Are You For Real? Surprising Pitcher Starts From Tanner Bibee and James Paxton

May 16, 2023

Elliott Baas looks at starting pitchers who turned in surprising starts recently. These SP could emerge as waiver wire targets and sleepers for Week 8, or simply mirages.

Welcome back to "Are You For Real?", a weekly column where we take starting pitchers who had surprisingly good starts over the past week and put them under the microscope to determine whether they're legit or just smoke and mirrors.

It was something old and something new this week. First we'll take a look at Cleveland youngster Tanner Bibee's strong Sunday outing. Then, we'll take a deep dive into the return of James Paxton, who impressed with a nine-strikeout performance on Friday.

Roster percentages are taken from Yahoo and are accurate as of 05/15/2023.

Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians – 43% Rostered

2023 Stats (prior to this start): 14.2 IP, 4.30 ERA, 3.16 FIP, 17.5% K-BB%

05/14 vs. LAA: 7.2 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 7 K

Sunday was a good day for Tanner Bibee, who put up his best performance yet as a major leaguer. The young right-hander allowed just one run over 7.2 innings in the no-decision, striking out seven. Bibee now has a 3.22 ERA through his first four starts and has many fantasy players wondering about his long-term prospects. Is there something special here with Tanner Bibee?

Originally a fifth-round pick back in 2021, Bibee gained some prospect pedigree in the minor leagues after experiencing a velocity spike. Bibee went from a low-90s fastball to sitting 95 MPH, and that velocity increase paired with a strong mix of secondary pitches has Bibee looking like a future stud. Altogether, Bibee uses a four-pitch mix, consisting of a four-seam fastball, a slider, a curveball, and a changeup.

It's about more than velocity with Bibee’s fastball, as he boasts above-average spin with the pitch as well. Beyond the raw measurables, Bibee finds a lot of success with his fastball due to plus command. Bibee has done a great job of keeping the pitch up and generating whiffs with it. Here’s Bibee’s fastball heatmap thus far (via Brooks Baseball).

Bibee had a reputation for great command as a prospect, and he has delivered thus far. Those high fastballs are deceptive to hitters on their own, and allow Bibee to set up his plethora of secondary pitches.

Among his secondary pitches, the biggest standout is the slider. His most commonly thrown pitch after the fastball, Bibee’s slider boasts exceptional spin and movement. It is in the 97^th percentile of slider spin in MLB this season and has about five extra inches of break compared to the league average. Here’s an example from this start.

The spin and movement make the pitch closer to a sweeper than a traditional slider, but it’s an effective breaking ball regardless of what you call it. Opponents have hit .200 with a .240 SLG and .192 wOBA off the pitch, which are pretty good results already, but Statcast numbers suggest that Bibee’s slider has actually underperformed. He has a .139 xBA, .175 xSLG, and .137 xwOBA with his slider this season. While it’s unlikely that Bibee achieves those numbers with his slider, these are promising metrics to see.

Bibee has a solid arsenal to work with, but perhaps more importantly he has superb command of his pitches. In that way, Bibee is the stereotypical Cleveland pitching prospect we’ve come to know over the past decade or so. Consider the likes of Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie, and Aaron Civale on their current roster. Cleveland prefers to polish the arsenals of natural control artists, rather than try to fix the command of natural fireballers. It’s when the stuff catches up with control that we truly find someone special, and that could be the case with Bibee. He looks polished, in control, and has multiple plus pitches. Bibee is someone that should be rostered in all formats.

Verdict:

Has Cleveland’s pitching development team done it again? Bibee has a plus fastball, two plus secondary pitches, and incredible control. It’s hard to find a flaw in his game to this point. While I’d hesitate to call him a full-blown breakout after just four starts, Bibee is in must-roster territory. The upside is too great to leave him sitting on waivers.

James Paxton, Boston Red Sox – 18% Rostered

2023 Stats: DNP

05/12 vs. STL: 5 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 9 K

Last Friday, for the first time in 766 days, James Paxton appeared in an MLB game. Not only did Paxton show up, but he also looked like vintage James Paxton, striking out nine over five innings in the no-decision. Paxton fits right into Boston’s rotation with other injury-prone veterans like Chris Sale and Corey Kluber, but what version of Paxton are we getting?  Can he go back to being the strikeout machine we know and love or have four years of injuries taken their toll?

The last time we saw James Paxton pitch a full season, he had a 3.82 ERA and 11.5 K/9 in 150.2 innings. Unfortunately, that was four years and two major surgeries ago, so Paxton needs to regain our trust. Paxton works with a four-pitch mix, using a four-seamer, a cutter, a curveball, and a changeup. For Paxton, he often found success with strong command of his mid-90s fastball and high strikeout numbers on his cutter, but that wasn’t always the case on Friday.

One thing did look strong on Friday for Paxton, and that was his fastball. Paxton averaged 96.3 MPH on his four-seamer in this start, which is slightly higher than his career average of 95.4 MPH. Additionally, Paxton maintained a spin rate of 2,309 RPM, slightly higher than his career average as well. Of course, this was just one start for Paxton, but it was certainly nice to see his fastball have so much life on it. At 34, Paxton is at an age where fastball decline is a concern regardless of injury history, so fantasy players should be encouraged by his fastball performance in this start. If Paxton can sustain this type of fastball velocity all season, he could be in for a renaissance year.

As good as the heater looked on Friday, the possibility of a James Paxton renaissance depends on more than his fastball. Paxton’s cutter has been his best strikeout weapon over the years, which is why his cutter outcomes were so strange in this start. Paxton earned zero whiffs with his cutter in this start. Zero. And he only had two called strikes for a CSW rate of 10%. That’s in stark contrast to his career 20.6% swinging strike rate and 37.8% chase rate with the pitch.

This was just one start, but at the same time, it's hard to fully believe in Paxton after this performance. He came out with less vertical movement on his cutter compared to his prime years, and I’m not sure whether the pitch can be the strikeout machine that it once was. One thing is for sure, Paxton will not maintain the strikeout numbers he earned with his fastball in this start going forward. Paxton’s fastball looked great, but a 36% whiff rate with the pitch simply isn’t sustainable.

Verdict:

Altogether, there were more positives than negatives in this start for Paxton. His fastball came out hot, he piled up the strikeouts, and his command looked great. Will he go back to being a top-20 starter like in his Seattle days? Unlikely, but with starting pitching talent always at a premium, Paxton certainly deserves roster consideration after this outing. There aren’t many guys on waivers who we could expect to put up a 25%+ strikeout rate, but Paxton has that upside. There are so many young pitchers getting attention right now, such as Tanner Bibee, Bryce Miller, and Eury Perez, that Paxton could slide under the radar in a lot of leagues. Paxton is a good consolation prize for those who miss out on the youngsters.

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