaps Kikuchi is finally ready to reach his full potential and at an ADP of around 275, I think he's a nice value that you could look to take 15-20 picks earlier.

I didn't measure changes in win totals from 2022 to 2023 but if I did, Justin Steele would be at the top of the list as he went from 4-7 in 2022 to an outstanding 16-5 last year, logging 20 quality starts in 30 outings. What's pretty fascinating about Steele is that his numbers in almost every other stat category besides walks stayed nearly the same. He struck out exactly 24.6% of hitters in both 2022 and 2023. His BABIP and strand rates were nearly identical, as were his GB% and CSW%.

But cutting his walk rate in half from 10% to 5% did wonders for Steele as he was also able to pitch deeper into games as a result, upping his average outing from 5 innings per start in 2022 to nearly 6 innings per start last season.

Eovaldi and Wood are our outliers here as far as guys who walked more hitters but lowered their ERAs. Wood had one of his worst years in 2022 with a 5.10 ERA that was a full run and a half above his career mark so he had plenty of room to improve on that mark.

We all know how Manoah's season ended - in ugly fashion with one of the biggest drop-offs in recent memory from what was a very good year in 2022. And I wrote a bit more about Tyler Anderson's fall from grace here (or maybe just his return to mediocrity after a brief two-year uptick).

 

Biggest GB% Changes

Pitcher GB% change ERA change
Kyle Hendricks 10.10% -1.1
Blake Snell 7.80% -1.1
Nick Martinez 6.40% -0.05
Tarik Skubal 5.90% -0.7
Logan Webb 5.40% 0.35
Josiah Gray 4.80% -1.11
Logan Gilbert 4.70% 0.53
Drew Smyly -5.30% 1.53
Noah Syndergaard -5.60% 2.56
Martin Perez -5.90% 1.56
Jordan Lyles -6.70% 1.86
Lance Lynn -6.70% 1.74
Tyler Anderson -9.20% 2.86
Framber Valdez -12.30% 0.63

Hendricks got back to doing what he does best - getting ground balls and inducing soft contact. As a pitcher with only a 16% strikeout rate, his run prevention is tied to his ground ball rate a lot more closely than other pitchers who can generate more whiffs. He finished with a 3.74 ERA over 137 innings and looked much more like the 2018-2020 version of himself.

The NL Cy Young winner Snell had the second-best ground ball rate of his career and the lowest hard contact rate (31%) of his career likely because he cut back on four-seam fastballs and increased the number of breaking balls and changeups he threw. The walk rate was just massive, however, at 13.3% and he was lucky it didn't burn him more often as his 86.7% strand rate was fluky high. Wherever he signs, I'll be interested to see if he can repeat his success from 2023 or if the stars aligned for him last year.

Tarik Skubal is transforming into an ace and has raised his GB% every season since his rookie year. He used to have a home run problem, but he fixed it in a hurry and looks to be primed for a huge season. There's not much to say here, draft him with confidence.

Two pitchers raised their groundball rates and still had higher ERAs in this sample - Logan Gilbert and Logan Webb. I have concluded that if your name is Logan, then you are the exception, not the rule. All kidding aside, there are going to be some outliers in the data and both pitchers still had very solid seasons.

On the other end of the spectrum, we saw the ERAs in the second half of this list explode as their groundball rates dwindled. Valdez saw only a modest bump in ERA despite the largest drop in GB% but consider that his decrease was from 64% (a league-high in 2022) to to 52% in 2023. Anything above 50% and you get to keep your "groundball pitcher" card.

 

Biggest K% Changes

Remember, the results pointed towards an increase in K% as the most highly correlated statistic with a drop in ERA and all of these examples except Mitch Keller provide some anecdotal evidence to back it up.

Pitcher K% change ERA change
Nick Pivetta 8.60% -0.52
Tarik Skubal 8.40% -0.76
Tyler Wells 6.90% -0.61
Pablo Lopez 5.60% -0.1
Mitch Keller 5.40% 0.3
Trevor Williams -5.80% 2.34
Justin Verlander -6.30% 1.47
Carlos Carrasco -7.80% 2.83
Luis Severino -8.80% 3.47
Cristian Javier -10.10% 2.02

No one cranked up the Ks quite like Nick Pivetta, who started the year in the bullpen for Boston but finished the season as their best starter. Pivetta finished with a 31.2% K% on the season over 142 innings with a strong 14.5% SwStr% and 30.8% CSW%. He's a popular breakout candidate this season.

Tyler Wells could be a nice late-round value as he should get a chance to start the season in the rotation for Baltimore. As far as Pablo Lopez and Mitch Keller are concerned, it remains to be seen if they can maintain their big gains in strikeouts since both set career-high marks in 2023.

I wrote earlier this Spring about both Verlander and Javier, who had some of the biggest drops in K-BB%. I'm being cautious with both in drafts.

 

Checking All The Boxes?

To wrap things up and tie a nice little bow on this project, why don't we take a look at those pitchers who were able to make improvements in all three areas? Here are the six pitchers who raised their strikeout and groundball rates while lowering their walk rates last season.

Pitcher K% increase BB% decrease GB% increase ERA +/-
Kyle Bradish 3.20% -2.40% 3.60% -2.07
Tarik Skubal 8.40% -2.20% 5.90% -0.72
Nick Martinez 1.80% -0.50% 6.40% -0.04
Logan Webb 2.10% -2.50% 5.40% 0.35
Logan Gilbert 1.90% -1.70% 4.70% 0.53
Joe Ryan 4.30% -2.70% 3.90% 0.96

What a breakout year Kyle Bradish had! Now you know why so many people in the industry were bummed out when learning of his UCL sprain in February. He was (or maybe still is) primed for a big year in Baltimore and might be worthy of a stash with how much progress he made last season.

More support for Tarik Skubal here, as if you needed to be sold on him. He's looked fantastic in ST already and could be a top-10 pitcher this year. That's not even being overly optimistic, he has it all working and we just have to see him do it for a full season.

Nick Martinez is not someone who was on my radar at all after pitching mainly in relief last season, but it looks like he will get a chance to start in Cincinnati this season. A 55% ground ball rate could certainly help out in a homer-friendly Great American ballpark and his 13.4% SwStr% from last season suggests he could even improve upon his 23% K% from last year.

Logan Webb was a workhorse last season, logging 216 innings but finishing with just 11 wins. His control was immaculate (3.6% BB%) but his increase in strikeouts was relatively minor and still well below his career-best of 26% in 2021. He's being drafted for his floor rather than his ceiling around an ADP of 45.

Logan Gilbert's numbers were nearly identical (or better) across the board yet his ERA jumped a half run. There's not one stat that stands out that could account for it, other than maybe an increase in HR/FB% (+5%). He's ready for another big year for Seattle, though there might be more buzz around some of his fellow Mariners' hurlers such as Bryce Miller, George Kirby, and Bryan Woo.

And finally, we have Joe Ryan, who did everything better and saw his ERA climb a full run to 4.51. His xFIP was 3.75 and xERA was 4.19, so we know he was unlucky somewhere. Like Gilbert, he had some bad luck on home runs with a 16.7% HR/FB% and he saw a 50-point jump in his BABIP from .253 to .305. He likely overperformed in ERA in 2022 by a half run and underperformed by a half run in 2023. He's probably just a 4.00 ERA pitcher.

Well, I hope we learned something today. Or at least we tried to make sense of some numbers. I will stand by my previous assumptions that high strikeout rates, low walk rates, and high groundball rates are all usually good data points to track with pitchers, even if we don't always see the immediate results in their ERAs and WHIPS. Good luck this season, RotoBallers!



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jameson Williams

Lions Didn't Entertain Trade Offers For Jameson Williams
Dalton Rushing

Homers In Four-Hit Game
Qadir Ismail

Raiders Sign Qadir Ismail
New York Giants

Giants Plan To Exercise Kayvon Thibodeaux's Fifth-Year Option
Russell Wilson

Will Be Giants Starting Quarterback
Max Muncy

With A Pair Of Doubles Back At Triple-A
Michael Lorenzen

Tosses Quality Start
Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs Close Out The First Round With Josh Simmons
Philadelphia Eagles

Eagles Trade Up One Spot In First Round To Select Jihaad Campbell
A.J. Puk

Likely To Miss Multiple Months
Marquis Grissom Jr.

Notches Fifth Save At Double-A
Buffalo Bills

Bills Address Secondary And Take Maxwell Hairston With 30th Overall Pick
Félix Bautista

Felix Bautista Records Third Save
NFL

Eagles, Chiefs Swap First-Round Picks
Washington Commanders

Josh Conerly Jr. Goes At No. 29 Overall To Commanders

Giants Trade Up For Jaxson Dart At No. 25
Detroit Lions

Tyleik Williams Taken By Lions At No. 28 Overall
Shane Smith

Tosses Five Shutout Frames
Roman Anthony

With Home Run No. 5 On Thursday
Baltimore Ravens

Ravens Go With Malaki Starks At No. 27 Overall In NFL Draft
Minnesota Vikings

Minnesota Takes Donovan Jackson No. 24 Overall
NFL

Rams Trade The 26th Pick In The 2025 NFL Draft To The Falcons
Andrés Muñoz

Andres Munoz Secures Ninth Save
Atlanta Falcons

Falcons Trade Back Into First Round To Draft James Pearce Jr. At No. 26 Overall

Matthew Golden Selected No. 23 Overall By Green Bay
NFL

Texans Trade The 25th Pick In The 2025 NFL Draft To The Giants
Jakob Marsee

Up To 18 Steals At Triple-A

Omarion Hampton Taken No. 22 Overall By Chargers
Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh Selects Derrick Harmon At No. 21 Overall
Denver Broncos

Broncos Build Secondary By Selecting Jahdae Barron At No. 20

Buccaneers Add Emeka Egbuka At No. 19
Jeff McNeil

Activated From Injured List
Brett Baty

Optioned To Minors
Zack Gelof

To Begin Rehab Assignment Next Week
Ryan Walker

Remains Giants Closer
Kumar Rocker

Heads To Injured List
Brent Rooker

Resting For First Time This Season
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Isaiah Stewart

Remains Out For Game 3
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Bryan Woo

Picks Up Third Win, Strikes Out Eight On Thursday
Cade Cavalli

Moving Rehab Assignment To Double-A
Paul DeJong

Having Surgery On His Nose
Royce Lewis

Starting His Rehab Assignment On Friday
Tyler O'Neill

Out On Thursday With Sore Neck
Linus Ullmark

Attempts To Overcome Playoff Struggles Thursday
Anthony Cirelli

A Game-Time Call Thursday
Logan Thompson

Comes Up Big In Game 2
Connor McMichael

Strikes Twice In Wednesday's Win
Anze Kopitar

Tallies Four Points In Game 2 Victory
Adrian Kempe

Notches Two Goals, Two Assists In Wednesday's Win
Tyler Seguin

Gives Stars Series Lead With Overtime Winner
Gabriel Landeskog

Delivers Six Hits In First Game Since 2022
Tyler Herro

Scores Game-High 33 Points In Wednesday's Loss
Donovan Mitchell

Fires In 30 Points In Game 2 Win
Paolo Banchero

Notches 32 Points In Game 2 Loss
Jaylen Brown

Posts 36-Point Double-Double Wednesday
Jalen Green

Erupts For 38 Points In Game 2 Victory
Brandin Podziemski

Limited To 14 Minutes Wednesday
Jimmy Butler III

Set For MRI Thursday
Brandin Podziemski

Upgraded To Available
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Michael Porter Jr.

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Davion Mitchell

Moves Into Starting Lineup Wednesday
Brandin Podziemski

Picks Up Questionable Tag
Al Horford

Starts Game 2
Michael Porter Jr.

Practices On Wednesday
Jayson Tatum

Out On Wednesday
Isaiah Stewart

May Miss Another Game Thursday
NYI

Cal Clutterbuck Announces Retirement
Pavel Zacha

Recovering From Small Procedure
Nikolaj Ehlers

To Miss At Least Two More Games
Miro Heiskanen

Still Out On Wednesday
John Klingberg

Enters Oilers Lineup For Game 2
Evander Kane

To Make Season Debut Wednesday Night
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Posts Team-High 26 Points In Tuesday's Loss
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Notches 27 Points Despite Poor Shooting
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Pascal Siakam

Scores Team-High 24 Points In Game 2 Win
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF