RADIO
Pierre Camus examines the trend of increasing injuries in MLB, early in the 2021 season and how it impact fantasy baseball strategy.
Coming off the heels of Injurypocalypse™ weekend, baseball fans and fantasy managers are commiserating about the proliferation of injuries in Major League Baseball. Reactions run the gamut from "What did we do to deserve this?" to "It's just part of the game" to "Fire the whole training staff!"
It's not just the sheer number of players getting injured that has drawn scrutiny, it's the names at the forefront. Just as this column was being written, news broke that Anthony Rendon and George Springer are heading back to the injured list. Jacob deGrom may escape the IL designation but just hearing his name associated with anything injury-related, even soreness, brings a sense of dread to those who drafted him in the first round.
Intuitively, it feels as if there are more injuries than ever. A COVID-shortened 2020 and lack of minor-league season are the obvious culprits. But is it really true or is this simply a media narrative we are too eager to blindly accept?
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The Hard Truth
Injuries are, in fact, up in the early portion of 2021. According to Spotrac, 333 Major League players have missed a total of 6,127 days of action so far. That's a pace that will set a new high mark and shows a steady increase over the past few years.
| Year | Injured Players | Days Missed |
| 2021 | 333 | 6,127 |
| 2019 | 667 | 48,565 |
| 2018 | 677 | 34,126 |
| 2017 | 627 | 31,300 |
| 2016 | 523 | 31,050 |
| 2015 | 455 | 28,111 |
*2020 not included in data sample
According to research provided to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, IL placements are up 15 percent in April 2021 compared to April 2019, including 22% for pitchers. The year 2020 has a big asterisk next to it on the historical calendar, so it ceases to exist.
Soft tissue injuries such as hamstring and oblique injuries are the main culprit. Those two areas comprise the third and fourth-most frequent areas of injury, accounting for 5.8% of all injured players currently on IL. Good ol' TJS still leads the pack.
RotoBaller's resident injury guru Reuven Guy recently broke down average recovery time based on injury type from 2019 (the last full season) in his weekly Injury "Guy"de.
| HITTERS | Injury Length (days) |
| Hamstring | 29 |
| Hand/Finger | 45 |
| Neck/Back | 50 |
| Oblique | 35 |
| Knee | 84 |
| Shoulder | 62 |
| Concussion | 30 |
| Groin/Hip | 57 |
| Wrist | 35 |
| Calf | 49 |
| Ankle | 29 |
| Quad | 37 |
| Foot/Toe | 68 |
| Elbow | 45 |
| Biceps/Arm | 51 |
| PITCHERS | Injury Length (days) |
| Shoulder | 51 |
| Elbow | 92 |
| Arm | 71 |
| Back/Neck | 37 |
| Knee | 53 |
| Oblique | 35 |
| Hamstring | 28 |
| Finger | 25 |
| Biceps | 75 |
| Hip | 56 |
| Groin | 24 |
| Wrist | 98 |
| Pectoral | 46 |
| Foot/Toe | 41 |
| Calf | 28 |
That's a big chunk of time for many of those injuries, far longer than 10 days. These averages can be skewed by outliers but very often we underestimate the length of time it takes for a player to fully recover, rehab, and work back into form. Player hesitation can affect performance even after activation off the IL. Something seemingly innocuous, at least from the non-athlete's perspective, is the common oblique injury. Rest and rehab should be sufficient, right? There is more at play though.
Most players come back very timid and hesitant as they have this injury in the back of their mind. Unlike a shoulder injury, an oblique strain comes with no warning. It can happen at anytime. Also, it is very hard to predict. After 8-weeks of rehab, the last thing the player desires is a set-back. - Coach Dana Cavalea
We also know that the #1 predictor of future injury is past injury. When a player like Nathan Eovaldi reports elbow discomfort, it won't be taken lightly given his medical history. What could be a 3-4 week shutdown period for some pitchers might result in a 60-day IL stint for a veteran Tommy John survivor.
It should be noted that the move from 15-day DL to 10-day IL has made it more palatable for clubs to make a move for seemingly minor events. The advent of COVID and motivation to protect young players from sustaining serious injuries has encouraged clubs to be more cautious than before. So it could be that injuries aren't occurring more frequently, they are just being reported more frequently. Basically, the complete opposite of COVID cases in Florida.
Quality Over Quantity
We could debate the reasons for increasing IL listings all day but the real issue isn't so much the number of players getting injured as the caliber. We're talking about players like Eloy Jimenez, Christian Yelich, Cody Bellinger, Adalberto Mondesi, Luis Robert, Anthony Rendon, George Springer, and Starling Marte; eight of the top-50 drafted players have missed extended time, some of whom haven't played at all this season. Not to mention brief IL stints by Tim Anderson and Fernando Tatis Jr.
Then came the straw that broke this camel's back when 23-year-old outfield sensation Luis Robert was running out a routine grounder to first base.
He will not participate in baseball activities for 12-16 weeks, regardless of the determination.
— Chicago White Sox (@whitesox) May 3, 2021
It's not as if I have a ton of Robert on my fantasy teams but where I do have him, it came at the cost of a third-round pick. ATC projected him to produce 28 HR, 83 RBI, 88 R, and 25 SB. Projection systems are generally conservative in nature and not predictive of breakouts, so the potential for a 30/30 season or more was well within reach. Those dreams are shattered now just one month into the season.
Travis d'Arnaud was the sixth catcher drafted on average in NFBC leagues and was 84% rostered in Yahoo before the thumb injury that landed him on the 60-day IL. He was off to a terrible start, however, hitting .220 with two homers and 11 RBI in 23 games. He is easily replaceable in single-catcher formats. A guy like Robert who was primed to be among the league leaders in steals and homers? Not so simple to replace.
Some outside the White Sox organization have questioned whether their training regiments and pre-game warmup routines are sufficient. Tony La Russa is the easy scapegoat but he wasn't around the past couple of seasons (decades really) to witness the slew of injuries to other Chicago players.
Blame COVID, blame trainers, blame the Statcast generation, blame China if you want. In the end, we must live with the reality that injuries aren't going away and we have to adapt in order to keep up with them.
The Solution
Stop playing season-long fantasy leagues and stick to DFS.
That's not what we want to hear! We understand that there is a big difference between the two and season-long leagues give a sense of continual "ownership" ("rostership" these days) and personal investment in a team all year. There is an inherent value to the players you drafted and/or picked up, which makes watching baseball that much more interesting. Yes, football fans, it is interesting!
That walk-off bat flip from Kyle Schwarber ?
(via @Nationals)pic.twitter.com/6jWIPEP1Gx
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) May 1, 2021
As far as dealing with injuries, that's easy enough. Track injuries as they happen by bookmarking RotoBaller's daily MLB Injury Roundup. Then, find your replacements on our industry-leading waiver wire player list and rankings.
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