Nick Chubb Fantasy Football Outlook – Are You In or Out?

Rob takes a deep dive into Nick Chubb’s fantasy football value to determine if you should draft him in 2023. Is he worth his current ADP or does Chubb have bust potential?

Fantasy managers often identify Nick Chubb as one of the best pure runners in the NFL, but he’s never viewed as an elite running back in fantasy football. His minimal receiving work and the presence of former teammate Kareem Hunt would constantly capp his ceiling. However, Hunt is now a free agent, and Chubb’s ADP has soared this offseason as a result. This leaves fantasy managers wondering if he can finally provide the true elite ceiling that he has yet to obtain.

You can find previous editions of the "Are You In or Out?" series here:

• Travis Etienne: In or Out Series Edition
• J.K. Dobbins: In or Out Series Edition
• Kyle Pitts: In or Out Series Edition
• George Pickens: In or Out Series Edition
• D.J. Moore: In or Out Series Edition
• Michael Pittman Jr.: In or Out Series Edition
• Aaron Jones: In or Out Series Edition

Chubb is currently being drafted as the RB6 in Underdog drafts with an ADP of 18.0, requiring fantasy managers to use a mid-second-round pick. Should you be in or out on him at that cost? We’ll discuss that in this article.

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The Best of The Best

When it comes to pure rushers in the NFL, there’s Derrick Henry, Nick Chubb, and everyone else. It really is that simple. Last year, however, Henry started to slip ever so slightly from his “un-human” perch down to an elite one, giving Chubb a strong argument as the league’s best pure runner. Anyone can see his insane talent on the television screen and his efficiency metrics display it as well.

The table above shows where the former Georgia Bulldog ranks in several of the most important rushing efficiency metrics since Chubb’s first season as the Browns’ primary starter. The results and numbers speak for themselves. Across five metrics and four seasons, we have 20 total data points and there is just one where he didn’t finish in the top 10. It’s just remarkable how good he has been.

As great of a runner as he is, Chubb has a reputation among the fantasy football community for being a safe, but unexciting, pick. He’s constantly dogged by his lack of a receiving role, which undoubtedly limits his ceiling. However, the limitations appear to be slightly exaggerated looking at his fantasy football finishes.

When we talk about elite upside, what is it? Does RB5 not qualify? That’s an answer each individual needs to answer for themselves. However, the facts are that since Chubb became the full-time starter in 2019, he’s finished as a top-10 RB in half-PPR PPG every season. He's been incredibly consistent and has always provided fantasy managers with mid-to-backend RB1 numbers.

We often think of things as having to be all or nothing, but that doesn’t need to be the case here. We can admit that his lack of receiving work has limited his ceiling (it has), while also admitting it hasn’t stopped him from being an elite fantasy asset (it has not). Unless you consider RB5 and RB6 not to be elite, then we just have different opinions. An RB5 or even an RB8 is an incredibly valuable fantasy football piece.

Deciphering Nick Chubb’s Crux

It is no mystery that Chubb’s limited receiving role has not allowed him to become a true candidate to finish as the RB1 or even as a top-three running back. However, with Kareem Hunt not likely to be back in Cleveland, fantasy managers seem to believe there’s a good chance Chubb gets more involved in the passing game this season. There's a lot of logic to this line of thinking.

You can see from the table above, the fifth-year veteran has yet to see more than 50 targets in a season and has averaged just 32.5 targets per year since 2019. There are several reasons for this; the first is his limited opportunity as he has just one season where he’s run a route on more than 40% of the team’s dropbacks. He's never ranked higher than 27th in this statistic among running backs.

Hunt, on the other hand, recorded route percentages of 44.8% (2022), 38.0% (2021), 48.9% (2020), and 44.5% (2019). Theoretically, his absence creates an opportunity for Chubb to run more routes, which would likely lead to an increase in targets. The current backup — Jerome Ford — didn’t record a single target last season as a rookie. During Ford's final two years in college, he had just 34 targets, 29 receptions, and 271 yards. He finished with a 6.2% college target share, which was in the 42nd percentile, according to PlayerProfiler. Needless to say, Ford does not profile as a pass-catching back in the same manner that Hunt did, which is a great sign that Chubb's role will increase in the passing game. That’s the glass-half-full approach.

The glass-half-empty approach is that both Deshaun Watson and head coach Kevin Stefanski have rarely targeted the position. In Watson’s three years as the primary starter for Houston, he targeted his running backs on just 14.7% of his passes. The league average is 18%. Since Stefanski became the head coach of the Browns in 2020, his quarterbacks have targeted the running backs on just 14.8% of their passes. Combining these two together is going to limit just how many targets the running backs see.

It certainly appears as though Cleveland intends to increase their passing volume in 2023. With Watson behind center and having had enough time to knock the rust off, this makes sense. Especially with the weapons they have out wide with Amari Cooper, Elijah Moore, Donovan Peoples-Jones, and David Njoku. Last year, they averaged 31.8 pass attempts per game, good for 21st in the NFL. It’s reasonable to expect the Browns to finish more middle of the pack this season, which would put their pass attempts per game average around 33.75.

Chubb hasn’t had a target share north of 7.5% in the last three seasons (the Stefanski years), but if his route participation increases, as we expect it to, his target share will likely follow. If the Browns finish with around 574 attempts and Chubb has a 10% target share, which would be a career-high, he’d finish with roughly 57 targets. This is likely a realistic best-case scenario outcome. He had a 7.3% target share last year, which would be 43 targets, which gives us the more likely range fantasy managers should expect (40–50 targets).

Touchdown Potential

One area that could help offset a lower-than-ideal target number is touchdowns. Typically, a top-five finish requires a high number of touchdowns to be scored. Based on utilization over the past seasons, fantasy managers should be very optimistic about Chubb’s potential for a spike season in touchdowns.

In the table above, you can see where the Cleveland offense has ranked in overall points scored, as well as Chubb’s red zone utilization and how it ranks among running backs. An interesting thing to note is that Hunt has received 29 (2022), 19 (2021), and 48 (2020) red zone touches under Stefanski. These numbers ranked 31st, 49th, and 10th among running backs respectively. It’s highly unlikely Ford would have anywhere close to the same kind of red zone role that Stefanski afforded Hunt, which could also mean more work for Chubb where it matters the most.

Not surprisingly, Chubb scored the most touchdowns of his career in 2020 and 2022, with 12 and 13, respectively. These correlated with the top-two scoring seasons Cleveland has had over the past four years. Should Watson return to form, fantasy managers could be looking at the best offense Chubb has played a part in. Considering Watson is just 28 years old and factoring in just how good he was in Houston, this really ought to be the expectation. If the Cleveland offense becomes a top-10 scoring unit, it's certainly within the realm of possibility that Chubb scores the most touchdowns of his career. If they continue to operate as a middle-of-the-pack type of offense like they were in 2020 and 2022, and with Hunt's departure, fantasy managers should have 11–13 touchdowns again this upcoming season.

So… Are You In or Out?

Fantasy managers are certainly optimistic that this could be the best season in Chubb’s career from a fantasy perspective. He’s currently being drafted as Underdog’s RB6 with an ADP of 18.0. That’s certainly a hefty price tag but it’s an outcome that Chubb has achieved before. One thing fantasy managers should find appealing is Chubb's level of consistency.

He’s averaged 16.7 carries per game since Stefanski became the head coach. Using his 5.3 yards per carry under Stefanski, Chubb would finish with around 1,505 rushing yards. Earlier, we gave him a realistic range of outcomes between 40–50 targets with 55–60 being the ceiling. Giving him 47 targets, he’d be expected to have 35 catches and around 290 receiving yards. If he scores 12 TDs, which is a feat he’s accomplished both times Cleveland finished in the top 50% in overall scoring, he’d have a 15.8 half-PPR PPG. Last season, this would’ve been RB6, which is right in line with his current ranking.

Fantasy managers should continue drafting Chubb in that RB6–8 range, but I’d advise caution with anything higher than that because, at that point, you’d be selecting him at his ceiling. If Chubb has 50+ targets, which is possible with Hunt’s absence, there could be surplus value in drafting him in the RB6–8 range. However, anything higher than that, you’d just be breaking even and even if he doesn’t hit that target total, he’s unlikely to pay off.

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