Biggest Busts in 2022: Three Starting Fantasy Baseball Pitchers That Were Busts in 2022

February 10, 2023

Mark Kieffer looks at the biggest fantasy baseball starting pitcher busts in 2022. Could any of them rebound and what can we expect in 2023?

Getting Starting Pitchers right is so important to fantasy baseball. With ratio stats being two of five stats in pitching in standard roto leagues, getting a couple of high-draft pick pitchers wrong can destroy your fantasy team quickly.

2022 provided some unexpected busts that surely cost a few of my fantasy teams a chance to compete. Below I examine three of the biggest starting pitcher busts and offer my take on how they may perform in 2023 and whether you should consider drafting them on your fantasy team.

1. Lucas Giolito, SP, Chicago White Sox

I was high on Lucas Giolito last year and like many other fantasy players, he burned us. He had an ADP in the mid-30s, being drafted as an SP1, and put up a 4.90 ERA, 177 strikeouts, and a 1.44 WHIP in 161.2 innings pitched. He provided strikeouts in exchange for destroying all of our ratios. The especially tough part is when taking a starting pitcher early in our fantasy drafts, we rely on solid ratios so we can take shots on high strikeout guys with less-than-ideal ratios later on to help balance things out. It is extremely difficult to overcome a 1.44 WHIP with 161.2 innings pitched.

Looking ahead to 2023, he is a pitcher I am interested in at his ADP. He is going at 149.69 in NFBC Online Championships in the past month, which is the 40th starting pitcher off the board. In a recent Online Championship I drafted last week, I grabbed him as my SP4 at pick 167.

Even with the bad ERA, Giolito had a 3.66 xFIP, his best in a full season since 2019 (2020 was better but that was a spring). In that 2019 season, he had a 3.41 ERA, 228 strikeouts, and a 1.06 WHIP. I am not saying he repeats that season but his 2022 should have been better than it was last year.

He is 28 years old, has been an SP1 before, and has that SP1 upside. I am not sure that Tony Gonsolin, Chris Bassitt, Jordan Montgomery, nor Jeffrey Springs (SPs being drafted around the same ADP) have that same kind of upside. It's easy for me to take a shot at someone who has done it before when they are still young and healthy.

For better or worse, I have drafted Giolito at or below his ADP in most of my drafts and he is someone I have been trying to draft on all of my fantasy teams.

2. Jose Berrios, SP, Toronto Blue Jays

Jose Berrios was a bust that threw everyone off as well. He went as a fourth-round SP, often going as someone's SP2 or even SP1 if someone was waiting on starting pitching in NFBC drafts. In 2021, he had a 3.52 ERA, a 3.59 xFIP, a 1.06 WHIP, and 204 strikeouts in 192 innings pitched. While his ERA and WHIP had fluctuated in his career, he had been a pretty reliable source of strikeouts with 202 in 2018, 195 in 2019, and 204 in 2021.

Then 2022 happened. Berrios had a 5.23 ERA, a 1.42 WHIP, and 149 strikeouts in 172 innings pitched. Our reliable strikeout pitcher dropped to a 19.8% strikeout rate while his hard-hit against rate went up 5 percent to 43.4%.

Considering Berrios is in the second year of his seven-year, $131 million contract, he isn't going anywhere.

ATC projects Berrios to have a 4.22 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and 156 strikeouts in 172 innings pitched.

Looking at Statcast, his velocity was not significantly down from 2021 but his Four Seamer and Sinker were getting crushed. His in-the-zone rate has been the same as well.  The four-seamer had a .618 SLG and a .442 wOBA. His sinker had a .452 SLG and .374 wOBA.  When 53.7 percent of your pitches are getting crushed, it's difficult.

The only thing I can think of to explain this regression is having a predictable pitch mix. For whatever reason, it would seem that batters were keying on Berrios' fastball and crushing it.

Berrios went in Round 21 of my recent NFBC Online Championship as an SP6/SP7 or so. In a league with waivers, he is worth taking a shot on this late in drafts. If he doesn't work out, he is an easy cut. If he can get back to a place of striking out over one batter per inning, he is a great bargain. Some upside could be capped as it looks like the Blue Jays are set to have a six-man rotation -- this would mean not many two-start weeks, but 150 strikeouts with improved ratios would be solid in the last third of a draft.

I have not taken a shot on Berrios, but depending on my draft needs, as long as he is outside of my top five SPs, I'd take a chance, especially if I was in need of strikeouts.

3. Trevor Rogers, SP, Miami Marlins

Trevor Rogers came almost out of nowhere in 2021 to have a breakout season. In 2020, he had a 6.11 ERA in 12 starts, although he also had 39 strikeouts in 28 innings pitched (remember, this was the Sprint Season). Then in 2021, he had a 2.64 ERA, 157 strikeouts, and a 1.15 WHIP in 133 innings pitched (25 starts made).

That result, especially when incorporating his 3.54 xFIP that season, made him a viable SP2 candidate heading into 2022 as everyone was nothing but enthusiastic about him at age 24.

Then 2022 happened. He turned into a pumpkin and put up a 5.47 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP, and struck out 106 batters in 107 innings pitched.

He is now being drafted in the 240s in the NFBC. In my recent Online Championship, he went at the end of Round 23. ATC has him projected for a 4.03 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and 130 strikeouts in 126 innings pitched.

Rogers is someone I also would consider drafting at his current ADP. When you look at pitchers going in a similar range such as Tyler Mahle, Carlos Carrasco, Kenta Maeda, and Eric Lauer, Rogers has a much higher ceiling than any of those pitchers in 2023. All of the other pitchers may have a higher floor and maybe should be considered in draft-and-hold leagues, but in a league with waivers, why not take a shot again?

I think there is an increased chance than Giolito and Berrios that he isn't going to rebound in 2023, as he has as many innings of being bad as he has of being good, but late in drafts, I like hunting for upside.

Most picks in Round 23/24 aren't going to work out anyways and we can always find a good pitcher on waivers because someone always breaks that unexpectedly every single year.

Because I actually stacked against Rogers often in DFS in 2022, Rogers is someone who I have been fading. For example, one team drafted Jack Flaherty and Lucas Giolito, and I wanted to grab a veteran with a floor like Eric Lauer as you can only take so many chances throughout a draft. It is not a big deal to replace one or two SPs that don't pan out. It's more difficult to replace three or four.

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