RADIO
Elliott Baas looks at starting pitchers who turned in surprising starts recently. These SP could emerge as waiver wire targets and sleepers for Week 4, or simply mirages.
Welcome back to "Are You For Real?", a weekly column where we take starting pitchers who had surprisingly good starts over the past week and put them under the microscope to determine whether they're legit or just smoke and mirrors.
This week we had some surprising starts from two East Division right-handers, and both did it against strong lineups. First, we'll look at Garrett Whitlock's start against the Baltimore Orioles, then we'll break down Max Meyer's dominant performance against the Atlanta Braves.
Roster percentages are taken from Yahoo! and are accurate as of April 15.
Garrett Whitlock, Boston Red Sox – 53% Rostered
2023 Stats: 71.2 IP, 5.15 ERA, 4.27 FIP, 19.4% K-BB%
April 11 vs. BAL: 5 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 4 K
Whitlock is one of several Boston pitchers out to a surprising early start to the season, putting up a sparkling 1.26 ERA through his first three starts. Whitlock took down his best opponent so far on Thursday, holding the mighty Baltimore Orioles to one run over five innings in the no-decision. Whitlock had an ERA north of five last season, so fantasy managers should be understandably skeptical of his early season performance. Can Whitlock keep it up, or will his good fortune run out?
Originally an 18th-round pick by the Yankees back in 2017, Whitlock came to Boston in the 2020 Rule 5 draft, working out of Boston’s bullpen in 2021. He was in and out of the rotation in 2022 and 2023, but Whitlock earned a permanent spot in the rotation this spring with a 2.49 ERA and 7.33 K:BB. Whitlock works with a five-pitch mix, consisting of a sinker, changeup, slider, sweeper, and cutter. All five pitches were on display in his start against Baltimore, but it was the changeup that really stood out.
An 84.6 mph offering, Whitlock’s changeup boasts above-average horizontal and vertical movement. He relied heavily on the pitch against the Orioles, throwing it 32% of the time, his most used pitch. It was working for him, as Whitlock notched five of his 10 whiffs with his changeup, good for a 33% whiff rate. With its plus movement, Whitlock’s changeup is effective against hitters from both sides of the plate and looks like a legitimate strikeout pitch.
His swinging strike rate with the changeup is down thus far this season at 10.3%, though that’s likely because of his transition to the rotation. Whitlock has a career 23% strikeout rate as a starter and a 28.1% strikeout rate as a reliever. He likely won’t be able to maintain the same strikeout numbers working out of the rotation, and I am skeptical of his eight-strikeout performance against Seattle earlier this season. He had just an 8.6% swinging strike rate in that start, and Seattle has the second-highest strikeout rate of any team going into play Monday, April 15. I’m not convinced that Whitlock can maintain the 10.05 K/9 he’s posted through his first three starts.
If he were to sustain that strikeout rate, it would be because his new pitches pick up the slack. Whitlock was primarily a fastball-changeup guy in past seasons, but this year he’s added a cutter and a harder slider to his arsenal. Interestingly, he’s only thrown his new pitches to left-handed batters. Whitlock does have slightly worse numbers against lefties for his career, but his struggles with left-handers were far from egregious.
So how are his new pitches doing? The slider has above-average movement and is performing well with opponents hitting just .167 off the pitch thus far, although Whitlock’s 9.1% whiff rate with the slider is quite underwhelming. The cutter has been less effective, with a .273 AVG and .636 SLG against, though it’s important to remember that we’re still dealing with a small sample size. Whitlock has only thrown 53 cutters and 33 sliders so far. Still, Whitlock needs to show us more with these pitches if we’re going to buy the slider and cutter as plus offerings.
That brings us to the liability in Whitlock’s arsenal, his 93.4 mph two-seam fastball. Opponents have pulverized this pitch thus far, with a .357 AVG and .373 wOBA against Whitlock’s fastball this season. He’s gotten unlucky results with his sinker as Whitlock has a laughably high .556 BABIP against the sinker. Still, opponents hit .326 off the pitch last season, and his .458 xSLG is slightly higher than the actual .429 SLG he’s allowed thus far.
Whitlock’s fastball has below-average velocity and spin at 2012 RPM, and he doesn’t induce enough groundballs with the pitch. Whitlock only has a 41.9% groundball rate with the sinker for his career, compared to a 26.4% line drive rate. This season he only has a 30.8% groundball rate and a 10-degree average launch angle against his fastball. Whitlock’s sinker is a mediocre offering that opponents should be able to continue hitting well, even when batted ball outcomes normalize.
Another issue with Whitlock’s fantasy viability is the short leash Boston has given him. Whitlock only threw 85 pitches in this one and wasn’t allowed to pitch past the fifth. The same was true in his first start against the Mariners. Despite rolling with eight strikeouts and just one earned run, he was pulled after 81 pitches in the fifth. His start against the Angels this season was the first time Whitlock ever went beyond 100 pitches, throwing 101. Wins and quality starts may be hard to come by with so many early exits, limiting Whitlock’s upside.
Verdict:
Whitlock has done some nice things thus far, and there’s reason to believe he can take another step. His changeup is a strong pitch that’s effective against hitters from both sides of the plate. He’s incorporated two new pitches that have deepened his arsenal and may help him finally stick as a starter. That being said, Whitlock still has plenty of room to grow as a starter. His new slider and cutter aren’t racking up whiffs, and his fastball is being crushed by opponents. He may have a 1.26 ERA, but his 4.24 xERA paints a less rosy picture. Ultimately, Whitlock is someone you can stream against weak opponents, but he hasn’t earned my trust against tougher lineups yet, even with this strong performance versus Baltimore.
Max Meyer, Miami Marlins – 47% Rostered
2023 Stats: DNP (Injury)
April 13 vs. ATL: 6 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 7 K
Meyer had his best start of the young season on Saturday, holding a stacked Atlanta Braves lineup to one run on six hits over six innings. Most impressive was his seven strikeouts to zero walks, both of which are career bests at the major league level. The one-time top prospect saw his stock take a hit after missing all of 2023 recovering from Tommy John surgery, but Meyer has been excellent in 2024 to this point with a sparkling 2.12 ERA through three starts. Is this a breakout for Meyer, or will we forget his name by June?
Once the third overall pick in the 2020 MLB draft, Meyer was a big deal in the Marlins organization. He was ranked as highly as the No. 24 prospect in baseball by Baseball Prospectus in 2022, and he was still the Marlins' third-ranked prospect by MLB Pipeline heading into 2024. Meyer works with a four-pitch mix, including a four-seam fastball, sinker, changeup, and a vaunted slider. The slider was a huge key to success for Meyer in this start, but is it really as good as scouts say?
Meyer dominated the Braves with his slider on Saturday, throwing it 54% of the time and earning 12 of his 23 (23!) whiffs with the pitch. A hard, sharp offering, Meyer averages 89.4 mph with his slider, although his velocity was down in this start as he threw it at just 87.9 mph. Meyer’s slider is characterized by its plus vertical movement, causing the pitch to sweep away from right-handed batters. Here’s an example of the pitch from this start.
Max Meyer's Slider is 🔥🔥🔥
Last night he earned 12 of his 23 (23!) whiffs with the pitch, and now has a monster 17.7% swinging strike rate with his slider on year. pic.twitter.com/bTTjsdkoI7
— Elliott Baas (@ElliottBaasBB) April 14, 2024
Nasty, nasty stuff from Meyer, who now has a 17.7% swinging strike rate and 32.4% chase rate with the pitch on the year. Meyer’s slider has both the velocity and movement to act as a plus strikeout pitch, and he’s capable of more than the 7.41 K/9 he’s posted thus far.
Meyer’s slider isn’t the only effective strikeout pitch in his arsenal either, as the young righty has been getting some impressive results with his changeup too. He’s only thrown the pitch 15% of the time, but opponents are hitting just .167 off Meyer’s changeup with a 15.8% swinging strike rate. Meyer got four whiffs on eight swings against Atlanta, using the pitch 19% of the time. Meyer’s changeup is an effective third pitch that should help him keep left-handed hitters at bay and give him a major league starter’s arsenal.
Max Meyer, Filthy 87mph Changeup. 👌 pic.twitter.com/5S9NjOvQdi
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 13, 2024
The secondary stuff looks great for Meyer, but what about the fastball? We’ve seen bad fastballs sink plenty of pitchers with promising secondary pitches. For Meyer, he is slightly above league average with 94.4 mph velocity this season, although it’s worth noting that his velocity was down against Atlanta at 93.6 mph. He also has above-average spin at 2392 RPM and above-average horizontal movement.
Batters are hitting just .077 off the pitch thus far, but that number will certainly rise once the .190 BABIP against his fastball normalizes. A .253 xBA and .447 xSLG against the fastball paint a more realistic picture of how this pitch could perform over the course of a full season, which is still solid for a rookie pitcher with electric breaking balls.
Meyer also added a sinker this season, though he’s only thrown it 8.o% of the time so far and used it 5.o% of the time against Atlanta. The pitch has shown above-average movement and has performed well so far, so it may become a bigger part of his arsenal down the line as he develops the pitch. If nothing else, it’s nice to see him actively working to improve and maximize his game on the diamond.
Another aspect of Meyer’s game that fantasy managers should be excited about is his strong minor league numbers. Meyer had a 2.41 ERA and 10.1 K/9 at Double-A and had a 3.31 ERA and 3.9 K:BB at Triple-A. He has not struggled with walks or home runs in the minor leagues, two issues that can often derail young starters with plus stuff. While command isn’t his biggest strength, it’s not a major concern for Meyer either.
Meyer’s biggest flaw would be his lack of professional experience. He’s a big-time prospect for Miami, but he only has 195 innings across all levels since 2021. He missed most of 2022 and all of 2023 due to Tommy John surgery, and the Marlins may limit his workload in what looks like a rebuilding season. He’s thrown six innings in his last two starts, so if he stays efficient he might be able to pitch deeper into games, but he’ll almost certainly have a short leash in terms of pitch count.
Verdict:
There is a lot to like about Max Meyer’s start against the Braves, and after digging deeper there’s a lot to like about Max Meyer as a whole. He has an electric slider that can rack up whiffs, he has a strong changeup that can complement the pitch, and his fastball grades out as above average. If we knew he’d be in the rotation all season, Meyer would be a must-add player. Unfortunately, I found out after doing this write-up that Meyer was demoted to Triple-A to make roster space for Edward Cabrera. It might not be long before we see Meyer again, especially if A.J. Puk continues to struggle or if Ryan Weathers cannot find any control. For now, Meyer is worth stashing in leagues where you can use an NA slot or if you have an extra bench spot for a minor leaguer. He’s too good to keep in the minors forever, and he’s too good to sit on the waiver wire. He, along with Paul Skenes and Jackson Jobe, are the best minor-league pitchers to stash at the moment.
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