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The Baltimore Orioles may trade several players in the 2022 MLB offseason. Ben Rosener breaks down the fantasy baseball impact of these rumors and landing spots for key SP, RP and OF.
Just how much trading the Baltimore Orioles do before the regular season begins, and to an extent before the trade deadline, remains to be seen.
Of course, that’s entirely speculative, but the argument can certainly be made that the Orioles should hang on to some of their younger players given where they are in their rebuilding timeline. Top prospects Adley Rutschman, Grayson Rodriguez, D.L. Hall, Gunnar Henderson, and Kyle Bradish are all close to the Majors. What’s more, there’s enough young talent in place with Cedric Mullins, Ryan Mountcastle, and Austin Hays that the team could, in theory, start thinking about adding players next winter in a bid to be more competitive, similar to what the Detroit Tigers have done with the signings of Eduardo Rodriguez and Javier Baez.
By the same token, however, trading some players now might make more sense in the long run. That’s not to say that Baltimore will or should trade someone like Mullins, but there are several veterans on the roster who either might not fit the rebuilding timeline or might be best utilized as trade chips now to maximize their value. If the Orioles do move some of those players, John Means fits the bill as one example, they could have a notable impact not just in real-life pennant races, but also for fantasy managers in search of a championship. These are the best fits for Baltimore’s top trade chips.
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John Means: Los Angeles Angels and Texas Rangers
The hurler has no doubt been effective in his two full seasons with the Orioles, logging a 3.60 ERA in 155 innings in 2019 and a 3.62 ERA in 146.2 innings in 2021. His FIP has always been higher than the ERA, checking in at 4.03 and 4.09, respectively, in those two seasons, but the starter certainly found some success, particularly from a fantasy perspective.
Still, getting out of the American League East probably wouldn’t hurt for John Means’ fantasy prospects.
In fact, it might provide a considerable boost where his fantasy ceiling is concerned.
Means’ ERA against non-division foes in 2019 and 2021 was 3.31 and 3.04, respectively. Opponents not from the American League East hit just .199 against the southpaw in 2021. Divisional foes batted .265 against Means last season.
John Means against non-division opponents in 2019: 87 IP, 3.31 ERA, 4.25 FIP, .226 average, .280 OBP, .287 wOBA
John Means against non-division opponents in 2021: 94.2 IP, 3.04 ERA, 4.60 FIP, .199 average, .247 OBP, .274 wOBA
John Means against division opponents in 2019: 68 IP, 3.97 ERA, 4.63 FIP, .244 average, .291 OBP, .306 wOBA
John Means against division opponents in 2021: 52 IP, 4.67 ERA, 4.65 FIP, .265 average, .290 OBP, .325 wOBA
The FIP numbers are, once again, higher than the ERA outputs, but you can see the increase in effectiveness when Means is playing teams that aren’t called the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Tampa Bay Rays, or Toronto Blue Jays.
In fact, those four teams all finished in the top-10 in the league in both home runs and wRC+. Elsewhere, where runs scored were concerned, the Yankees weren’t quite in the top-10.
But the Rays, Blue Jays, and Red Sox were in the top-five.
It’s easy to point to any team not in the American League’s easternmost division and say they’re a fit for Means, but Los Angeles and Texas stand out as obvious fits.
To start, both teams' ballparks would help Means continue to limit home runs. The starter has surrendered 65 home runs since the start of the 2019 campaign. His expected home runs by the park during that span at Angels Stadium and Globe Life Park? 55 and 50, respectively.
Both teams also have rotation needs and should provide more winning opportunities than the Orioles next season, the Angels obviously more so than the Rangers.
The 28-year-old only won six games last season, pitching with a lineup that scored the fifth-fewest runs in the league with 659 runs scored. That being said, he rattled off 12 wins during the 2019 campaign on an O’s squad that finished a relatively reasonable 22nd in runs scored with 729.
Both the Angels and Rangers should be considerably better from a run-scoring standpoint, with Los Angeles getting Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon back for full seasons and with Texas signing Corey Seager and Marcus Semien. Both could give Means a shot at reaching double-digit wins again.
If he can do that in 2022 while finishing reasonably close to his past non-American League East splits, he’ll be someone you’ll want on your fantasy team.
Cole Sulser: San Diego Padres
The Padres finished tied with the Chicago White Sox for the seventh-most saves in baseball last season with 43. That development was a significant boon for fantasy managers who drafted or acquired Mark Melancon as the veteran paced the Padres with 39 saves.
The only two problems are that no other San Diego reliever had more than one save in 2021 and that Melancon is currently on the Arizona Diamondbacks’ 40-man roster.
San Diego certainly isn’t short on useful bullpen options with Austin Adams, Pierce Johnson, Craig Stammen, and Drew Pomeranz still on the team, but they don’t have a clear-cut replacement at closer.
And while they could go with one of those four relievers as their ninth-inning option, Sulser would certainly be an upgrade, especially if he can pitch as he did in the second half of the 2021 season.
The 31-year-old finished with both an ERA (2.05) and a FIP (2.91) under 3.00 in 30.2 innings while registering 29 strikeouts, eight walks, and eight saves.
Essentially any contending team without a set closer is a fit for Sulser and his elite changeup (-11 run value, 34.1% whiff rate, 25% hard-hit rate), but San Diego stands out given how successful Melancon was last year and the potential for a significant number of save chances on a team that should be in the playoff hunt.
Trey Mancini: Texas Rangers
The Rangers are the rare American League team that could actually use an upgrade at designated hitter.
Texas finished with the second-fewest home runs from the designated hitter position among American League teams with 17, while Seattle wasn’t too far ahead of them with 20.
The Rangers, even after adding Seager and Semien, could also use some lineup depth.
Outside of those two, Adolis Garcia, and Nathaniel Lowe, no other current Rangers player hit more than 13 home runs.
Texas did add Mitch Garver via trade, but the catcher might split time behind the plate with one or both of Jonah Heim and Jose Trevino.
Enter Mancini, who connected on 21 in 616 plate appearances for Baltimore last season.
A .255 hitter with a .326 on-base percentage in those 616 plate appearances, the slugger (and fantasy managers) would benefit from a move to Texas just as much as the Rangers would.
Mancini finished second in an anemic Baltimore lineup with 71 RBI but could push for closer to 90 hitting behind Seager, Semien, and Garcia in the top half of Chris Woodward’s lineup.
And it’s not just the RBI numbers that could go up if Mancini was dealt to Texas. The veteran’s expected home run number at Globe Life Park for last season was 24.
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