Are You For Real? Surprising Pitcher Starts from Week 15

Elliott Baas looks at starting pitchers who turned in surprising starts recently. These SP could emerge as waiver wire targets and sleepers, or simply mirages.

Welcome to Are You For Real?, a weekly column where we look at pitchers who turned in surprisingly good starts and try to determine whether they are the real deal. With all eyes glued to Colorado, we can catch our opponents napping during the All-Star break and hopefully make some sneaky adds while no one else is paying much attention.

This week we're looking at two youngsters and an older pitcher with limited major league experience, but plenty of foreign experience under his belt. We're breaking down Triston McKenzie's absolutely dominant performance against the Royals on Friday, along with Kwang Hyun Kim shutting down the Cubs on Saturday, and a successful foray into the rotation for Jose Suarez of the Angels on Sunday.

Roster percentages quoted in this piece are based on Yahoo availability and are accurate as of 7/12/2021.

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Triston McKenzie, Cleveland Indians

33% Rostered

2021 Stats (prior to this start): 42.1 IP, 6.38 ERA, 5.61 FIP, 1.5 K/BB ratio

7/09 vs. KC: 7 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 9 K

McKenzie was back with a bang on Friday, allowing just one hit over seven innings while dicing up the Royals’ lineup for nine strikeouts. Perhaps most important for McKenzie was allowing just one free pass, as it was the first time all season that McKenzie walked fewer than two batters in an outing. Walks have plagued McKenzie all season as he currently owns a stomach-churning 18.9% walk rate on the year. Even with his relatively newfound struggles to find the strikezone, McKenzie has flashed some pretty good stuff at certain points in his young career and he has an opportunity to be a big second half contributor. Let’s dive into what has ailed McKenzie thus far, and whether this start was truly a step forward or if we can expect these trends to continue for the prized right-handed prospect.

After a strong showing in 2020 (3.24 ERA in 33.1 innings), McKenzie raised his profile and entered the season as Cleveland’s top pitching prospect and a top-100 overall prospect by many expert rankings. McKenzie has a well-rounded arsenal consisting of a four-seam fastball, curveball, slider, and changeup. With his fastball velocity sitting around 91-92 MPH McKenzie was never touted for his heater, but made his name on the strength of his two breaking balls, the slider and the curveball. Ironically, one of his best skills as a prospect was his command, and McKenzie’s BB/9 never exceeded 2.92 at any level prior to 2021. This is a common trait among Cleveland pitching prospects, as the organization values control and command over blow away stuff. It’s the same archetype that has made Shane Bieber, Aaron Civale, and Zach Plesac find success at the major league level. Is McKenzie the next Shane Bieber? Probably not, but reaching the heights of Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac is certainly possible for him. In fact, McKenzie has even bigger strikeout upside than either of those two pitchers, making his fantasy potential all the more intriguing.

For most of the season, McKenzie has looked outright broken on the mound. Whenever a pitcher goes through something like this I immediately look at two things: his pitch mix and his fastball velocity. The most noticeable change for McKenzie is in that fastball velocity, which has dropped over one MPH this season compared to 2020, going from 92.8 MPH in 2020 to 91.6 MPH in 2021, something which is quite strange for a 23-year-old supposedly healthy pitcher. McKenzie has had his share of injury struggles in the minor leagues and didn’t pitch at all in 2019 as a result, but there haven’t been an reported injuries this season. The reason for it was either an injury we didn’t know about or a mechanical issue he needed to correct. The good news is that McKenzie’s fastball velocity was way up in this most recent start, as he averaged 93.3 MPH and maxed out at 95.6. This additional velocity can only help McKenzie get back on the right track, and he’s going to need it because the most significant shift in his pitch mix has been towards the fastball and away from his secondary offerings.

McKenzie has thrown his fastball 63% of the time this season, which is a 10% increase from 2020. He threw the pitch 64% of the time in his most recent start, so it’s not as if McKenzie reverted to 2020 usage or made significant shifts during his outing against Kansas City. It’s kind of a strange shift for him to make since the fastball was never his strength and his velocity has been down this season. McKenzie hasn’t just been throwing it more often, but he’s changed his approach with the pitch. Below is a heatmap of McKenzie’s 2020 fastball location (top) compared to 2021 fastball location (bottom).

He is pounding the fastball in high, especially above the zone. This is something commonly done by older pitchers or bad fastball pitchers to try and make up for their shortcomings and generate whiffs with the heater. This location tells me that McKenzie no longer trusts his diminished fastball, and while batters are still hitting just .186 against his four-seamer this season, this trend is likely one the culprits behind his spike in walk rate. When a pitcher falls behind in the count he needs to work his way back by throwing a fastball, but McKenzie doesn’t trust his fastball in the zone, so he throws it above the zone and hitters aren’t biting. This is pretty common pitch sequencing for a big league pitcher, and that’s especially true for the ultra-predictable Triston McKenzie, who throws a fastball 67% of the time he’s behind in the count against righties and 81% of the time against lefties. Variety is the spice of life, Triston, and using a more varied pitch sequence could help cut down on the walks.

Pitchers throw their fastball when behind because it’s the easiest pitch to throw for a strike. However, the zone rate on McKenzie’s fastball is down 9% this season compared to 2020, and overall his zone rate is down 6.6%. In fact, McKenzie has the lowest zone rate among all pitchers (min. 40 IP), which is heresy in the Cleveland organization. The good news is that McKenzie not only improved his fastball velocity in this start, but his zone rate reverted to 57.4%, which is around his 2020 levels. Here is a fastball heatmap from just this start.

He’s still attacking up, but he also had the confidence and ability to throw the pitch in the zone. If McKenzie has corrected whatever was hampering his fastball velocity and command, we could see shades of the flashy young prospect who made a splash last year.

The fastball improvements are obviously a step in the right direction, but something else I’d like to see from McKenzie is more breaking ball usage. Even with his struggles, McKenzie has a monster 32.1% strikeout rate this season and it’s thanks to his breaking balls. Opponents are hitting just .074 against his slider with a 20.1% swinging strike rate and hitting .120 with a 17.6% swinging strike rate against his curveball. It would be hard to imagine him raising his strikeout rate any higher, as a 32.1% strikeout rate is already in elite territory. Still, even if it doesn’t improve his strikeout rate, those pitches should help him get outs, which will help keep the pressure off his fastball.

Verdict:

McKenzie has loads of talent, and this start against the Royals showcased exactly what he can do when firing on all cylinders. Fantasy players should be very interested in McKenzie for the second half. Starting pitchers with 30% strikeout rates are almost always fantasy studs. In fact, McKenzie’s current 5.72 ERA is the highest among pitchers with a >30% strikeout rate by over two runs. The next highest is Shohei Ohtani with a 3.49 ERA, who has a bit of a walk problem himself. McKenzie could be a second half stud, and he’s out there in nearly 70% of leagues. He’s certainly worth an add in 12-team leagues or deeper.

Kwang Hyun Kim, St. Louis Cardinals

36% Rostered

2021 Stats (prior to this start): 66.1 IP, 3.39 ERA, 3.99 FIP, 2.2 K/BB ratio

7/10 @ CHC: 6 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 7 K

Kim cruised into the All-Star break with six shutout inings on Saturday against the Cubs and has allowed just one earned run combined over his last three starts (18 innings). With his season ERA at 3.11 following this start, a strong start from Kim shouldn’t be surprising, but with a roster rate under 40%, it appears that most fantasy players aren’t buying into Kim’s performance. Overall, Kim owns a 2.59 ERA in 111.1 major league innings, so our collective skepticism about Kim’s legitimacy needs to be explored. Is Kim falling between the cracks or has the fantasy community’s apprehension been the correct approach?

Before coming to the majors, Kim was a KBO stand out, going 136-77 with a 3.27 ERA in 12 seasons in Korea. St. Louis, perhaps hoping to recapture some of the Miles Mikolas magic from a few years ago, gave Kim a two year, eight-million-dollar deal in December 2019, a contract that looks like a bargain for the Cardinals after the fact. Kim uses a four pitch mix on the mound, throwing a four-seam fastball, slider, curveball, and split-finger changeup. Kim isn’t exactly a “stuff” guy, as his fastball putters in at just 89 MPH and his slow curve averages 69.8 MPH. His most commonly used breaking ball is his slider, which Kim has thrown 35.1% of the time this season. Between that and his 43.5% fastball usage, Kim has leaned heavily on two offerings that don’t grade all that well from a measurables standpoint. A peek below the surface makes it hard to find solid reasoning for his success thus far.

As previously mentioned, Kim’s most used breaking ball is his slider. That’s for good reason, as it’s the best pitch Kim has to offer. Opponents are hitting just .205 against the pitch this season, along with a .295 SLG and 15.3% swinging strike rate. It doesn’t jump off the page, as the pitch has so-so movement and spin and an underwhelming whiff rate for a breaking ball. Here are a few examples of the pitch in action.

It’s not a bad pitch by any means, but it lacks the sharp movement to be a standout offering, especially in the strikeout department. Kim gets value out of the pitch by inducing weak contact, which is why it has a 53.4% zone rate. That is unusually high for a slider and the pitch Kim most often throws in the strike zone. Pitchers with great sliders can often have zone rates below 40%, so the fact that Kim has such a high slider zone rate and throws it more in the zone than his fastball indicates that he’s not going for strikeouts, but to induce weak contact.

Kim has done a decent job of getting that weak contact, with an average exit velocity of 87.8 MPH against his slider and a 25.9% infield flyball rate. The long term sustainability of this approach is dubious, as Kim has a 13-degree average launch angle against the slider this season and had a 33% line drive rate against his slider in 2020. Kim does seem to have a knack for generating favorable batted balls, but he is still beholden to the whims of balls in play at a level higher than desirable for a fantasy viable pitcher. Sure, he’s gotten favorable bounces recently and has somehow earned himself a .258 career BABIP, but it’s still only been 111.1 innings of major league ball, a drop in the bucket by sample size standards.

When a pitcher is unable to generate strikeouts at a palatable rate he must make up for it with another exceptional skill, but unfortunately Kim isn’t presenting one. His 47.6% groundball rate is slightly above the league average, but not nearly good enough to be considered exceptional. He also doesn’t provide much depth, as he is averaging under five innings per start in the first half. If a pitcher can’t blow us away with strikeouts, the least he could do is give us some innings and wins or quality starts, but Kim seems to have a pretty short leash with Mike Shildt. He has gone seven and six innings in his most recent two starts respectively, so perhaps tides are changing. For now he’s not someone we can rely on to chew up innings.

Kim’s 8% walk rate over his first two years is a bit high for a pitcher so reliant on balls-in-play. It’s hard to sustain success when walking so many hitters and relying on fortunate BABIP luck. Pitchers like this tend to suffer from death by a thousand papercuts, as on any given night the baserunners can keep piling up. He’s awfully fortunately to have a career 77.1% strand rate this season, which has helped limit the damage from his 1.26 WHIP and 2.36 K/BB ratio. Kim really struggled with walks at the early part of his career in the KBO, but over his last two seasons managed to keep his walk rate around 5%. Perhaps Kim is still adjusting to the new league and how to navigate the strike zone, and if he can recapture the control he had towards the end of his time in Korea, there will be more to get excited about with Kim.

One thing he has done exceptionally well in the majors is limit the longball. Kim has served up just nine homers over his first two seasons, good for a 0.73 HR/9. He hasn’t allowed a home run since June 20, and his average flyball distance of 155 feet puts him well above league average for starting pitchers. One of his strengths this season has been inducing infield fly balls at a 15.3% clip, which are essentially automatic outs as infield popups are almost always caught. His 4.46 xFIP may be unsightly to fantasy players scouting Kim, but his ability to induce weak fly balls and prevent home runs means he should always have an above average HR/FB ratio. Since xFIP is merely FIP with HR/FB normalized to league average, Kim will be the type of pitcher who routinely outperforms this metric.

Verdict:

For those hoping we’d uncover the secret of how Kim’s found such wonderful success in the majors despite underwhelming stuff and poor peripherals, I’m afraid the answer mostly boils down to just plain good luck. Kim is good at limiting the long balls and inducing weak contact, but doesn’t really excel in the important fantasy categories such as wins, strikeouts, innings pitched, or WHIP. He's had enough success that Kim is trustworthy against soft opponents and favorable situations, but he's not someone you should roll out every time he starts.

Jose Suarez, Los Angeles Angels

15% Rostered

2021 Stats (prior to this start): 30.1 IP, 2.37 ERA, 4.25 FIP, 2.2 K/BB ratio (bullpen)

7/11 @ SEA: 5 IP, 3 H, 1 R (0 ER), 2 BB, 4 K

Suarez had a lot of success as a long reliever/piggyback pitcher for the Angels, and Los Angeles finally decided to expand his role and put him in the starting rotation. That decision looked awfully smart on Sunday as Suarez let just one unearned run cross the plate over five innings in Seattle. With the struggles of Griffin Canning, Dylan Bundy, and Jose Quintana leaving a big fat hole in their rotation, the Angels could really use Suarez to help stabilize the back end of their rotation, much like the emergence of Patrick Sandoval and resurgence of Alex Cobb has done. Suarez has had a rocky start to his MLB career, but he’s still just 23 years old and may be the solution the Angels, and deeper league fantasy players, need going into the second half.

Signing as a fresh faced 17-year-old out of Venezuela back in 2014, Suarez has plenty of professional experience for someone his age. A strong minor league season in 2018 gave Suarez some top-100 prospect buzz, though he was typically in the lower half of most experts’ top-100 lists, if he made it at all. Suarez works primarily with three pitches: a four-seam fastball, a changeup, and curveball. He does throw the occasional sinker or slider, but he throws his three primary pitches 96% of the time. Suarez has decent velocity for a lefty, averaging 93 MPH with his heater, but his best pitch has been his changeup, which he actually used more than the fastball in this start against Seattle.

Suarez’s changeup has absolutely shut down opposing hitters this season, with batters hitting just .111 with a .156 SLG and .148 wOBA on the year. He also has a 17.5% swinging strike rate with the pitch and earned five of his seven whiffs with it in this start. The pitch has exceptionally little rotation with a 1590 average RPM, and has above average movement for a changeup, acting more as a true breaking ball instead of a traditional changeup. Pitchers who thrive off changeups generally show strong reverse platoon splits, which has been true for Suarez this season. Right-handers have a .146 AVG and .221 wOBA against Suarez, while lefties have crushed him for a .319 AVG and .401 wOBA. Suarez has shown apprehension in using his curveball against lefties, and it’s normal for pitchers to forgo throwing a changeup against same-handed hitters. However, it does create problems when your best pitch is a changeup. Suarez uses his curveball against lefties, but with a .297 AVG and .401 wOBA against the curveball all time, it’s not nearly as effective as the changeup.

Suarez’s struggles don’t end with the changeup either, as opponents have crushed his fastball for a .274 AVG and .532 SLG this season along with a 90.7 MPH average exit velocity. Even though Suarez has decent velocity with his fastball, its effectiveness is hindered by a mediocre spin rate of 2204 average RPM. He doesn’t throw hard enough to overcome that, especially given the poor movement of his four-seamer. Suarez has been on the receiving end of some good fortune with the pitch, as his .293 xBA suggests he’s gotten some lucky hops with it thus far. He’s been rather lucky from all aspects of the game, as Suarez has a .247 BABIP against and a 90.7% strand rate. That’s a big reason for the two-run gap between his actual 2.04 ERA and his 4.04 FIP on the year.

Verdict:

Suarez has been pretty darn awful prior to 2021, with a career 7.99 ERA, 6.95 FIP, and 2.6 HR/9 in 83.1 IP. Admittedly, it’s a small sample size, but his even smaller sample size of 35.1 effective innings doesn’t outweigh the bad quite yet. I’d be more inclined to buy a turnaround if Suarez were doing anything different, but he’s using the same pitch sequencing and has the same velocity and movement metrics this season as in seasons past. He’s still young and has time to develop, but he isn’t there yet, and given how big the downside is, the risk isn’t worth the potential of 4-5 good innings right now. I would forgo using Suarez unless you're desperate and he faces a weak lineup, specifically a righty-heavy lineup that favors his style.

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