September 11, 2018

Elliott Baas looks at some starting pitchers who turned in surprising starts recently. These SP could be sleepers and waiver wire targets, or simply mirages.

Welcome to our surprising starts series. Every week we’ll be going over a few surprising starting pitcher performances around the majors to determine whether these starts were smoke and mirrors or something more.

This week we saw a pitcher flirt with a perfect game, another solid performance from a no-name pitcher, and the possible resurgence of a former ERA-king.

Jorge Lopez took a perfect game into the ninth Saturday and has had two straight great starts for the Royals. Felix Pena has filled in admirably for the Angels after their many injuries in the rotation, and Aaron Sanchez looked like he may finally get back on track.

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The Jury Is Out

Aaron Sanchez, Toronto Blue Jays

2018 Stats (prior to this start): 88 IP, 5.22 ERA, 4.63 FIP, 1.4  K/BB ratio

09/05 vs. TB: 6 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 8 K

Sanchez’s stock has taken a nosedive ever since he led the American League in ERA back in 2016. He’s been plagued by injuries ever since, and a finger bruise cost him about two months this year. Control has been a major issue for Sanchez, which problem exacerbated by his low strikeout rate. Since Sanchez is a groundball pitcher he is prone to surrendering hits, and coupled with his high walk rate leads to excessive baserunners and a high WHIP. Over the past two seasons Sanchez has a 12% walk rate and 1.64 WHIP, both untenable numbers for a starting pitcher. This start against the Rays was encouraging for Sanchez, and both the positives and negatives of this start were opposite of how Sanchez has succeeded in the past.

Sanchez has the same four-pitch repertoire that he’s always had, using a four-seam fastball, sinker, changeup, and curveball. The changeup is the jewel of Sanchez’s arsenal and he’s begun throwing it more than ever this season. He had been throwing it fewer than 10% of the time before 2018, but now he is throwing it 24.5% of the time. His 17.5% whiff rate on the changeup is also above his career average, leading to a career high 9.7% SwStr rate. There is little velocity separation between Sanchez’s changeup, which averages 88.3 MPH, and his fastball, which averages 93.7 MPH. Normally that isn’t a quality we look for in pitchers, but Sanchez’s changeup is deceptive out of his hand and looks similar to his fastball on the way to the plate. Batters have hit .240 against the changeup, but those results have been a little unlucky according to Statcast expected stats. Batters have a .198 xBA and .270 xwOBA against the pitch, so it may have better performance coming down the road.

Something Sanchez did differently in this start was use his curveball 20.4% of the time, which is only the second time this season he threw the pitch more than 16% of the time. He got three of his 11 swinging strikes with the pitch, and it complimented his changeup nicely to help Sanchez tie a season-high eight strikeouts. Sanchez has already started using his changeup more often, so perhaps he’ll transition into incorporating the curveball more into his pitch mix. When watching this game Sanchez’s curveball stood out the most. It had sharp drop, and per Pitch F/x data it had two more inches of drop in this start compared to both his career and season average. Here is an example of one of his best from this start.

Not only does it drop down sharply, but moves inside on the batter, making it nigh impossible to hit. Sanchez’s curveball has one of the better spin rates in the league at 2882 average RPM. Here’s a Statcast chart demonstrating how he compares to the rest of the league (min. 150 curveballs thrown). Spin rate is on the X axis while xBA is on the Y axis.

He isn’t the best by any means, but among 126 pitchers he’s in the top ten in curveball spin rate. The dot right next to him, practically on top of him, is noted curveball wizard Rich Hill. Hill’s curveball is in contention for best curveballs in the majors. Sanchez isn’t there yet and may never get to that level, but this pitch looks like a plus breaking ball that he can start using more often.

Despite the positives from this start, he still allowed two walks and two home runs and had a bare minimum quality start. Sanchez has had eight quality starts this season and four of them have been the bare minimum of six innings pitched and three runs allowed. The two home runs were an anomaly for Sanchez, as this is only the second time he’s allowed multiple home runs all season and only the seventh time in his career that has happened. Other than his injury-riddled 2017 Sanchez has never had a problem with home runs, and his problems that year were caused by a 17% HR/FB ratio. Kevin Kiermaier hit both of the home runs against Sanchez and was only a foot away from a third, so perhaps we can chalk it up to Kiermaier having Sanchez’s number in this one.

Walks remain a big issue for Sanchez, and unlike home runs they cannot be written off this one time. He’s had a 12% walk rate over the past two seasons and along with his tendency to surrender hits make for a lot of baserunners and a lot of runs scored, even if he does a good job limiting home runs. In his two starts prior to this game Sanchez allowed 11 earned runs on 18 hits and five walks over 8.1 innings despite not surrendering a home run. Since he still has the ability to implode like that he’s too dangerous to use in fantasy right now. There are some encouraging things here, but Sanchez is someone to watch rather than someone to add for 2018. If these trends continue he could be an interesting sleeper in 2019.

Verdict:

An impressive mix of fastballs, changeups, and curveballs kept the Rays flailing and led to eight strikeouts for Sanchez. Problems with walks and base hits lead to more than the occasional blow up. His next start is at Boston on Wednesday, which is a hard pass. It’s worth paying attention to Sanchez, but it’s probably best to watch from a distance for now.

 
Felix Pena, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

2018 Stats (prior to this start): 68.2 IP, 4.19 ERA, 4.13 FIP, 2.7 K/BB ratio

09/07 @ CWS: 7 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 6 K

Pena has been a serviceable fill-in for the Angels as they’ve seen their pitching depth get decimated by injuries this season. Pena is a 28-year-old who originally came up through the Cubs’ system, but after floundering in their bullpen he latched onto the Angels and has been in their rotation since mid-June. Pena has really turned things up since the beginning of August, posting a 3.14 ERA and 3.5 K/BB ratio over his last seven starts and this no-name is becoming a legitimate fantasy consideration.

Pena’s uses a four-pitch repertoire but mostly throws two pitches. He pitches off of a two-seam fastball and slider while occasionally mixing in a changeup. He was throwing a four-seamer when he first joined the Angels rotation but has all-but abandoned the pitch. In August he only threw the pitch four times total and hasn’t thrown it in his last three starts. Over the past two months Pena has become a two-pitch pitcher, throwing the sinker and slider over 90% of the time combined. The slider has been the source of Pena’s strikeouts and his best pitch overall. On the season batters are hitting .169 with a .156 xBA and .203 xwOBA, and the pitch also has a 21% whiff rate. Here’s an example of the pitch from this start.

It has above average drop and horizontal movement, giving the makings of a plus breaking ball. Pena got four of his ten whiffs with the slider in this start, but he’s racked up some high whiff totals with the pitch in other games this season. On August 15 he got ten whiffs with the slider against San Diego, and on August 21 he got 11 whiff against Arizona. There are flaws in Pena’s game, but there is no denying the legitimacy of his slider.

His sinker is an impressive offering as well and pairs nicely with the slider. It is above the league average in drop on sinkers by 1.5 inches and has solid late movement that often catches batters looking. His sinker has a 44.5% swing rate and 63% zone swing rate, both below league average. In this start specifically Pena would throw it with two strikes or when ahead in the count, and batters looking for his slider were left frozen. Pena is slightly above league average among starters in strikeout rate, SwStr rate, and K/BB ratio, but this pair of pitches has the potential to bring his strikeout rate up even higher.

The biggest thing holding Pena back right now is a lack of a reliable third pitch. In this most recent start he threw his changeup 17% of the time, but normally it has a usage rate below 10%. He only throws the pitch to lefties, so his usage may depend on the number of lefties in the opposing lineup. The White Sox started five lefties/switch hitters in this game, so Pena may have been more reliant on the pitch than usual. The pitch is nothing special, and lefties are hitting .318 with a .227 ISO against it. A third pitch will probably be necessary for consistent success, but the changeup isn’t the answer in its current state.

Verdict:

Because of the lack of a third pitch and poor track record Pena is tough to trust every time out, but he is a perfectly acceptable streaming option. He’s also widely available, owned in just 9% of Yahoo leagues as of writing this. Outside of an utterly catastrophic blowup against Seattle (0.1 IP, 7 ER) Pena has a 3.23 ERA on the year. His next start is home against Texas, and Pena is a fine streaming option in that game.

 
Jorge Lopez, Kansas City Royals

2018 Stats (prior to this start): 40.1 IP, 4.24 ERA, 4.12 FIP, 1.6 K/BB ratio

09/08 @ MIN: 8 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 4 K

Lopez carried a perfect game into the ninth, and while he wasn’t able to finish it out Lopez still had a great start and picked up the win in Minnesota. This is the second straight good start from Lopez, who allowed one run over seven innings with eight strikeouts against the Orioles. Acquired from the Brewers at the deadline in the Mike Moustakas deal, Lopez was once a highly touted pitching prospect. His stock fell quite a bit when Lopez got to Triple-A because he got absolutely smashed with the Brewers’ Triple-A team. In fairness the Brewers’ Triple-A team is in Colorado Springs in the PCL, which may be a worse pitching environment than Coors Field. Altogether Lopez has a 6.31 ERA and 1.78 WHIP in 117 innings at Triple-A and the Brewers were just hoping Lopez could turn out as a bullpen piece.

Lopez has a 4.40 ERA in five starts for the Royals, but it’s been a roller coaster ride in those five starts. In three of them Lopez allowed only one run, and in the other two Lopez allowed 11 earned runs in 8.2 innings. He has a five-pitch repertoire consisting of a 94 MPH two-seamer and four-seamer, a changeup, a slider, and a curveball. The sinker and curveball are Lopez’s two most used pitches, but he throws every pitch more than 10% of the time. Looking at all these pitches, the curveball is the standout pitch. Batters are hitting .186 with a .180 xBA and .205 xwOBA against the pitch with a 60.7% groundball rate. It’s not a big strikeout pitch with just an 11% whiff rate, but a tough pitch to make solid contact against and hit for power against. There have been only two extra base hits against Lopez’s curveball all season, both doubles.

The ability to limit home runs has been Lopez’s best skill this season. He has only allowed three in 48.1 innings, all on fastballs. He is benefitting from a 6.8% HR/FB ratio, but other than his 2016 Triple-A season Lopez has always been good at preventing the long ball. He has been a good groundball pitcher in the minors but Lopez has an average groundball rate this season at 44.3% and has a 43.3% hard contact rate against, so Lopez is almost certainly going to experience home run regression. His home ballpark in Kansas City should help him prevent home runs but relying on the ballpark only gets him so far.

Lopez does not stand out in strikeouts or control and surrenders a lot of hard contact. His current 3.72 ERA has been aided by a .268 BABIP and a 6.8% HR/FB ratio. He’s also on such a bad team that wins will be hard to come by in games not against the Orioles or Twins. His 4.76 SIERA portends forthcoming doom for Lopez, and despite two consecutive great starts there isn’t much here that suggests Lopez can sustain this level of success. He’s a low-end streamer at best, and incredibly hard to trust entering playoff time. In a desperate situation he’s startable, but hopefully no one’s fantasy season comes down to Jorge Lopez.

Verdict:

A low BABIP and HR/FB ratio have allowed Lopez to find success at times, but there isn’t a standout skill here and the underlying metrics do not support recent performance. He doesn’t get strikeouts, walks too many batters, and won’t get many wins. In a pinch he is startable as a streamer, but preferably it won’t come to that. His next start is Friday at home against these same Twins, so if you are looking for a pure volume play Lopez is a fine but not a particularly inspiring option.

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