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Casey Wilson's best MLB player prop bets for today (5/13/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props. Will Smith, Elly De La Cruz, Byron Buxton, and more.
We have a loaded slate of MLB action today, with plenty to choose from when searching for the long ball. Our focus today will be on bats in favorable matchups and optimal hitting conditions, whether that be due to the park or weather conditions. The weather is not as hitter-friendly as it has been over the last few days, but let's see if we can find some winners tonight.
I will provide my five favorite home run bets on today’s slate. My favorite way to bet home runs is to round robin them, which I will do tonight. There are plenty of bets tonight with value, so to make a profit, we only need two of our four hitters to go deep.
Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Tuesday, May 13, 2025. Odds for each pick are from FanDuel or DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks to find the best price, which gives you more value on your bets. It's also important to risk only a small portion of your bankroll on home run props, as this is a volatile market.
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MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (5/13/2025)
Here are the hitters I'll cover for Tuesday, May 13:
- Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins
- Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles
- Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds
- Seiya Suzuki, Chicago Cubs
- Will Smith, Los Angeles Dodgers
Byron Buxton OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+390 DraftKings Sportsbook)
We start our home run card today with Byron Buxton facing southpaw Cade Povich. There is some weather in Minnesota tonight, but as I write this, I am no weatherman. If, by chance, this game is affected by weather, I will add a play to the bottom of the article.
Povich has struggled big time with the long ball this season. He has a 2.49 HR/9 and a 41.0% FB this season. In particular, right-handed hitters have crushed him. Povich has a .400 wOBA and a .557 SLG against the split. He has allowed seven home runs to righties this season.
The Twins have several right-handed hitters who profiled well for me. Ultimately, it came down to a choice between Buxton and Correa. Buxton has a .443 wOBA, .346 ISO, and a 44.4% Hard Hit against left-hand pitchers this season. Over his last 20 PA against southpaws, he has a .606 wOBA, .474 ISO, and a 57.1% Hard Hit.
Povich has a big arsenal of five pitches he will use throughout a start. He throws his four-seamer and curveball the most to righties. His four-seamer has a .721 xSLG against it this season, and his curveball has a .563 xSLG. Buxton profiles well against the mix and arm angle of Povich, which was the big separator between him and Correa.
- Four Seamer: 55 Pitches, .403 wOBA, .286 ISO, 1 HR, 32 LA
- Arm Angle: 35 Pitches, .355 wOBA, .143 ISO, 0 HR, 29 LA
The matchup for Buxton is too hard to ignore, and he has treated us well this season in this article.
Gunnar Henderson OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+500 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Henderson is the counterpart I mentioned earlier, who will be our second bet of the night. Henderson will square off against Simeon Woods Richardson and the Minnesota Twins.
Woods Richardson has been awful in 2025. He has a 4.82 xFIP, 1.88 HR/9, and a 53.5% FB over his last thirty days, including a 6.10 xFIP and a 1.93 HR/9 over his last two starts. He is getting beat in the zone with a 90.2% Z-Contact over that span while not missing bats with a 9.4% SwStr.
Henderson has been elite against right-hand pitching throughout his entire career, and 2025 is no different. Henderson has a .417 wOBA, .284 ISO, and a 50.9% Hard Hit against right-hand pitching this season. Over his last 36 PA against right-hand pitching, Gunnar has a .482 wOBA, .455 ISO, and a 29.2% Hard Hit.
Woods Richardson features a four-seamer that he throws 46% of the time. This pitch has a .570 xSLG against and has already had 42 BBE against it. Henderson crushes this pitch to a .404 wOBA and a .175 ISO. He also has a .582 wOBA and a .643 ISO against pitchers with he same arm angle as Woods Richardson.
I hope this game plays because both of these bets are slam dunks on tonight’s slate.
Elly De La Cruz OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+450 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Oh, how I love it when the Reds return home to the Great American Ball Park. This is the number one park in the big leagues for home runs, and today the Reds get a great matchup. I will be adding TJ Friedl or Luis Robert Jr. to my card if there is weather in the game above.
Jonathan Cannon will toe the rubber for the White Sox tonight. He has a 4.87 xFIP, 1.23 HR/9, and a 43.0% FB this season. Cannon has allowed a 92.9% Z-Contact and an 8.2% SwStr over his last two starts. He is not inducing swings and misses, and he is allowing fly balls.
Cannon has been hit equally as hard by both sides of the plate, so I don't prefer a split to the other, but these Reds bats profile very well for the lefties. Before we discuss Elly De Le Cruz, I want to note that Friedl profiles extremely well and was almost my pick here over Elly.
HELLO, ELLY ⚡️ pic.twitter.com/fo5ByiA2B6
— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) May 10, 2025
Elly has been a star, as always, in 2025. He has a .329 wOBA, .155 ISO, and a 30.1% Hard Hit this season against right-hand pitching. The key for Elly here is how he performs against Cannon's cutter. Cannon throws his cutter to lefties more than any other pitch. It has a .553 xSLG against it. Here is how Elly performs against Cannon.
- Cutter: 71 Pitches, .598 wOBA, .467 ISO, 2 HRs, 17 LA
- Arm Angle: 92 Pitches, .516 wOBA, .474 ISO, 2 HRs, 16 LA
I love this park for homers, and the White Sox coming to town means we are going hunting all series long.
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Suzuki homered on Monday and was featured in this article, so we are going right back to him. The Marlins' pitching staff is rough, and their bullpen is one of the worst in the big leagues. If Suzuki doesn't get to Valente Bellozo, he will get to the bullpen.
Seiya Suzuki's 10th home run of the year makes it a 5-run @Cubs 5th! pic.twitter.com/MnrG4CZv0z
— MLB (@MLB) May 13, 2025
Bellozo has not allowed many home runs this season, but he does have a 5.03 xFIP and a 62.0% FB this season. He has gotten hit hard by both sides of the plate in 2025. Suzuki has been on a tear this season. He has a .341 wOBA and a .257 ISO against right-hand pitching. Over his last 40 PA, he has a .313 wOBA and a .308 ISO.
Bellozo features a cutter and a four-seamer, both of which are hit very hard. His cutter has a .504 xSLG against it, and his four-seamer has a .457 xSLG. Suzuki profiled extremely well against the mix and angle of Bellozo.
- Cutter: 29 Pitches, .879 wOBA, .900 ISO, 3 HRs, 25 LA
- Four Seamer: 67 Pitches, .670 wOBA, .600 ISO, 1 HR, 18 LA
- Arm Angle: 23 Pitches, .661 wOBA, .800 ISO, 1 HR, 37 LA
Those numbers are ridiculous. I am all in on Suzuki.
Will Smith OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+400 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Our last and final bet of the day is the final game on tonight’s slate. The Dodgers will host the Athletics in Dodger Stadium, and Jeffrey Springs is scheduled to get the ball for the A's. The soft-tossing southpaw will have his hands full with this Dodgers lineup, in particular the right-hand hitters.
Springs has gotten crushed by righties this season. He has allowed a 335 wOBA, .449 SLG, and six home runs in the split in 2025. He has a 5.13 xFIP, 1.37 HR/9, and a 49.2% FB this season. The wind is blowing out to dead center, and Dodger Stadium is built for the long ball.
Will Smith, as always, is having a good season against left-hand pitching. So far in 2025, Smith has a .537 wOBA, .400 ISO, and a 46.9% FB. He has three home runs on the season.
As I mentioned above, righties have crushed him, but Springs has a particular fastball that is worth noting. He throws in the low 90s and throws his four-seamer 44% of the time. This pitch has a .542 xSLG against it. Betts crushes this and the angle of Springs.
- Four Seamer: 26 Pitches, .506 wOBA, .167 ISO, 0 HR, 27 LA
- Arm Angle: 50 Pitches, .453 wOBA, .200 ISO, 0 HR, 21 LA
Look for Smith to bring us home strong on Tuesday night.
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