Are You For Real? Surprising Pitcher Starts from Week 11

Elliott Baas looks at starting pitchers who turned in surprising starts recently. These SP could emerge as waiver wire targets and sleepers for Week 11, or simply mirages.

Welcome back to "Are You For Real?", a weekly column where we take starting pitchers who had surprisingly good starts over the past week and put them under the microscope to determine whether they're legit or just smoke and mirrors.

This week we're keeping things central, as we'll be taking a look at three pitchers in the central divisions who've been pitching well as of late. We'll be diving deep into Pittsburgh's Mitch Keller, while also heading to the Windy City to look at Keegan Thompson's strong start on the north side, and Johnny Cueto pitching well on the south side.

Roster percentages are taken from Yahoo and are accurate as of 6/20/22.

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Mitch Keller, Pittsburgh Pirates – 6% Rostered

2022 Stats (before this start): 55 IP, 5.07 ERA, 4.29 FIP, 9.4 K-BB%
6/19 vs. SF: 6 IP, 3 H, 2 R (1 ER), 3 BB, 4 K

Fantasy managers have been playing whack-a-mole with Mitch Keller throughout his short, vexatious career. The former top prospect has floundered in the big leagues, as evidenced by his 5.68 career ERA, but signs of promise have often shone through with Keller, even at his worst. He’s in the midst of a strong run right now, as Keller has a 2.42 ERA over his last four starts including this most recent outing against San Francisco. Has Keller finally figured things out, or is this yet another false alarm?

Originally a second-round pick out of high school in Iowa, Keller rapidly ascended the prospect ranks, finding himself not only atop Pittsburgh’s prospect lists but near the top of leaguewide prospect rankings as well. Many viewed Keller as the top pitching prospect in the game in the mid-2010s thanks to a wicked fastball-slider combination and plus command. Altogether, Keller works with a five-pitch mix consisting of a four-seam fastball, sinker, changeup, slider, and curveball. The sinker is a new pitch for Keller as he first started throwing it on May 25 in a game against the Rockies. That game was the precursor to Keller’s hot streak, so the sinker may indeed be the catalyst behind Keller’s newfound success.

When it comes to young pitchers with heaps of raw talent who’ve struggled to find success on the mound, rarely would we prescribe a sinker as the remedy to their woes. Sinker usage is decreasing across the game, and not many young pitchers come up throwing sinkers anymore. That’s made Keller’s recent shift towards sinker usage a bit perplexing, but it’s hard to argue with the results. Opponents are hitting just .205 off Keller’s sinker, along with a .282 SLG and 85.3 MPH average exit velocity. This performance is a welcome change for Keller, who is used to seeing his fastball get hammered by opposing hitters to the tune of a .938 OPS off Keller’s four-seam fastball in his career.

What makes the sinker different? Movement and location. Keller’s mid-90s velocity always impressed scouts, though his four-seamer lacked movement and came across flat. That’s not the case with his sinker, which has four extra inches of drop compared to the four-seamer. He also takes a much different approach with the pitch, keeping the ball down in the lower half of the strike zone to induce groundballs, while he often pitches his four-seamer up to attempt to induce whiffs. Here is a heatmap comparison of Keller’s career four-seam usage and sinker usage.

Throwing high four-seamers aligns with conventional pitching philosophy as most modern organizations preach high fastballs. For many pitchers, this is the most effective approach to take for strikeouts and run prevention, but for Keller, this clearly wasn’t working. With his new, sinker-heavy approach Keller is focused less on whiffs and more on groundballs, and he has a 52.4% groundball rate over his last four starts, nearly 10% higher than his career groundball rate.

This change is likely a step in the right direction for Keller, but outside of a shift towards the sinker, there isn’t much to like in this profile. Even during his hot streak, Keller has an ugly 1.6 K/BB ratio and has been coasting off a  .242 BABIP and 79.7% LOB rate. Opponents are hitting just .205 off the sinker, but have a .299 xBA and .359 xwOBA. He had a pitiful seven whiffs in this game and had a swinging strike rate below 8% in three of his last four outings. Even if the sinker represents the turning of a new leaf for Keller, a lot of the same problems with poor control and underwhelming secondary offerings exist, and there haven’t been enough improvements to overcome the downsides.

Verdict:

Fantasy managers have always been on the lookout for post-hype sleepers, and as a former top prospect, Keller seems like the perfect candidate. His new sinker has gotten more favorable contact and improved his groundball rate, no doubt helping Keller during one of the best stretches of his career. However, the positives end with the sinker, and for the most part, Keller seems to be benefitting from good BABIP luck. He still has poor control and is incapable of putting up respectable strikeout rates. Pair those warts with his tenuous grasp on a rotation spot for one of baseball’s worst clubs, and there’s not a whole lot to like here. Save your FAB and pass on Keller this time around.

Johnny Cueto, Chicago White Sox – 16% Rostered

2022 Stats (prior to this start): 35.2 IP, 3.53 ERA, 3.86 FIP, 12.9% K-BB%
6/18 vs. CWS: 7 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 5 K

Cueto looked back to old form on Saturday, shutting down the potent Houston offense for seven scoreless innings en route to his first victory of the season. It was Cueto’s best start of 2022, and he lowered his overall ERA to a sparkling 2.95 following this game. With so much uncertainty on the waiver wire, it’s can be comforting to see a familiar face staring back at you when it’s time to make roster decisions. Can the 36-year-old former ace recapture any semblance of past success, or should fantasy managers expect more of what we’ve seen from Cueto over the past couple of seasons, marred with injuries and inconsistencies?

Cueto wasn’t supposed to play a big role in Chicago’s rotation at all this season, but the struggles of Dallas Kuechel and Vince Velasquez have opened the door for the veteran, and he’s seized the opportunity. Though he’s been around for a long time, Cueto still uses the same, deep six-pitch repertoire consisting of a four-seamer, sinker, changeup, slider, and an occasional curveball. His pitch sequencing has remained mostly the same as well, with the only somewhat notable change being a shift towards sinker usage in favor of the four-seam fastball this season.

While never possessing the best raw stuff, Cueto made a name for himself by expertly mixing in all six pitches and routinely shifting his delivery in subtle ways to maximize deception and get the absolute most out of his pitches. That’s mostly been the case for Cueto thus far, as none of his pitches measure up all that well in terms of movement or velocity. His fastball velocity is still hanging around the low 90s at 91.5 MPH, and while it’s impressive that Cueto has not lost too much velocity over such a long career, his velocity is still below average and only becoming more of a detriment as leaguewide fastball velocity rises. It was a lot easier to get away with a low 90s fastball ten years ago when Cueto was at his peak than it is today, and Cueto was at least throwing 92-93 MPH back then.

The increase in sinker usage has done one thing for Cueto, and that’s improve his groundball rate. Cueto currently has a 44% groundball rate, which is his highest mark since 2016 (min. 40 innings). Cueto was an exceptional groundball pitcher during his prime and especially excelled at keeping the ball in the yard, which was no small feat in Cincinnati. The launch angle/juiced ball era was not kind to Cueto, who allowed 1.3 HR/9 between 2017-2021 after posting a career 0.9 HR/9 rate before 2017. With home run trends shifting downwards this season and Cueto’s increased sinker usage, home run suppression may be a returning skill for Cueto. He’s only given up 0.84 HR/9 thus far, and his .391 xSLG is his lowest since 2016. The sample size is far too early to lay down definitive conclusions, but all signs point to an improvement in the power and home run departments for Cueto.

The issue for Cueto in terms of fantasy value lies ultimately in his ceiling, as Cueto doesn’t offer much that makes a fantasy manager excited to roster or use him. His strikeout rate is a meager 19.4%, and his swinging strike rate is a paltry 8.4%. He throws all kinds of slider and cutter variations with unique deliveries, but the reason behind all this deception is the lack of substance. Cueto’s slider and cutter both measure below average in terms of movement and results, and both are incapable of producing even respectable strikeout numbers. Pair the so-so breaking balls with a .264 BABIP and 77.8% LOB rate, and Cueto’s 2.95 ERA looks a lot more suspect. If he can keep his walk rate and home run rates down, a sub-4 ERA might be possible for Cueto, but you won’t be getting many strikeouts or wins to go along with the ratios. Cueto is best utilized as a disposable spot starter. Add him as needed and cut him without a second thought.

Verdict:

No, the Johnny Cueto of old isn’t back and he likely never will be. Still, things could be a lot worse for a 36-year-old who came into the season on a minor league deal. An increase in sinker usage and an overall decrease in leaguewide power has Cueto back to suppressing home runs and inducing groundballs. His 6.5% walk rate is also quite impressive and reminiscent of past glory days. The overall upside is quite low as Cueto’s stuff lacks the punch to consistently rack up strikeouts. He is the epitome of a throwaway veteran streamer. Feel free to add and use him against weak lineups or in two start weeks, but don’t hesitate to let him go if something better comes along.

Keegan Thompson, Chicago Cubs – 28% Rostered

2022 Stats (before this start): 49 IP, 3.67 ERA, 4.60 FIP, 10.4% K-BB%
6/17 vs. ATL: 6 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 9 K

Thompson was dominant on Friday, shutting down the Braves over six scoreless while fanning nine to put an end to Atlanta’s 14-game winning streak. The start was a welcome shift in the right direction for Thompson, who had been hammered for 12 runs (10 earned) over his last two starts combined, a total of just 3.2 innings. A third straight poor start might’ve spelled the end for Thompson’s rotation spot, but the 27-year-old righty bought himself a lot of leeway with this outing. He now has a 3.27 ERA on the year, and with a trio of starters (Wade Miley, Marcus Stroman, Drew Smyly) all on the injured list, Thompson should have some time to solidify his role as a starter with continued strong performances. Can the unheralded hurler hang on, or is he just keeping the seat warm for the established veterans?

Originally a third-round pick out of Auburn University, Thompson was never much of a prospect, even in Chicago’s system. In 2021 Eric Logenhagen of Fangraphs ranked him 42^nd in the Cubs’ minor league system, an especially damning rank considering Thompson was 26 years old at the time the list was made and had already seen major league action. Thompson throws a whopping six pitches (four-seamer, sinker, cutter, slider, changeup, and curveball), but primarily relies on three, which are the four-seam fastball, cutter, and curveball. He has thrown those pitches a combined 88.3% of the time this season, and they made up the majority of his pitch sequencing in this start against Atlanta.

Of his three most frequently used pitches, the fastball has proven the most effective thus far. Opponents are hitting just .200 off Thompson’s sinker, along with a .323 SLG and .300 wOBA. With an average velocity of 93.8 MPH, Thompson’s got some decent zip on his heater, but the real strength comes from its movement. Thompson averages 2362 RPM with his fastball, good for the 91^st percentile in the major leagues. He also has about two extra inches of drop and break on his fastball compared to league average, which allows the fastball to play above its velocity. Thompson notched 10 whiffs with his fastball in this start, and his 9% overall swinging strike rate is respectable for a fastball. The pitch has also excelled at inducing weak contact, as opponents have just an 87.3 MPH average exit velocity against Thompson’s four-seamer, along with a 29.3% hard hit rate overall, putting him solidly above average in that category. While it would be foolish to expect Thompson to sustain a .200 AVG against his fastball all season, there’s enough here to suggest Thompson can produce solid results with the pitch over a longer period.

Outside of his fastball, Thompson’s best pitch is probably his curveball, which has also stymied opposing hitters thus far. Batters are hitting just .234 off Thompson’s curveball, along with a .312 xwOBA, though the .532 SLG against is a bit concerning as Thompson has managed to surrender four home runs with the pitch already. While not as much an outlier as his fastball, Thompson’s curveball also has above-average spin and movement and has a decent 12.7% swinging strike rate itself.

While searching for good examples of the pitch to show off I came across this tweet from Pitching Ninja which showcases Thompson’s curveball at its best. Thompson’s curveball has nearly five extra inches of drop compared to the league average, he gets the best results when he can throw it slowly (81-83 MPH) out of the zone, and with a big, pronounced loop. Thompson throws a lot of cutters, sliders, and hybrids between the cutter, slider, and curve, but his best breaking ball seems to be the more traditional slower curve. Thompson lacks the stuff to maintain a high strikeout rate, but he’ll get the most strikeouts when he pitches off his fastball and curveball as he did in this start against the Braves.

Verdict:

Thompson throws a lot of different pitches — six, to be exact —but his primary focus has been the four-seamer, cutter, and curveball. His four-seamer has moderate velocity, but punches above its weight class thanks to exceptional spin and above-average movement, allowing Thompson to produce better whiff rates and get more favorable results than one might otherwise expect based on velocity alone. Of his array of secondary pitches, the curveball is the clear standout, though it’s hardly an eye-popper and Thompson will likely struggle to sustain a strikeout rate much higher than 20% (he has an 18.4% K rate as a starter this year). All told, he shapes up to be a high-risk streamer, showing us in his previous two starts ahead of this one just how bad things can get. His next start is scheduled for Wednesday at Pittsburgh, which is about as good as it gets for a pitcher like Thompson. Add him and use him there if you’re in need, but like with Johnny Cueto, don't feel the need to keep him on your roster if Thompson outlives his usefulness in fantasy.

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