X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Are You For Real? Surprising Pitcher Starts From Michael Kopech and Reid Detmers

Welcome back to "Are You For Real?", a weekly column where we take starting pitchers who had surprisingly good starts over the past week and put them under the microscope to determine whether they're legit or just smoke and mirrors.

The post-hype pitchers came out to play last weekend, giving us some interesting pitching performances to break down. First, we'll look at arguably the best start of Michael Kopech's career as he held Kansas City to a lone baserunner in an eight-inning gem. Then, we'll break down a 12-strikeout performance from Angels southpaw Reid Detmers against the Twins on Friday.

Roster percentages are taken from Yahoo and are accurate as of 05/22/2023.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Michael Kopech, Chicago White Sox – 25% Rostered

2023 Stats (prior to this start): 42.1 IP, 5.74 ERA, 7.32 FIP, 6.8% K-BB%

05/19 vs. KC: 8 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 10 K

Kopech was incredible on Friday, carrying a perfect game bid into the sixth inning before finally allowing a baserunner. That runner would be the only one to reach base against Kopech, who finished the evening with 10 strikeouts over 8 scoreless innings. Not only was this Kopech’s best start of the season, it may be the best performance of his career to date. There were high expectations for Kopech as a prospect, leaving many wondering if the flashy fireballer could be finally putting things together.

Originally a first-round pick by the Red Sox back in 2014, Kopech was a key piece in the Chris Sale swap. The hype for Kopech as a prospect was palpable. The main reason for the excitement? Heat. Kopech was routinely touching 100 MPH on radar guns and even recorded a 105-MPH pitch as a minor leaguer. Scouts were salivating over Kopech’s potential, thinking that he’d become a frontline starter by pairing his high velocity with a wicked slider and plus curve. Injuries and inconsistencies have prevented that from happening, and Kopech rarely reaches triple digits on the gun anymore. Still, this start was the first step in the right direction.

It was all about the fastball for Kopech as a prospect, and it was all about the fastball in this start as well. Kopech threw his fastball 70% of the time in this start, even higher than his 63.4% usage rate on the season. Despite colossal struggles at times, Kopech’s fastball has remained effective. Opponents are hitting just .223 off the pitch this season with an 11.7% swinging strike rate, impressive numbers considering Kopech is the owner of a 6.28 FIP. Kopech no longer possesses elite velocity, but his average of 95.7 MPH is still well above average for a starter. Kopech also has 95th-percentile spin and above-average movement, making the fastball a powerful weapon.

Kopech’s fastball is still his standout pitch, but it’s not without its flaws. Rather, Kopech is not without his flaws. Batters may only have a .223 AVG against Kopech’s heater, but they have a .466 SLG and .461 xSLG. Kopech has surrendered seven home runs with the pitch already, making it a big contributing factor to his ugly 2.15 HR/9 rate. What’s the cause of this gopheritis? Two things: flyball tendencies and poor control.

Kopech currently has a 33.3% groundball rate, which is the ninth-lowest among qualified starters. His fastball drives the low groundball rate, as it’s his most frequently thrown pitch, and has a 49.3% flyball rate, the highest of any pitch for Kopech. A pitcher with flyball tendencies is already playing with fire at Guaranteed Rate Field, but Kopech’s poor control exacerbates the issue. A big focus of Kopech’s approach is the high fastball, which can be an incredibly effective pitch for Kopech but can also get him in trouble when he fails to execute. Here’s a look at Kopech’s fastball heatmap from this season (via brooksbaseball.net).

He’s focused on keeping the ball up but lives a little too much in the zone. To get an idea of how this affects him, here’s a look at an isolated power heatmap for Kopech’s fastball this season.

Batters can’t catch up to Kopech’s fastball when he locates high, but opponents have been feasting on anything in the zone, especially anything in the middle or lower parts of the zone. Kopech may’ve walked zero batters in this one, but it was the first time all season that he allowed zero walks. In fact, he issued six free passes in the start prior to this one and has issued multiple walks in all but two starts this season. Furthermore, the Royals have a 6.5% walk rate against right-handed pitching this season, tied for the lowest in the league. This most recent start was an encouraging sign for Kopech’s control, but we’ll have to see him continue the trend before we can trust him.

After the fastball, Kopech’s most used pitch is the slider, which he’s thrown 25.6% of the time this season. Opponents have struggled to get base hits off the pitch with a  .237 AVG against, but have had no problem hitting the pitch for power. Batters have a .475 SLG and .587 xSLG off Kopech’s slider. Like his fastball, Kopech’s slider has strong flyball tendencies, with 47.8% of all batted balls off the slider ending up in the air. With average movement and velocity, Kopech doesn’t rack up exceptional strikeout numbers with his slider. He has a 10.4% swinging strike rate and a 30.2% chase rate with his slider this season, both unremarkable numbers.

Kopech did have five whiffs with the pitch in this start, but those results may reflect the opponent rather than the pitcher. The Royals have a 25.1% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season, tied for second-highest in the majors. Much like with Kopech’s control, we need to see him do it more consistently and against stronger opponents before we can believe it.

Verdict:

Kopech is coming off the best start of his career, and there are plenty of positives to take away from this outing. This is some of the best control we’ve ever seen from Kopech, and it’s one of the few times we’ve witnessed his strikeout potential with the fastball-slider combo. Kopech’s fastball isn’t the 105-MPH stuff of legend we remembered hearing about, but it’s still a plus pitch that he can have success with if the rest of his game comes together.

Before we can start trusting him, Kopech will need to show us a few more strong outings. The Royals have a pitiful 74 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers this season, and Kopech has floundered against better opponents so far. Keep an eye on him, and maybe add him in deeper leagues, but refrain from using him in your starting lineups until we see more.

 

Reid Detmers, Los Angeles Angels – 39% Rostered

2023 Stats (prior to this start): 35 IP, 4.89 ERA, 3.90 FIP, 17.3% K-BB%

05/19 vs. MIN: 5.2 IP, 2 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 12 K

Detmers was a strikeout machine on Friday, tying a career-high by striking out 12 batters in a no-decision against the Twins. Strikeouts have been one of Detmers’s strong points this season, as the 23-year-old southpaw has a stellar 11.73 K/9 on the year. That strikeout upside certainly has piqued the interest of fantasy players, but Detmers still owns an ugly 4.87 ERA and 1.43 WHIP following this start. Was this start a righting of the ship, or is it still rough seas ahead for Detmers?

Originally the 10th overall pick back in 2020, Detmers was one of the Angels’ most highly touted pitching prospects. His deep repertoire with a plus fastball and two strong breaking balls had scouts excited about Detmers's long-term potential as a starter. Altogether, Detmers works with a four-pitch mix consisting of a four-seam fastball, slider, curveball, and the occasional changeup. The slider was the main attraction for Detmers in this start, as he racked up 17 whiffs with his slider alone.

17 whiffs is a great number for a start in general, making it even more impressive that Detmers achieved this number with just one pitch. If he was going to do it with any pitch it’d be the slider, which has been Detmers best strikeout pitch this season. Opponents are hitting .250 against the pitch with a monster 24.1% swinging strike rate and 42.3% chase rate. The strikeout numbers are way up on the pitch this season.

hisThe reason? Detmers has been a big spike in slider velocity, averaging 90.4 MPH with the pitch this year compared to 86 MPH last season. More’s changed than the velocity as well. Detmers’s slider went from a sweeping, loopy pitch to a harder, sharper version. The pitch is closer to a slider-cutter hybrid (slutter) than its previous iteration, which was closer to a curveball. To get a sense of the difference, let’s look at a Detmers slider from last season (top) compared to this season (bottom).

2022:

2023:

It’s essentially a different pitch, which has unlocked a new level of strikeout prowess for the left-hander. With such good strikeout metrics, it’s surprising that opponents have even managed to hit .250 off the pitch. Opposing batters have been fortunate enough to have a .408 BABIP off Detmers’s slider this season thanks to an inordinate 38% line drive rate. Detmers had a 23.1% line drive rate and .314 BABIP with his slider last season, so I think this may be a case of misfortune, even considering his tweaks to the pitch.

While we’re getting a little granular by looking at these numbers just on his slider, if we zoom out we can see similar bad luck. Detmers’s .366 BABIP against is the fourth-highest in the majors, and his 61.4% LOB rate is the seventh-lowest (min. 40 IP).  Detmers might have a 4.87 ERA, but his 3.45 FIP, 3.81 xFIP, and 3.70 SIERA all suggest he’s pitched much better.

While a lot of his poor performance can be boiled down to bad luck, not all of it can be excused away. Efficiency has been an issue for Detmers, as he’s only managed to complete six innings once all season. Walks have been an issue as well since Detmers has a bloated 9.6% walk rate this season and has yet to appear in a game without issuing at least one walk. Detmers’s command hasn’t matured to the level we’d like to see yet, making him volatile on a start-by-start basis and limiting his greater impact by driving up his pitch count and causing early exits.

His fastball has been clobbered this season, to the tune of a .298 AVG, .447 SLG, and .388 wOBA. Bad luck? Hardly, as Statcast projections suggest that Detmers’s fastball has overperformed on expected outcomes this season. He has a .330 xBA, .532 xSLG, and .427xwOBA with his fastball this season, numbers that are all about 70 points higher compared to last season.

Detmers has added nearly 2 MPH to his fastball this season, but the pitch has poor spin and movement, meaning Detmers really can’t afford to miss his spots. As his command improves his fastball performance should improve, but we shouldn’t expect that to happen overnight, or even this season. While not skyrocketing to success, Detmers has been following a solid path of progression throughout his young career, and there’s plenty more room to improve for this talented young arm.

Verdict:

Detmers has undergone a couple of changes this season. He’s throwing a few MPH harder, and he’s begun featuring a harder, sharper slider more prominently, leading to a big spike in strikeout numbers. While that hasn’t directly translated to a breakout, much of Detmers’s misfortune can be blamed on just that, misfortune. An elevated BABIP and inordinate strand rate drove up his ERA and WHIP, and ERA estimators suggest better days are ahead for Detmers. Detmers still lacks polish and his command can waver at times, but there is plenty to like about him. He’s worth an add in any league deeper than 12 teams and might be worth a stash in shallower leagues too if the player needs pitching.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Griffin Conine

To Have Shoulder Surgery On Tuesday
Luke Keaschall

Twins Prospect Luke Keaschall Suffers Broken Forearm
Logan Gilbert

Leaves Friday's Start With Forearm Tightness

Vikings Select Tai Felton To Finish Day 2

Seahawks Select Quarterback Jalen Milroe With The 92nd Pick Overall

Browns Select Dillon Gabriel 94th Overall

Packers Pick Savion Williams At No. 87 overall

Steelers Snag Kaleb Johnson In Round 3

Broncos Select Wide Receiver Pat Bryant With The 74th Overall Pick

Texans Select Jaylin Noel With 79th Pick

Lions Select Wide Receiver Isaac TeSlaa With The 70th Overall Pick
Jack Leiter

To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
Garrett Mitchell

Makes Early Exit
Luke Keaschall

Removed Early On Friday
Blake Snell

Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Brendan Donovan

Back In Action On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Coby Mayo

Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF