Are You For Real? Surprising Pitcher Starts From Cole Ragans and Brandon Pfaadt

August 22, 2023

Elliott Baas looks at starting pitchers who turned in surprising starts recently. These SP could emerge as waiver wire targets and sleepers for Week 22, or simply mirages.

Welcome back to "Are You For Real?", a weekly column where we take starting pitchers who had surprisingly good starts over the past week and put them under the microscope to determine whether they're legit or just smoke and mirrors.

We had some excellent performances from a pair of interesting young arms this week. First, we'll be looking at Cole Ragans, who continued setting the world on fire with a nine-strikeout outing against the Cubs on Friday. Then, we'll break down the best start of Brandon Pfaadt's young career as he flirted with a no-hitter in San Diego.

Roster percentages are taken from Yahoo! and are accurate as of 08/21/2023.

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Cole Ragans, Kansas City Royals – 24% Rostered

2023 Stats (prior to this start): 47 IP, 4.02 ERA, 3.95 FIP, 14.5 K-BB%

08/18 @ CHC: 6 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 9 K

Cole Ragans kept on rolling Friday, fanning nine Cubs while picking up his fourth win of the year. Ragans has been incredible since coming to Kansas City in a midseason deal, posting a 2.51 ERA, 2.25 FIP, and a monster 11.3 K/9 in five starts with the Royals. Did Kansas City stumble into a future ace, or will Ragans’ luck run out soon?

Originally a first-round pick by the Rangers out of high school, Ragans' professional career was hampered by injury and the pandemic. However, the southpaw seems to have figured something out in recent years. In 2022 he put up a 3.04 ERA and 10.7 K/9 in 18 minor league starts. His 4.91 ERA and 6.1 K/9 in nine big league starts that year did throw some cold water on the Cole Ragans hype train. He pitched to a 5.92 ERA in 17 relief appearances for Texas, and they thought so little of him that they shipped him out for a rental reliever.

Ragans works with a deep arsenal of five pitches, including a four-seam fastball, a cutter, a changeup, a slider, and a curveball. Never known as a hard thrower, Ragans’ fastball velocity has spiked four MPH this season, going from a mediocre 92.1 MPH to a plus 96.2. These velocity gains have held since the trade, as Ragans has a 96.1 MPH average fastball velocity as a Royal.

Ragans also boasts plus spin with his fastball, averaging 2443 RPM with it this season. He also has a 28.2% chase rate and 10.6% swinging strike rate with his fastball on the year, both impressive marks. With above-average velocity and spin, Ragans’ fastball looks to be a plus offering that he can use to set a hitter up or to go after a hitter directly. Ragans has an ugly .304 AVG and .551 SLG against his four-seamer this season, but a .233 xBA and .353 xwOBA paint a rosier picture.

The fastball may have good peripheral numbers, but we don’t even need to peek below the surface to see how good Ragans’ changeup has been this season. Opposing batters have a .177 AVG, .194 SLG, and .199 wOBA off the changeup. He has only given up 11 total hits as of writing this. 12 people have walked on the moon, so if my math checks out, it’s more difficult to hit Cole Ragans’ changeup than it is to amble around the big cheese. Jokes aside, batters won’t be laughing when Ragans sends them back to the dugout (not that anyone was laughing anyway). Here’s an example of the pitch from his most recent start.

With plus velocity and break, Ragans’ changeup is more than a show-me pitch. It’s a strikeout weapon. He has an incredible 37.9% chase rate and 18.8% swinging strike rate with the pitch this season, and these metrics haven’t been inflated by Ragans’ time in the bullpen either. Batters are hitting .200 with a .022 ISO and a 23.08% swinging strike rate off Ragans’ changeup over his last five outings. Ragans’ changeup has all the ingredients of a dominant out pitch, and he should have no problem wielding it effectively against hitters from both sides of the plate.

Normally, a pitcher with improved velocity and a changeup this good would be exciting. Ragans takes it one step further by adding an entirely new pitch. Ragans did not throw a slider often prior to joining Kansas City, but he’s used a slider 13.66% of the time over his last five starts. An 86.4 MPH offering, it is a traditional slider that he uses primarily against left-handed hitters, choosing to lean on the slider over his changeup when same-handed hitters step into the box.

Ragans' new slider has frustrated hitters, with opponents managing just a .208 AVG and .210 wOBA against it. He also has an absurd 56.8% chase rate and 32.8% swinging strike rate with his slider. Obviously, those numbers won’t hold over a longer time period, but they're impressive nonetheless. The slider replaces Ragans’ suspect cutter and rounds out his repertoire perfectly.

There’s a lot to like about Ragans’ raw ability, and the only glaring flaw is poor control. Ragans has a 4.1 BB/9 this season and had a 5.1 BB/9 at Triple-A this year. He’s cut back on the walks since coming to KC, walking just 3.1 batters per nine in his five starts. Still, Ragans hasn’t appeared in a major league game without walking a batter since June 3. He also has six walks over his last two starts. Walks were never a huge problem for Ragans prior to this season, so perhaps he needs to rediscover his control after retooling his arsenal. He is oozing with upside, and better control could take him to the next level.

Verdict:

With increased fastball velocity, a solid curve, a new slider, and a lights-out changeup, Ragans looks like the complete package. He has four strong pitches that he can use to go after hitters, making him a strikeout machine. He’s allowed quite a few baserunners over his hot streak with a 1.36 WHIP, but his .378 BABIP is sure to come down over time. Ragans has the tendency to walk batters, but this wasn’t a problem for him as a prospect, and this is hardly a fatal flaw. Ragans is a must-add in all formats at this point. It’s unlikely that another pitcher of his caliber will emerge with six weeks remaining in the regular season.

Brandon Pfaadt, Arizona Diamondbacks – 9% Rostered

2023 Stats (prior to this start): 54.2 IP, 6.91 ERA, 5.75 FIP, 13.9 K-BB%

08/18 @ SD: 7 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 5 K

Brandon Pfaadt had a Pfaadt start on Friday, carrying a no-hitter into the seventh inning of a tough luck no decision. It was the first time Pfaadt had ever left a major league start with a zero on the board. This was a continuation of a mini hot streak for the young right-hander. Pfaadt has a 2.96 ERA and 9.25 K/9 over his last four starts, and he was finally able to bring his overall ERA below seven after this game. Has Pfaadt finally figured it out?

Originally a fifth-round pick out of Bellarmine University (Pfaadt is only the third Bellarmine University alum to reach the majors), Pfaadt was considered one of the better pitching prospects in baseball coming into 2023. His stock has taken a hit given his tough rookie campaign, but it’s easy to see what scouts like about Pfaadt. A 6’4”, 220-pound righty, Pfaadt works with a deep arsenal consisting of a four-seam fastball, sinker, sweeper, changeup, and curveball. While Pfaadt has lots of options, he’s primarily leaned on his four-seamer and sweeper in the big leagues. That was certainly the case for Pfaadt Friday evening.

Pfaadt threw either his four-seam fastball or sweeper a combined 87% of the time against the Padres, something that has been a regular occurrence for him this season. Pfaadt’s fastball has a middling velocity at 93.8 MPH, but he has plus spin at 2463 average RPM. Theoretically, the above-average spin would allow Pfaadt to better deceive hitters and earn whiffs. However, that hasn’t been the case as opponents have pulverized Pfaadt’s pfastball (I had to do it once) for a .321 AVG, .634 SLG, and .418 wOBA on the year. Is the fastball just bad? Maybe, but pitching is a lot like real estate. It’s about location, location, location. Let’s have a look at Pfaadt’s fastball heatmap from this season.

That’s far too much zone given Pfaadt’s average velocity. You can’t throw it down the middle and expect to fool major-league hitters. Pfaadt has a 64.4% zone rate with his fastball this season, and as we can see, he loves sending it down Broadway for his opponent. Did he do anything differently this start? Let’s have a peek.

Not much change, which is disappointing. Pfaadt has been a strike-thrower throughout his minor league career and I don’t expect him to reinvent his game entirely. However, it would be encouraging to see him experiment by throwing it high and out of the zone, trying to make hitters chase. While Pfaadt is taking the Seattle approach of hammering the zone like right-handers George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, and Bryce Miller, Pfaadt’s fastball isn’t good enough to hang like it is for the aforementioned Mariners. He may have gotten good results in this one, but it wasn’t because of his fastball.

If there’s one pitch Pfaadt can thank after this start, it’s his sweeper. He threw the pitch 33% of the time, and it's been his saving grace as a major leaguer. Opponents have a measly .150 AVG, .300 SLG, and .227 wOBA off it this season. An 83.5 MPH offering with plus vertical movement and spin, Pfaadt’s sweeper has been by far his most reliable pitch. He earned three of his nine whiffs with the pitch in this start and has a 39.4% chase rate and 15.8% swinging strike rate with his sweeper this season.  Pfaadt’s secondary pitches were considered the better part of his game by scouts, and the sweeper has been as advertised despite his struggles.

While the fastball and sweeper are Pfaadt’s two favorite pitches, he has mixed in a changeup, sinker, and curveball to varying success. His curveball has proven to be a powerful tool against lefties, as opponents have a .182 AVG and 15.4% swinging strike rate off the curve this year. The sinker and change have been less effective, with opponents putting up a .400 AVG or higher against each pitch thus far. It would be interesting to see if Pfaadt will mix in the curveball more regularly, as batters have a .116 xBA and 84.9 MPH average exit velocity against the curve thus far. He hasn’t trended in that direction yet, and he hasn’t changed enough about his approach to warrant trusting him this late into the season.

Verdict:

One of baseball’s top pitching prospects heading into the season, Pfaadt had a rude welcome to the majors thanks to his tendency to hang his mediocre fastball in the zone. This zone-heavy approach has worked wonders for the likes of Kirby and Gilbert, but Pfaadt doesn’t have the heat to challenge hitters like those pitchers. His sweeper has performed well and has the makings of a legit strikeout pitch, while his curveball has shown promise in limited usage.

That said, there's been a lot more bad than good thus far, as his 6.91 ERA didn't come from nowhere. Altogether, Pfaadt is a work in progress, and the Diamondbacks are trying to use him for crucial innings in a playoff race. Don’t be like the Diamondbacks. Pfaadt should not be trusted except in deeper leagues or desperate situations, at least until he shows us real improvements on the mound.

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