Are You For Real? Surprising SP Starts from Week 6

Elliott Baas looks at starting pitchers who turned in surprising starts recently. These SP could emerge as waiver wire targets and sleepers, or simply mirages.

April hot streaks are either fading or becoming more real, so this week we're looking at pitchers who've had more than one surprising start and a surprising first six weeks of the season. This week's trio capped off their hot starts with some of the best outings of their season, if not their career, this past week.

This week we break down the fourth pitcher to throw a no-hitter (and second to do so against Cleveland), Wade Miley. We also look at Adrian Houser's 10 strikeout day in Miami, an exclamation point on his under-the-radar first month. Finally, we're breaking down a familiar face in fantasy baseball, ex-wunderkind Nick Pivetta and his 5-0 start to the season.

Roster percentages quoted in this piece are based on Yahoo availability and are accurate as of 05/10/2021.

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Wade Miley, Cincinnati Reds

53% Rostered

2021 Stats (Prior to this start): 27 IP, 2.67 ERA, 3.89 FIP, 2.7 K/BB ratio

05/07 @ CLE: 9 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 8 K

It was a historic Friday night for veteran left-hander Wade Miley, who tossed his first career no-hitter. It was the second no-hitter in the majors this week and the fourth on the young season. It was also Miley’s first complete game since 2016 and the eight strikeouts were his highest total since 2019. This start was Miley’s best, but it was a continuation of a torrid start for the 34-year-old southpaw. After throwing just 14.1 disastrous innings in 2020 for the Reds, Miley has dazzled through his first six starts, posting a sparking 2.00 ERA with a 3.38 K/BB ratio. Miley has never been much more than a back-end arm through his 10 years in the bigs, but could there be a tweak here to give him a late-career breakout, a la Charlie Morton and Rich Hill?

To understand Miley’s evolution, I want to take you back to a simpler, happier time. The ball hadn’t yet been juiced, Christian Yelich’s back was healthy, moviegoers around the world were captivated by Marvel’s Black Panther, and there were actual moviegoers around the world. The year was 2018, and Wade Miley was coming off an abysmal season in Baltimore that saw him get hammered for a 5.61 ERA and 5.32 BB/9, in 32 starts no less. Miley’s fastball took the brunt of the beating too, as batters put up a Ruthian .336 AVG, .579 SLG, and 1.003 OPS against the heater. With his baseball life in jeopardy, Miley decided to buck conventional pitching wisdom and stopped using his fastball as his primary pitch. He also axed his slider, an underwhelming, hittable bender. He’s revamped his pitching style to become a cutter/changeup pitcher with the occasional fastball or curveball, and it’s been working for him thus far.

Did Miley make this change through arduous offseason work, spending time with driveline baseball and using a rapsodo machine to finely engineer the career-saving pitch? Not quite. According to Miley he was in the middle of a shelling at the hands Tampa Bay back in 2017 and, “just made it up in the middle of the game” (full article). It was the light bulb moment for Miley, and he's using his changeup as a primary offspeed pitch 32.2% of the time this season. The cutter has been much more effective for Miley, as batters are hitting .247 with a 101 wRC+ against it all time, and have just a .175 AVG against the pitch in 2021.

This new pitching style has turned Miley into a soft contact artist, as batters have a paltry 83.8 MPH average exit velocity against Miley this season, the second-lowest in the majors behind fellow lefty cutter specialist Ryan Yarborough. This pitching style has also made Miley a ground ball machine, as he has a 58.8% ground ball rate this season, fourth-highest among pitchers who have thrown at least 30 innings this season.

While the small sample size has certainly worked in Miley’s favor, there’s long-term evidence to suggest solid production is sustainable. Between 2018-2021 Miley has a 3.44 ERA, 4.13 FIP, 0.9 HR/9, and 51.6% ground ball rate in 298.1 innings. In the four seasons between 2014-2017, Miley posted a 4.89 ERA, 4.32 FIP, 1.1 HR/9, and 49.4% ground ball rate. He has also consistently posted some of the lowest average exit velocity numbers and barrel rate numbers against since 2018. The reduction in home run rate might be the most impressive change for me, since home runs are much more prevalent in today’s game compared to the mid-2010s It looks like that thing he just tried in the middle of game back in 2017 not only kept him in baseball, but is giving him the best years of his career.

As impressive as Miley’s turnaround is, his overall ceiling is limited. Obviously, his .162 BABIP and 83.3% LOB rate are going to normalize to more realistic numbers. With a recent no-hitter his BABIP can’t help but be artificially deflated. He just threw nine innings with a .000 BABIP. That a quarter of his innings all season without a hit. It’s not just the BABIP I’m concerned with for Miley going forward. Miley’s strikeout rate will remain pitifully low, likely under 7.5 K/9. It’s a wonder he managed eight strikeouts in this game given that he had just nine whiffs on 114 pitches and had a 28% CSW rate. He’s a junkballer trying to induce weak contact, not someone who can get many pitches past big league hitters.

For a pitcher that puts the ball in play this much, the Reds really aren’t a good fit for him. There are some defensive butchers on this team, most notably Eugenio Suarez, who already has -6 DRS at shortstop. Others like Jesse Winker, Nick Castellanos, and Joey Votto (when healthy) don’t help Miley’s cause either. It was nice to see every ball in play find a glove in this game, but that won’t happen often given the defense behind Miley.

Overall, Miley is probably better than he gets credit for in the fantasy community. He’s old, boring, doesn’t get strikeouts, and has a rocky track record, which is why he hasn’t gotten much attention despite his late-career changes. If healthy, he should be a rotation fixture for Cincinnati all year. A season similar to his 2019 with Houston (3.98 ERA, 7.53 K/9, 167.1 IP) is probably the best possible outcome. Of all the no-hitter pitchers we’ve had this year, Miley is the one I’d be looking to sell-high if you can get good value for him. He’s not a top-50 starter, heck he’s probably not a top-75 starter, but if someone will pay for him like he is, then sell.

Verdict:

Wade Miley just threw the best game of his career and good for him! However, it doesn’t change who he is in the fantasy world, which is a low-strikeout fringe pitcher with a tendency for hot streaks. He deserves credit for resurrecting his career and doing the most with his limited physical abilities relative to the rest of MLB, but we aren’t grading on a curve in fantasy. His next start is scheduled for Thursday in Colorado, which is already scary, and given that he’s coming off a 114-pitch effort, I don’t see how Miley could be started in a standard league. After that it looks like he’s got a two-start week with home outings against San Francisco and Milwaukee. Miley is much more appealing that week.

Adrian Houser, Milwaukee Brewers

10% Rostered

2021 Stats (Prior to this start): 30.2 IP, 3.52 ERA, 4.51 FIP, 1.9 K/BB ratio

05/08 @ MIA: 6 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 10 K

Houser did it all on Saturday, tying a career high with 10 strikeouts en route to his third win of the season, and crushing a 101.7 MPH, 389-foot bomb off of Marlins lefty Daniel Castano. It was one of the more dominant starts of Houser’s young career, and he’s now sporting an impressive 3.44 ERA on the season long with a 21% strikeout rate. Houser is easily overshadowed in Milwaukee by Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes, and Freddy Peralta, but with his hot start, fantasy managers are certainly wondering if we have yet another breakout in the Cream City.

Despite wearing the same logo on their caps, Houser’s pitching style is the polar opposite to his rotation mates in Milwaukee. Instead of blowing fastballs by hitters or buckling knees with a gravity-defying bender, Houser is primarily a sinkerball pitcher, which is something of a dying breed in modern baseball. He gets it done with a 93.5 MPH two-seam fastball as his primary pitch and with a curve ball as his most frequently used breaking ball. He rounds out his arsenal with a 94 MPH four-seam fastball, a changeup, and a slider, three pitches he uses under 15% of the time each.

The sinker really is the standout pitch for Houser, and opponents have had trouble squaring it up this season. Batters have just a .216 AVG and .257 SLG against Houser’s sinker in 2021, and an unreal -5-degree average launch angle. Houser achieves this with above-average drop on the pitch along with effective command, keeping it in the lower third of the strike zone with consistency. Here’s an example of one of Houser’s sinkers from a start earlier this season.

It has effective downward movement, and with about 100 RPM difference between his sinker and four-seamer, it’s hard for batters to square it up. Houser boasts a -9 run value with his sinker, making it not only one of the best sinkers in the game thus far, but one of the best pitches of any kind in preventing runs. Houser has certainly benefitted a bit from small sample size luck with his sinker, but for his career he has a .233 AVG, .624 OPS, .090 ISO, and 70% ground ball rate with the pitch. He has quietly been throwing an elite sinker over the past few seasons to little fanfare.

If Houser is getting little fanfare it’s because his elite skill is perhaps the least exciting for a pitcher to own. Even the best sinkerballers are inherently limited by their lack of strikeouts and their reliance on the mercy of the BABIP Gods. The rest of Houser’s arsenal leaves a lot to be desired, as he has a microscopic 7.5% swinging strike rate on the year. He also has a swinging strike rate under 8% on all of his pitches besides his seldom-used slider. He did generate 17 whiffs in this start against Miami, including 12 whiffs with the sinker, but that seems more like an aberration than a sign of things to come. The Marlins have the fifth-highest strikeout rate in baseball heading into play Monday, and are playing without two of their best hitters, Starling Marte and Jazz Chisholm.

Even though Houser’s sinker produces ground balls at a prodigious rate, he’s still struggled to keep runners off the bases. He has overachieved with his curve ball this season, posting a .231 AVG against but a .302 xBA and .529 xSLG, thanks in most part to a 13-degree average launch angle against. His changeup and slider have been smoked for a .385 AVG and .308 AVG respectively and it seems that Houser really doesn’t have much to balance out his sinker.

Houser does one thing quite well, and that gives him fantasy value in deep leagues or as a streamer, but his upside is hard-capped as a streaming option because of his limited repertoire. At his best, he might resemble a healthy Framber Valdez. At his worst, he’ll resemble the 2021 version of Brad Keller. Houser lands somewhere comfortably between that spectrum, though closer to Keller than Valdez in most cases.

Verdict:

Houser can generate ground balls with the best of them, but it’s his only above average skill, giving him a low-ceiling in most situations. I wouldn’t expect double digit strikeouts with any regularity and I think Houser will live around the 7.0-7.5 K/9 range. He is streamable against weak lineups, but with how poorly some teams hit, you can get away with streaming a lot of pitchers against bottom-10 offenses. His next two outings are currently home against Atlanta and in Cincinnati, which are two lineups I would not test with Houser.

Nick Pivetta, Boston Red Sox

42% Rostered

2021 Stats (prior to this start): 30.2 IP, 3.23 ERA, 3.33 FIP, 1.7 K/BB ratio

05/09 @ BAL: 6 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 2 K

Pivetta was a fantasy darling following a 2018 season where he posted a 3.42 xFIP and 3.69 K/BB ratio, but the young righty fell flat on his face, posting a disastrous 5.60 ERA and 5.50 FIP between 2019-2020, making him a cautionary tale against the fantasy hype machine. However, Pivetta looks to have found new life in Boston, as he has allowed three runs or fewer in each of his last five outings. The familiar name may be tempting to fantasy players searching for pitchers on waivers, especially now that Pivetta is 5-0 with a 3.19 ERA on the year. Is the Nick Pivetta breakout finally happening or will the clock soon strike midnight on this fairy tale?

What made Pivetta such an interesting up-and-comer a few years ago was his mid-90s fastball and two solid breaking balls, which is generally a recipe for success as a big league starter. Pivetta averages 94.6 MPH with his heater and has a double digit strikeout rate with both his curve ball and slider all time. He rounds things out with a show-me changeup against left-handed batters. It seems like Pivetta has everything going for him. The problem? His pitches have this annoying tendency to get absolutely pulverized by opposing hitters. Batters are hitting .302 with a .924 OPS and .233 ISO against his four-seamer all time. Pivetta has a classic case of straight fastball syndrome. Velocity will only take you so far if you’ve got middling spin and live in the strike zone as Pivetta has done throughout his career.

Pivetta has been using his fastball differently in 2021, throwing it higher and out of the zone more often. He has a 51.9% zone rate with the four-seamer this season compared to a 62.2% zone rate in 2020 and a 57.2% zone rate all time. Here is a heat map comparison of his fastball location in 2021 (top) and previous seasons (bottom).

The bottom heat map looks like the red side of a Rubik’s cube, while in 2021 Pivetta has done a better job of keeping the fastball up in the zone where batters can’t square it up. Opposing hitters are hitting just .200 against the pitch with a career-low 87.3 MPH average exit velocity against. After getting crushed for a 93.9 MPH average exit velocity against, it’s nice to see Pivetta keep hard contact down, especially in a year where average exit velocity is up league-wide due to a lighter baseball.

It’s encouraging to see this type of adjustment for Pivetta, as it’s a subtle thing most people won’t notice unless they really dig deep on a player. Pivetta sustaining this success with his fastball is contingent on him maintaining somewhat suspect command, but if he can locate the fastball up, he should improve his year-end results with the pitch.

Unfortunately, this is where the positives end for Pivetta. The 28-year-old righty has been blessed by good fortune through his first seven starts. He has a .244 BABIP, 5.9% HR/FB ratio, and 77% strand rate, all marks that would be the best of his career. His 3.19 ERA might be the lowest of his career to this point, but his 5.00 SIERA is actually his highest mark. His fastball adjustments should allow him to keep a reduced home run rate, but there’s no chance Pivetta sniffs a 0.49 HR/9 this season. Based on his previous seasons, that number could easily double or triple given enough time. He also has a pitiful 1.59 K/BB ratio and a 14.7% walk rate, the fourth-worst and second-worst marks respectively among pitchers that have thrown at 30 innings this season.

It does not appear that Nick Pivetta is breaking out. Rather he’s been fortunate on balls-in-play and taken advantage of weak matchups this season. The only above-average lineup he’s faced this year was the Chicago White Sox, and Pivetta lasted just 3.2 innings and walked four in that outing, his worst of the season. I suppose you could stream him against a weak lineup, but I would rather not start someone with a 1.59 K/BB ratio regardless of matchup.

Verdict:

Sorry Pivetta believers, but he hasn’t turned the corner yet. His fastball changes are a positive sign, but there are too many negatives here to trust someone who’s had a 5.60 combined ERA over the last two seasons. His next two starts are home against the Angels and against the Blue Jays in Dunedin. He should not be used in those outings.

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