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Rick Lucks - RotoBaller

625 articles

Hello fellow Rotoballers! I'm a guy that was reading fantasy baseball magazines before I was old enough to legally play. Now that I am, lets win some leagues together!

Articles

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball Part 5: Lineups, Runs and RBI

To this point, this column has focused exclusively on trying to predict and validate HRs and batting average. There is a reason for this--modern sabermetrics tend to reject the idea of a "clutch RBI guy" and therefore do not bother inventing predictive metrics for it. Runs and RBI are team dependent stats, and are unhelpful […]

9 years ago

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball Part 4: Plate Discipline for Hitters

No matter how high a particular player's BABIP may be, his average will be mediocre at best if he strikes out too much. This is why fantasy owners have known for years that players like Adam Dunn, Mark Reynolds, and Chris Davis are potential drains on a fantasy team's batting average. Furthermore, players that whiff […]

9 years ago

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball Part 3: Batted Ball Distribution

In the first post of this series, I referenced that Chris Davis's BABIP is not explained by that post alone, and that we would consider him again in the future. He was not considered in Part 2. He will be considered here. Davis managed an above average overall BABIP of .319 in 2015, despite the […]

9 years ago

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball Part 2: HR/FB for Hitters

Using BABIP to predict a player's batting average is great. Average is a category in many league formats, and every hit is an opportunity to steal a base or score a run. But most owners find the long ball sexier. Every HR comes with a guaranteed run scored and at least one RBI--and maybe more. […]

9 years ago

Champ or Chump: Lindor, David Wright and Scherzer

By now, most 2015 fantasy leagues have already been decided. In an all season roto league, someone probably has a big enough lead in enough categories that the last week doesn't matter. H2H formats are winding down their playoffs, if they haven't already finished. You've set your last lineup in any weekly format, and any […]

10 years ago

Champ or Chump: Conforto, Corey Seager, and Sano

Last week, we examined three veterans that have managed to dramatically exceed their preseason expectations, a class of player that is disproportionately likely to bust the next year. This week, we look at another class of player likely to bust: The highly touted prospect that puts up strong MLB numbers in a limited sample size. […]

10 years ago

Champ or Chump: What to Make of Arrieta, Donaldson, and Greinke

While everyone follows the pennant races this time of year, many also become fascinated by who will win the end of season awards. Who will be MVP? Is so and so good enough for the Cy? This year is no exception, with particular attention paid to NL Cy Young and AL MVP. Josh Donaldson made […]

10 years ago

Champ or Chump: What to Make of Eovaldi, Thor, and Strasburg

Few things complicate a fantasy baseball owner's plans like September innings limits. You can understand why a team would want to protect its most valuable arm, but just because the real team is dead in the water doesn't mean a fantasy roster doesn't still need it. It becomes even more confusing if the team is […]

10 years ago

Champ or Chump: What to Make of Molina, Bogaerts, and Arenado

Astute readers may have noticed that this column has increasingly made references to 2016 in predicting what the future may hold for featured players. While the statistical trends referred to hold value over time, there is simply not enough season left to assert that they definitely - or even probably - will impact a player […]

10 years ago

Champ or Chump: What to Make of Heston, Fiers, and Iwakuma

The no hitter. Few events in sports can make a stadium root against the home team, but a no-no can. There is a virtual guarantee of a great defensive play to preserve the effort, adding to the excitement of the event. Like a championship, these gems live on well after their season has faded into […]

10 years ago

Champ or Chump: What to Make of Desmond, Shields, and Lester

Nothing can tank a fantasy season quite like an early round champ performing like a chump. I was personally burned by Jon Lester's horrific 2012 season, and have not been able to trust him since. James Shields in 2015 reminds me a lot of 2012, and I'm sure Ian Desmond would as well if I […]

10 years ago

Champ or Chump: What to Make of Longoria, Carrasco, and A-Rod

In any 2015 baseball broadcast or highlight package, you are bound to hear terms such as "exit velocity", "Stat-Cast", and "Route Efficiency". Print sources are getting in on the game as well, with Fangraphs introducing "Hard%", and by extension Soft% and Med%, to act as a proxy for exit velocity. Many people have caught a […]

10 years ago

Jon Gray (SP, COL) - Waiver Wire Analysis

BALLER MOVE: Add in desperate situations or in deeper leagues with innings limits. OWNED IN: 6% of Fleaflicker leagues ANALYSIS: Allow me to preface this by saying that a certain degree of desperation is required to roll the dice on a Colorado pitcher. That said, there are plenty of fantasy teams that might be able to […]

10 years ago

Champ or Chump: What to Make of Yoenis Cespedes, Jose Reyes, and Cole Hamels

The July 31st non-waiver trade deadline has come and gone, resulting in a good deal of moves that make little sense. Why did the Mets spend solid prospects on a one year rental that is showing all of the signs of a lucky season? Why is Jose Reyes a Colorado Rockie? Why did the Texas […]

10 years ago

Yangervis Solarte (1B / 2B / 3B, SD) - Waiver Wire Pickups

BALLER MOVE: Add in 12+ Team Leagues (Injury Replacement) OWNED IN: 12% of Fleaflicker leagues ANALYSIS: The biggest complaint about the Padres' offseason was that they did nothing to improve a terrible infield, with only second sacker Jedd Gyorko showing any upside of the bunch. Gyorko and the Padres have failed, but Yangervis Solarte has been […]

10 years ago

Champs or Chumps: Zobrist, Kazmir, Cueto

This is one of the most exciting times in the baseball season, especially if your team is in the hunt. Trades are fun to speculate about, but they can change the fantasy landscape even more dramatically than the real world in which they take place. So, who to cover in an article like this? Tulo […]

10 years ago

Aramis Ramirez (3B, PIT) - Waiver Wire Pickups

BALLER MOVE: Add in the deepest of leagues for power. OWNED IN: 55% of Fleaflicker leagues. ANALYSIS: There can be no doubt that Pittsburgh fans were excited to see one of their best players of the last decade get a chance to contribute for a winning Pirates team - even if he is doing so […]

10 years ago

Mark Buehrle (SP, TOR) - Waiver Wire Pickups

BALLER MOVE: Add in Deeper Leagues OWNED IN: 38% of Fleaflicker leagues ANALYSIS: Buehrle may seem mixed league relevant based on his 11-5 record and 3.23 ERA, but fantasy owners find his 4.49 K/9 to be a huge letdown. If you play in a league that uses K/9 or caps innings, you can stop reading now […]

10 years ago

By Keith Allison (Flickr: Mark Teixeira) [CC-BY-SA-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

Champ or Chump: Teixeira, Puig, and the ToddFather

The hardest thing about a column like this is not having all of the relevant data. I called Robinson Cano a Chump because his fantasy stats were bad and the underlying metrics weren't any better, but now it has come out that he had a bizarre stomach thing. There is no stat for bizarre stomach […]

10 years ago

Champ or Chump: Justin Turner, Jose Abreu, and The Dark Knight

This week, most columns like this one are focusing on those that made the All-Star team - after all, fantasy leagues are going through a quiet week because of it. I'm going to zig when the others zag because my team lost and instead cover players that were not involved in the game. Two were All-Stars […]

10 years ago

Champ or Chump: What to Make of Kyle Gibson, Joc Pederson, and Corey Kluber

You know, I'm actually kind of upset that Omar Infante is not going to the All-Star Game. Don't get me wrong - there is no way he's actually worthy of an All-Star selection. If he made it, though, Yost would have needed to perform a roster miracle to get 14 other teams represented, compromising quality […]

10 years ago

Neal Walker (2B, PIT) - Waiver Wire Analysis

BALLER MOVE: Add in 12+ Team Leagues OWNED IN: 65% of Fleaflicker leagues ANALYSIS: Neil Walker has been on a tear recently, hitting .600 in the month of July. Overall, however, Walker is actually just shy of his career norms. His current triple slash line is .278/.344/.419 with 6 HR, still solid production from a middle […]

10 years ago

Champ or Chump: What to make of Maikel Franco, Shelby Miller, and Carlos Correa

Younger players rule the day this week as we look at two rookies and a once hyped pitching prospect. The small sample sizes make determinations more difficult, but that is not going to stop their labeling as either Champs or Chumps. Lets begin.   Maikel Franco (3B, PHI) The one exception to the preseason notion […]

10 years ago

By Marianne O'Leary on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational (Crop) [CC BY 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

Champ or Chump: What to Make of Billy Burns, Pablo Sandoval, and Albert Pujols

Lately I feel as though I have discussed many pitchers in this space, so let's switch it up a little. This week, I will be discussing all people with bats. I'll also order the players in traditional batting order format: a fast guy will lead off, a contact guy will hit second, and a middle […]

10 years ago

Champs or Chumps: What to Make of Mike Pelfrey, Trevor May, and Big Papi

Did you realize that the Twins were in first place for a couple of minutes in a division that includes not only free spending Detroit but the American League All Star Team as well? They have since faded, but attaining first at all required quite a few players far exceeding preseason expectations, especially in their […]

10 years ago

Why You Should Buy Yovani Gallardo in Very Deep Leagues

Why I'm Buying Yovani Gallardo in Very Deep Leagues While Gallardo has largely been written off by fantasy owners, he is currently enjoying a career revival, following up last season's solid 3.51 ERA with a 5-6, 3.45 performance this season. FIP largely buys him as well, with a 3.62 figure. The success has not been […]

10 years ago

By Scott U (Sonny Gray (3)) [CC BY 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

Champs or Chumps: Lucas Duda, Sonny Gray, and Clay Buchholz

Nearly everyone now agrees that sabermetrics have a use both in MLB front offices and in the fantasy arena, but the extent of this belief still varies. The Boston Red Sox have a league average starting rotation according to the advanced metrics, and are therefore still a popular postseason pick in some analytical circles. Their […]

10 years ago

Mike Foltynewicz (SP, ATL) - Waiver Wire Pickups

BALLER MOVE: Add in All Leagues OWNED IN: 10% of Fleaflicker leagues ANALYSIS: So a 3-2 record with a 4.29 ERA from Mike Foltynewicz on a weaker team does not excite you at first glance. Okay, how about a 3.83 FIP. Still no? What about a 9.31 K/9? Now you're listening? Good. Atlanta's random assortment of […]

10 years ago

Nate Karns (SP, TB) - Waiver Wire Pickups

BALLER MOVE: Add in Very Deep Leagues or Stream in Good Matchups OWNED IN: 20% of Fleaflicker leagues ANALYSIS: Karns' numbers look league average at first glance - 3-2 with a 3.63 ERA - and his strikeout rate is acceptable at 8.13 K/9. The walks, however, can kill your WHIP - 3.92 BB/9 is simply dreadful. […]

10 years ago

Champs or Chumps: Bryce Harper, Gregory Polanco, A.J. Burnett

Once again, it is time to attempt to sort through the statistical noise that comes standard with every baseball season and work out whether current performances are sustainable or if significant regression should be expected. This week, we look at a pitcher making a strong case for Comeback Player of the Year, a Pirates outfielder […]

10 years ago

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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Michael Conforto5 hours ago

Homers, Scores Three Runs
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Signs Minor-League Deal With Mets
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Kyle McCord Rising Up Draft Boards?
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Saints Expected To Visit With Quinn Ewers
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Tallies Goal, Assist In Victory
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Stays Hot On The Scoresheet
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On Track To Play Tuesday
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Remains Out Against Blue Jackets
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Looking To Find The Magic Again In San Antonio
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Is Nearly A Must-Play At Valero Texas Open
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Enjoys Nice Result In Houston
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Off To A Subpar 2025 So Far
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Has Three Straight Top-10 Finishes For First Time In His Career
NASCAR3 days ago

Bubba Wallace After Third-Place Finish At Martinsville: "What a Great Day"
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Brandon Moreno3 days ago

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Steve Erceg3 days ago

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Gets Submitted
Édgar Cháirez3 days ago

Edgar Chairez Gets Submission Win At UFC Mexico City
Vince Morales3 days ago

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Gets Decision Win At UFC Mexico City
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Collects A Top-Five Finish At Martinsville
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Places 22nd After Struggles At Martinsville
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Has A Great Day At Martinsville
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Could Get First Three-Race Top-10 Streak Of His Career
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Looking To Continue Great Runs At Martinsville
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Wins Pole At Martinsville, But Can He Stay Up There?
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Fast In Practice But Skeptical About Car
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Steve Erceg6 days ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
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An Underdog At UFC Mexico City
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Looks To Extend His Win Streak
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Looks For His First UFC Win
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