Are You For Real? Surprising Pitcher Starts from Week 19

Elliott Baas looks at starting pitchers who turned in surprising starts recently. These SP could emerge as waiver wire targets and sleepers, or simply mirages.

Welcome to Are You For Real?, a weekly column where we look at pitchers who turned in surprisingly good starts and try to determine whether they are the real deal. Things are starting to heat up in the baseball universe, with fewer than two months left in the regular season. With many contenders looking to make up for injuries with minor league promotions and veteran resurgences, and many losing clubs simply looking to see what they've got in their system, there are tons of interesting arms emerging on waivers despite being so deep into the season.

This time we're looking at three right-handers who put up strong outings over the last week. Dylan Bundy had his first good start in ages last week, blanking Texas over 6.1 innings. Logan Webb continued his quiet dominance with nine strikeouts against Milwaukee. Josiah Gray showed everyone what he's capable of with a 10 strikeout effort over just five innings against the Braves on Saturday.

Roster percentages quoted in this piece are based on Yahoo availability and are accurate as of 08/9/2021.

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Dylan Bundy, Los Angeles Angels

38% Rostered

2021 Stats (prior to this start): 74.1 IP, 6.66 ERA, 5.55 FIP, 2.6 K/BB ratio

08/05 @ TEX: 6.1 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 6 K

From a purely on the field perspective, Bundy may be the most disappointing starting pitcher of the 2021 season. Bundy has ostensibly been healthy all season, yet owned a sinister 6.66 ERA coming into this start. He lost his job as a starter towards around the end of June, only gaining it back recently due to necessity. It’s a mighty fall for a pitcher that looked like he’d finally put it together in 2020 and entered the year as a borderline top-30 starter. The 28-year-old is a free agent after this season and has plenty to play for over the final seven weeks, and Bundy certainly has fantasy players wondering whether he’s righted the ship or if he’ll continue to flounder despite this strong outing.

Once among the most prized pitching prospects in baseball, persistent arm troubles threw a wrench into his development and sapped the big velocity he was known for as a prospect. Bundy’s fastball now putters in at a measly 91 MPH, which puts him in the 18^th percentile in MLB for fastball velocity. Bundy has sort of made up for it with a nasty slider, and 80 MPH bender that has been known to rack up whiffs in the past. He rounds his repertoire out with a changeup and curveball, two questionable offerings that have performed up-and-down throughout the course of Bundy’s career. Altogether, he mostly lives and dies by the slider and the efficacy of either his changeup or curveball on any given day. This profiles him pretty similarly to two former teammates in Baltimore, one of whom is still a teammate in LA, Kevin Gausman and Alex Cobb. Both of those pitchers have one really, really good pitch, and both have found their best success when they’ve increased their fastball velocity and supported it with a passable tertiary offering. That is exactly what Bundy needs to do to pitch well down the stretch.

Let’s begin by looking at his pitch breakdown in this start. One thing I really don’t like seeing is that Bundy threw his fastball 70.2% of the time, a season high, and averaged just 89.9 MPH on the gun, a full MPH below his season average. This suggests that Bundy didn’t have a feel for his slider, which has historically meant disaster for him. The slider was his next most-used pitch after the fastball, but he only threw 13 of them, and only got one whiff. This alone throws a whole tub of cold water on any Dylan Bundy excitement that may have been brewing in the fantasy community. The Rangers have struck out 24.7% of the time against right-handers this season, and there lineup quality has only diminished throughout the course of the season. Only two batters in the Texas starting lineup have accumulated at least a year of MLB service time (Isaiah Kiner-Falefa and Jose Trevino), so the team Bundy faced was practically a Triple-A squad. He should have had them swinging out of their shoes at his slider, but instead he barely used it. He did have a 46% CSW rate with the pitch, so it was effective, but it’s not enough to move the needle. The spin rate and velocity were down on the slider as well as the fastball in this one, so he simply may not have had his best stuff on Thursday, which has unfortunately been true most of the season.

Another point of concern for Bundy is the vanishing of his changeup throughout the last month. As mentioned earlier, Bundy’s path to success is supporting his killer slider with a relatively high fastball velocity, but more importantly an effective third pitch. Last season that pitch was the changeup, which opponents hit just .220 against with a 16.6% swinging strike rate in 2020. Bundy hasn’t gotten the same results in 2021, as batters have crushed his changeup for a .314 AVG and .471 SLG. Why the drastic change in results? Part of the difference is that the pitch simply over-performed in 2020 and has under-performed in 2021. Bundy went from getting awesome results on balls-in-play to watching every grounder find the hole. The other reason seems to be that Bundy isn’t using it as much when he’s in trouble.

Last season Bundy threw his changeup 44% of the time against lefties when behind in the count, which was nearly as much as his fastball. This year, he’s throwing it just 30% of the time in the same situation. This suggests he either doesn’t trust the pitch to find the zone, or he doesn’t trust that the batter will swing. Bundy has always had drastic platoon splits against lefties, but last season he held them in check with a .295 wOBA against, thanks in large part to his changeup, but this season lefties have feasted on him for a .349 wOBA, which is in line with his career mark. Unfortunately, it looks like he’s abandoning the pitch, which doesn’t seem like the correct response, but again he may not have the feel for it or is following what his coaches are telling him. Without an effective changeup, there’s little hope for a Bundy resurgence.

One issue that has always plagued Bundy is the longball. He served up a whopping 41 bombs in 2018, which is tied for the seventh-most any pitcher has allowed in a season. Bundy is also the only pitcher to allow 40 or more home runs in fewer than 180 innings, as he only threw 171.1 that year. Thus is the perils of being an extreme flyball pitcher. Even so, many people thought that issue could be mitigated if Bundy got the heck out of Baltimore, and while that proved true in 2020 the Gopheritis is back with a vengeance this season. Bundy seems to have benefitted from a fortunate 8.2% HR/FB ratio last season, the only time he’d ever had a HR/FB ratio in the single digits. His home run rate isn’t just up due to bad luck and a few extra fly balls leaving the yard, it’s spiked back up for two reasons: 1: Bundy is using his sinker more often, a pitch with a career .303 AVG and .854 OPS against, and a .339 ISO against this season, and 2: because of how Bundy is locating his four-seam fastball.

Last season Bundy had a 64.6% zone rate with his four-seam fastball, which was by far the highest of his career, but this year it’s back down to 59.8%. He’s been attempting to throw his fastball higher, which can be an effective tactic to generate whiffs on an otherwise unremarkable pitch, but it also has the consequence of potentially allowing more fly balls and home runs. Here is a comparison of Bundy’s fastball location in 2020 (top) and 2021 (bottom).

He is really afraid of throwing it down, and it’s shown in the numbers, as opponents have a .248 ISO off his four-seamer this year. Throwing the high fastball has allowed plenty of other pitchers maximize the results on an otherwise weak fastball, such as J.A. Happ of St. Louis, who extended his career by probably 4-5 years by doing this. However, Bundy's had such problems with home runs that this route will likely prove ineffective for him in the long run, and he'd be better off reverting to previous fastball usage if he's capable of doing so.

Verdict:

It looks like Bundy had a fortunate outing against one of the weakest lineups in baseball. Unfortunately, his issues don’t appear to be fixable mid-season, and quite frankly I’d be concerned about his future as a starter. I’m not sure how long he’ll last in the majors tossing the junk he’s currently throwing. Unless he can lean more heavily on his slider and changeup, and regain some fastball velocity and command, Bundy may be toast. 2020 was the year everything broke right for Dylan Bundy, but 2021 appears to be the year everything is breaking wrong for him. There’s no way he can be trusted in a fantasy lineup, and the biggest takeaway I got from this outing was that you can stream almost anyone against the Texas Rangers.

Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants

48% Rostered

2021 Stats (prior to this start): 73 IP, 3.33 ERA, 3.35 FIP, 3.2 K/BB ratio

08/06 @ MIL: 6 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 9 K

While much of the attention and praise for the Giants’ success has been focused on the resurgence of veterans, Webb is one of the few younger players that has helped propel San Francisco into baseball’s biggest surprise team. The 24-year-old is on his third chance in San Fran’s rotation, and the third time appears to be the charm for Webb, who owns a stellar 3.19 ERA on the season after posting ERAs north of five in 2019 and 2020. Even with his great performance, many remain skeptical of Webb’s long-term sustainability. Is he, like many Giants, playing over his head, or is there something here with Webb?

Originally a fourth-round pick out of Rocklin High School in California in 2014, Webb never made waves on any overall prospect lists, but was seen as one of the better arms in a relatively weak San Francisco minor league system. Webb primarily works with a four-pitch mix, consisting of a sinker, four-seam fastball, slider, and changeup. His sinker-heavy approach makes Webb something of an outlier in the modern game, as many organizations are coaching their prospects away from sinkers in favor of more four-seam and breaking ball usage. The Giants have let Webb lean on his most reliable offering, which has paid dividends for the young righty.

Webb’s sinker usage has risen drastically in 2021, as he’s throwing the pitch 33.7% of the time, nearly triple his usage last season. The sinker has been a godsend for Webb, as opponents have managed just a .273 AVG against the pitch, but more importantly have a .131 ISO and 68.6% groundball rate off Webb’s sinker. The launch angle against Webb’s sinker is an astonishing -7-degrees, meaning batters are just sending this thing straight into the earth every time they make contact. This puts Webb in elite territory, with only the groundball king Framber Valdez boasting a lower launch angle against (Valdez’s average launch angle against is -5.3-degrees, which is patently absurd). Valdez is the game’s premier sinkerballer at the moment, and while it would be easy to call Webb a budget version of Valdez, Webb has shown some skills which Valdez does not possess.

First, Webb has showcased much better control than Valdez throughout his MLB career, as Webb has never posted a walk rate above 10%, while Valdez has posted a walk rate of 10% or higher in three of his four seasons. Second, Webb has been able to limit hard contact, while balls-in-play against Valdez have been pulverized over the course of his career. Exit velocity matters less when the pitcher is so good at inducing groundballs, but it is more forgiving for the pitcher when balls are in play, hence Valdez’s career 20% HR/FB ratio. Based on his groundball rate and minor league history, I would anticipate Webb to excel in power suppression, a skill that will only be aided by his home ballpark in San Francisco. It’s only been 79 innings this season for Webb, so it’s too early to declare a full buy-in to his groundball skills, but he did have an 80% groundball rate with his sinker in 2020 as well, though he was using it just 16.5% of the time. This looks like a repeatable skill over time, especially if Webb keeps his sinker usage high, and pitches off the sinker instead of his four-seamer.

Groundball skills are good to have, but they certainly aren’t sexy. You’ll never see GIFs circulating Twitter of a pitcher inducing groundballs. We crave strikeouts, and Webb delivered them in this start, fanning nine Brewers over six innings. It was his second-highest strikeout total of the year, as Webb struck out 10 Rangers back on May 11, but as we saw in our Dylan Bundy breakdown, any pitching accomplishment against the 2021 Rangers should be taken with a whole heap of salt. Webb  hadn’t been getting many strikeouts ahead of this start, as he hadn’t topped five Ks since May 29 prior to Friday. Of course, strikeouts can be hugely beneficial in fantasy, so we need to know whether he can deliver these going forward.

The source of Webb’s strikeouts in this start was his slider, a pitch that notched him eight of his 13 whiffs on Friday. With a 44.6% whiff rate on the year, Webb’s slider stands alone as his only strikeout weapon. It’s an 82 MPH offering that’s notable mostly for its spin, averaging 2693 RPM this season. Here’s a few examples of the pitch from this start.

It also has a bit of loopiness that makes the pitch profile as more of a slurve than a true slider, which fits Webb’s sinker and groundball-first pitching style. Opposing batters have really struggled to hit this pitch as well, posting a .140 AVG and .256 SLG against Webb’s slider thus far. Avisail Garcia did take a slider deep in this start, but quite honestly it wasn’t a terrible pitch from Webb, rather an impressive swing from Garcia that took advantage of a slider that barely eeked its way into the zone. While not an elite strikeout pitcher, Webb’s slider has the ability to generate whiffs at an above average rate and should keep him respectable in the strikeout department. Pair that with an elite groundball rate, and we’ve got a successful combination for an MLB starter.

Verdict:

It would be hard to expect such an inexperienced pitcher to sustain a low-threes ERA over the long haul, but Webb has displayed legitimate skills and growth as a starter this season. He deserves an add in 12-team leagues or deeper, and even consideration for 10-teamers. It’ll be interesting to see how much hype around Webb grows for 2022, especially if he finishes strong. He’s not a bad dynasty bet going forward as well, in addition to being a redraft asset for 2021.

Josiah Gray, Washington Nationals

33% Rostered

2021 Stats (prior to this start): 13 IP, 4.85 ERA, 7.48 FIP, 2.1 K/BB ratio

08/07 @ ATL: 5 IP, 4 H, 2 R (1 ER), 2 BB, 10 K

There was plenty of excitement around Gray when he was promoted by the Dodgers shortly after the All-Star break, but that excitement dissipated after he served up three home runs in four innings during his first major league start. Gray’s name was back in the headlines shortly after however, as he was used as a key trade piece in the Dodgers’ efforts to acquire Max Scherzer and Trea Turner from Washington. While there may have been some disappointment in Gray no longer having the might of arguably the best-run organization in baseball supporting him, a move to Washington does afford him something he probably wouldn’t have gotten in LA, which is the chance to iron out his problems in the majors. Los Angeles is in a tight race, while the fading Nationals are in full spaghetti-at-the-wall mode, throwing everyone and everything to see what sticks and what they have for 2022. Gray should get the chance to work as a starter for the remainder of 2021, and he did not disappoint on Saturday, striking out 10 Braves over five innings in a dominant performance. Gray had incredible strikeout numbers in the minors, but can the youngster keep it up in the majors?

Originally a second-round pick by the Reds back in 2018, Gray was acquired by the Dodgers in the now laughably lopsided Yasiel Puig trade a few years ago. Gray blossomed in the Dodgers’ system, and came into the year ranked as MLB pipeline’s 40^th best prospect in all of baseball. Gray uses a four-pitch mix, consisting of a four-seam fastball, slider, curveball, and the occasional changeup. Gray is known for his fastball velocity, averaging around 95 MPH on the gun with his fastball. He pairs that heat with two plus breaking balls in his slider and curveball, a combination that allowed him to post a monster 38.6% strikeout rate at Triple-A prior to his promotion.

Usually, when a pitcher has two plus breaking balls one stands clearly above the other as their best pitch, but when it comes to Gray, both his slider and curveball look equally dominant. His curveball was the star attraction in this start, however, as Gray earned 11 of his 20 (20!) whiffs with it in this outing. There were 13 swings against his curveball, and 11 of those batters swung right through it for an obscene 85% whiff rate. Gray’s curveball averages 83-84 MPH and has roughly average spin at 2446 RPM.  Where the curveball really shines is break, as the pitch has showcased horizontal break significantly above the league average through four starts. Here are a few examples from this start.

It’s not that hard to get Adam Duvall and Joc Pederson to swing-and-miss, but the pitch is impressive nonetheless. It’s a harder curveball, and with its sharp break resembles more of a slurve than a traditional curveball, which should help Gray generate above average whiffs with the pitch. Through four starts batters have managed just a .200 AVG with a .350 SLG and 61.5% whiff rate against Gray’s curveball, and with a meager 81.4 MPH average exit velocity those numbers could improve over time should the hard contact and whiff numbers hold.

If the curveball were Gray’s only good pitch there’d be enough to generate interest, but he also possesses a plus slider that can also serve a strikeout pitch. By comparison to his curveball, Gray’s slider numbers look almost pedestrian, but they have been strong in their own right. Batters have hit just .222 against Gray’s slider thus far, along with a .222 SLG and 46.4% whiff rate. Gray’s slider was his more renowned breaking ball as a prospect, with many predicting it to serve as a his primarily strikeout pitch and his curveball to be more complementary. That may still be the case as Gray’s career progresses, and the pitch has the makings of a strikeout offering. A harder, sharper breaking ball compared to his curveball, Gray’s slider should absolutely confound right-handed batters especially. It’s only been four starts, but it’s hard to not be excited about how well Gray’s slider and curveball have performed thus far, especially when it comes to generating whiffs. Should he be able to maintain swinging strike rates close to what he’s done thus far, Gray’s strong minor league strikeout rates should carry over to the majors.

The biggest issue we’ve seen from Gray in his short MLB career has been home runs, as he’s allowed six bombs in four starts. It’s the reason why he sports an ugly 6.22 FIP despite averaging 12.5 K/9. The good news for fantasy owners who may have added Gray is that Gray never really had these issues in the minors. He only allowed seven home runs total throughout his minor league career, good for a 0.3 HR/9 rate over 198 innings. Gray did display flyball tendencies in the minor leagues, with flyball rates hovering between 44-50% during any given season, and the flyballs have ramped up thus far in the majors with a 59.5% flyball rate. While Gray has allowed plenty of flyballs, he has also limited hard contact, with an 87.8 MPH average exit velocity against. It’s too small of a sample to derive definitive conclusions from batted ball numbers, but based on his minor league track record and ability to limit hard contact I would expect his home run rate to normalize to some degree, although it will undoubtedly be higher than his minor league rate.

Verdict:

There is a lot to like about Josiah Gray’s profile, and he is worth adding in all but the shallowest of leagues. His 2021 upside may be capped by Washington capping his innings and pitch count carefully. They have every reason to take it easy with Gray, considering they aren’t winning anything this season and traded two franchise cornerstones to get him, but it does throw into question how useful he can be in leagues that reward volume and quality starts. Still, the raw talent is evident, and Gray has strikeout upside we rarely see on waivers. Furthermore, Gray has only thrown 33.2 innings between the majors and minors this season, so the Nationals surely want to get him some volume to prepare him for 2022. Gray has a bright future in the majors, and this start was hopefully a sign of things to come for the young right-hander.

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