Are You For Real? Surprising Pitcher Starts from Week 2

Elliott Baas looks at starting pitchers who turned in surprising starts recently. These SP could emerge as waiver wire targets and sleepers for Week 2, or simply mirages.

Welcome back to "Are You For Real?", a weekly column where we take starting pitchers who had surprisingly good starts over the past week and put them under the microscope to determine whether they're legit or just smoke and mirrors.

This week we're looking at a pair of pitchers who've had shaky track records up to this point, but look strong to start 2023. We'll be breaking down Tylor Megill's scoreless outing on Friday, and we'll be looking at Kris Bubic's dominant start Sunday against the Giants.

Roster percentages are taken from Yahoo and are accurate as of 04/10/2023.

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Tylor Megill, New York Mets – 31% Rostered

2022 Stats: 47.1 IP, 5.13 ERA, 3.77 FIP, 19% K-BB%

04/07 vs. MIA: 6 IP, 0 ER, 2 BB, 3 K

Megill earned his second win of the season on Friday, blanking the Marlins over six innings in the 9-3 Mets victory.  Megill must love seafood because he’s feasted on the fish twice already in his first two starts, only surrendering one run in 11 combined innings against Miami. It’s another hot start for the big right-hander, and Megill appears to have a legitimate shot at keeping his rotation spot when Justin Verlander returns. With a great supporting cast around him, Megill has the potential to be a strong waiver wire add this early in the season, but can he keep it up?

As previously mentioned, Megill is no stranger to hot starts. He put up a 1.93 ERA in 28 innings last April only to succumb to injuries and poor performance, posting a 9.90 ERA after April 30 last season. It was a similar story for Megill in 2021, as he dominated with a 2.05 ERA through his first seven starts, only to post a 5.49 ERA in his next 11. What’s the deal? Why can’t Megill be good consistently, and have things changed this time?

One of the issues when it comes to analyzing Megill is the limited sample size due to the injuries. Megill has been around for a few years but only has 148 big-league innings to his name as of writing this, and some of that action came while he was pitching through injuries. From an arsenal standpoint, Megill’s looks complete. He works with a four-pitch mix consisting of a four-seam fastball, a slider, curveball, and a changeup. Of those pitches, one stands clearly above the others, and that is the slider.

Even at his worst, Megill has been able to get solid results with his slider. Opposing batters have a .182 AVG and .278 SLG off the pitch all time, and a .121 AVG and .151 SLG against it so far this season. Megill has been using the pitch more often thus far this season, throwing it 33.7% of the time in his first two starts compared to 19.5% usage last season. The usage rate isn’t the only change either, as Megill has added about 5.5 inches of drop to the pitch this season. That extra movement coincides with a velocity dip for Megill, who is only throwing the slider at 82.8 MPH this season compared to 85.7% MPH last year. To visualize these changes, I have an example of Megill’s slider from each year of his MLB career.

2023

2022

2021

The pitch has been shifting away from the sharp, flat, side-to-side slider we saw in 2021 to more of a slider-curveball hybrid given the amount of drop on the pitch. Whether this works out for Megill remains to be seen, because while the pitch has done well in preventing hits thus far, Megill has a relatively low 13.1% swinging strike rate with the pitch thus far and earned zero whiffs with the offering in this start. His 37.1% chase rate with the pitch is an encouraging improvement, but we need to see more from this pitch before declaring it a successful rework. It’s important to remember that, while Megill has some exciting traits, he’s only pitched 11 innings so far, and those came against the same team. Let’s see how this pitch fares against teams besides the Marlins.

Megill’s most used pitch is his four-seam, which is a middle-of-the-road mid-90s offering. The velocity is down quite a bit this season, as Megill is averaging 94.1 MPH with his fastball this season compared to 95.8 MPH this year. This could be an intentional change for Megill, who blamed his injuries on his velocity increase last season. Megill was viewed as a future bullpen piece for a lot of his minor league career, so he may be reconciling with the fact that he needs to exert less effort to stay effective over a longer period of time. Sure, he may not be throwing as hard, but if he can stay healthy and fresh for longer he could be an effective starter.

Through these first two starts, there is plenty to like about Megill. His increase in slider usage, his increased groundball rate (54.8%), and he’s only surrendered one home run after allowing 1.7 HR/9 in his first two seasons. The issue is that he’s only made two starts and faked us out before. Whether things can be different this time likely boils down to how one viewed his hot start last season. Megill believers will say it was the start of a breakout that was derailed by injury, while doubters will say Megill just doesn’t have what it takes to be an effective starter over the course of the season. This writer leans more towards the breakout camp because Megill has showcased what appears to be legitimate improvements in his approach and arsenal. He’s a talented pitcher who recognizes his weaknesses and makes small improvements over time, and barring health should all come together.

Verdict:

Many fantasy players will say, “not again, not this time” when they see Megill’s name on the wavier wire. Don’t be like them. Adding Megill could be an opportunity to zig where everyone else zags. Megill has shown us both strong potential and the ability to improve over time. He also has the edge over David Peterson for the Mets’ final rotation spot when Verlander returns in this writer’s eyes. Don’t blow your entire FAB on Megill, but 7-12% would be a good amount to spend.

Kris Bubic, Kansas City Royals – 10% Rostered

2022 Stats: 129 IP, 5.58 ERA, 4.78 FIP, 8% K-BB%

04/09/2023: 6 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 9 K

Bubic was at the top of his game on Sunday, firing six shutout innings and striking out nine in a tough-luck no-decision. The nine strikeouts tied a career-high for Bubic, and the lefty’s gem has him on fantasy radars. Is the former top prospect finally putting things together, or was this just a tease?

When it comes to breakouts, Bubic is doing everything we want to see from a pitcher. He’s allowed fewer walks this season, his velocity is up, and he’s throwing a new pitch. The problem is, of course, that it’s only been two starts for Bubic, and prior to 2023 he was doing everything we don’t want to see from a pitcher. Prior to this season, Bubic had a 4.89 ERA, 4.93 FIP, 1.9 K/BB ratio, and 1.4 HR/9. Ugly, ugly numbers with little redeeming underlying skills.

Bubic was one of many highly touted arms to come through the Kansas City organization and underwhelm during the late 2010s and early 2020s. But unlike some of those other prospects, it was hard to see the appeal in Bubic’s game from the beginning. As a soft-tossing lefty whose best pitch is a changeup, Bubic profiled as little more than a rotation filler coming up.

Soft-tossing is a description we can no longer use for Bubic, as the lefty has cranked up the velocity to an average of 93.2 MPH this season compared to 91.9 MPH last year. His fastball would be slightly above average in velocity if Bubic can maintain this change. Velocity isn’t the only area that Bubic’s fastball has improved, as his spin rate has increased to 2304 RPM, a jump of 170 RPM from last season, and gained lost two inches of break with the pitch. It’s still too early to tell, but these changes suggest that Bubic’s fastball could go from a liability to an asset on the mound, increasing his strikeout and ratio upside.

It's about more than the fastball for Bubic, who expanded his repertoire to include a slider this season. Bubic already had one solid secondary offering in his changeup, but his curveball left something to be desired. Opponents are hitting .280 off Bubic’s curveball all time, but the real kicker is the pathetic 5.9% swinging strike rate. That is a pitiful number for a breaking ball, and it’s no surprise that Bubic has struggled to maintain even a 20% strikeout rate during his career. Bubic and fantasy players are hoping that the slider picks up some of that slack.

So far, the numbers look good on Bubic’s slider. Batters haven’t yet mustered a hit off the pitch, and Bubic has a whopping 24.1% swinging strike rate with the slider, four times that of his curveball. Bubic’s slider comes in at 85.3 MPH, about 4 MPH harder than his curveball. The pitch has displayed above-average movement through two starts as well. Here’s an example from this start.

It’s not a “blow everyone away” pitch, but it has the potential to be an above-average breaking ball for Bubic, something his repertoire was sorely in need of prior to this season. The new slider coupled with his velocity spike is very promising, especially considering he still has a plus changeup at his disposal. If he can maintain these velocity gains and continue to improve his slider, he could be a solid pitcher, but that’s a pretty big “if”.

Verdict:

After 2.5 seasons of doing everything wrong, Bubic is doing everything right to start the 2023 season. His velocity increased by over a full MPH, he’s added a new pitch, and he’s drastically reduced his walks. If he can sustain these improvements—even to a smaller degree—he could be a really solid arm. If he can’t maintain any of this, well, he’s left-handed Zach Davies. At this point in the season, it can be a good strategy to jump on anyone showing positive signs of improvement, making Bubic the perfect early-season flier to take. Don’t spend more than 5% of your FAB on him, and with 90% league availability, you shouldn’t have to.

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