X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Are You For Real? Surprising Pitcher Starts From Chase Silseth and Austin Gomber

Chase Silseth - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Elliott Baas looks at starting pitchers who turned in surprising starts recently. These SP could emerge as waiver wire targets and sleepers for Week 20, or simply mirages.

Welcome back to "Are You For Real?", a weekly column where we take starting pitchers who had surprisingly good starts over the past week and put them under the microscope to determine whether they're legit or just smoke and mirrors.

Sunday belonged to the west, as we saw some excellent pitching from hurlers who call the western divisions their home. First, we'll look at Chase Silseth, who delivered an incredible performance in a game the Angels ultimately lost, as is tradition in Anaheim. Then, we'll break down Austin Gomber's six scoreless innings in St. Louis, the latest in a string of strong outings for him.

Roster percentages are taken from Yahoo! and are accurate as of 08/07/2023.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Chase Silseth, Los Angeles Angels – 24% Rostered

2023 Stats (prior to this start): 29.1 IP, 3.99 ERA, 5.04 FIP, 11.3% K-BB%

08/06 vs. SEA: 7 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 12 K

Shohei who? It was a career day for Chase Silseth on Sunday, as the young right-hander mowed down Seattle for 12 strikeouts over seven innings. His outing was spoiled by the Mariners in extra innings, but the start marks the third straight effective outing for Silseth since rejoining the Angels’ rotation. In fact, Silseth has a cool 2.04 ERA, 13.2 K/9, and 34.3% K-BB% over his last three starts. Could Silseth be the spark the Halos and your fantasy team need to make a run down the stretch, or will this Angel fail to produce a miracle?

Originally an 11th-round draft pick out of Arizona, Silseth was a mid-tier prospect in a weak Angels farm system. Silseth projected more as a tweener — a player who could make the occasional spot start and hang on as a number five, but not someone expected to be a strong fantasy contributor. He works with a five-pitch mix consisting of a four-seam fastball, sinker, slider, splitter, and cutter. However, Silseth has simplified his repertoire since returning to the rotation, relying more heavily on his slider and splitter while eschewing his cutter. In fact, the slider was his most frequently used pitch in his recent start. It is looking to be quite the weapon.

Silseth threw his slider 41.4% of the time in this start, which continues a trend that began upon his return to the majors. Silseth has thrown his slider 35.1% of the time over his last three starts, compared to an 18.3% usage rate prior to July 19. His slider has also morphed into a more effective pitch. Silseth has taken a few MPH off the slider, lowering it from 84.7 MPH on average to 81 MPH. He also added three inches of horizontal movement to the pitch, changing it from a traditional slider into a big, spinning slurve. To get an idea of the change, let’s look at Silseth’s slider from a start back in May and compare it to one from this start.

Oops. The pitch was poorly located and hardly moved, making it easy pickings for a left-handed slugger. Now, let’s look at two from his most recent start.

It’s an entirely new pitch and a big reason why Silseth has a 13.2 K/9 over his last three starts after posting a mediocre 8.2 K/9 in his eight previous MLB starts. Batters are now managing just a microscopic .087 AVG and .044 ISO against the pitch, along with a 23% swinging strike rate. It’s far too early to declare the pitch a bona fide strikeout weapon, but there’s a lot to like about what Silseth has done with it thus far, including his ability to target hitters from both sides of the plate.

So, is it move over Justin Steele? Is Chase Silseth our new slider king? What if I told you the slider wasn’t even his best strikeout pitch in this start? It’s true, as Silseth notched 12 of his 21 whiffs with his splitter, compared to eight whiffs with his slider. An 88 MPH offering, Silseth’s splitter is best characterized by its low spin (1,121 average RPM) and six additional inches of vertical break. Here’s an example of the pitch from this start.

Silseth had Julio Rodriguez nearly swinging out of his shoes. Fantasy players should certainly be encouraged by Silseth’s splitter usage, as he threw the splitter 23.2% of the time against Seattle. This was a big increase from his previous starts, including his two July starts. If Silseth can effectively wield both the slider and splitter, he could become a strikeout machine.

Before you break open the FAB piggy bank, there are some areas of concern. Yes, it is shocking to hear this about a pitcher with only 65 big-league innings under his belt, but it had to be said. Silseth’s fastball has been ineffective, even during his hot stretch. Over his last three starts, opponents have a .286 AVG and .786 SLG off his four-seamer, and opponents have a .444 wOBA and 94.3 MPH average exit velocity on the pitch this season. Consequently, he’s been susceptible to the long ball. Silseth has given up 1.73 HR/9 in 2023 and has served up four homers in his last three starts. In his 11 big league starts, Silseth has given up a home run in all but two. He also has three multi-homer starts to his name.

There is hope that Silseth works through his home run issues. He only had a 0.21 HR/9 at Triple-A this season, has a 56.4% groundball rate in the majors, and has been the victim of a 25.9% HR/FB ratio. Still, he needs to stop giving up home runs before we can trust him to, well, stop giving up home runs.

While he’s been unlucky on the home run front, he’s had his share of good fortune in other areas, chiefly his .241 BABIP and 76% LOB rate. His ability to induce groundballs should help keep his BABIP relatively low, but no one should expect him to maintain a .241 BABIP.

Verdict:

Silseth has revamped his game after a stint in the minors and looks like a whole new pitcher. He modified his slider from a traditional offering into a movement-heavy slurve to great success. He developed his splitter into his best strikeout weapon. This gives him two plus breaking balls ensuring he should be able to generate solid strikeout numbers on a consistent basis. Silseth is also an adept groundball pitcher, with a 56.4% groundball rate in the majors and a 57% rate in the minors this season. Silseth’s fastball is a below-average pitch, but with seasoning it could become more effective thanks to its 95 MPH velocity and above-average spin.

There are reasons to be skeptical of Silseth thanks to his .241 BABIP and ongoing home run issues, but they aren’t enough to scare me away. It’s unlikely that another pitcher of Silseth’s potential will emerge on waivers this season, so this is a player I’d be willing to invest a good portion of my remaining FAB to acquire.

 

Austin Gomber, Colorado Rockies – 11% Rostered

2023 Stats (prior to this start): 114 IP, 5.68 ERA, 5.32 FIP, 9.2% K-BB%

08/06 @ STL: 6 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 2 K

Austin Gomber had himself a bit of a revenge game on Sunday. He blanked the team that traded him by pitching six shutout innings to pick up his ninth win of the season. It must have felt good during what has been a rough season for Gomber. This start was the first time he left the game with zeros on the board since April 24 against Cleveland. However, Gomber’s strong performance extends beyond this past Sunday. Don’t look now, but Gomber has a 2.63 ERA, 3.43 FIP, and 4.1% K-BB% over his last eight starts. Could a Rockies hurler actually be valuable down the stretch, or will Gomber turn those who trust him into goobers?

Originally a fourth-round pick by St. Louis back in 2014, Gomber was Colorado’s big prize in the infamous Nolan Arenado swap. It hasn’t quite worked out as planned for Gomber or Colorado. The big left-hander has a 5.18 ERA in 79 career starts with the Rox, and his numbers have been worsening the longer he’s been in Colorado. Working with a four-pitch mix, Gomber throws a four-seam fastball, a slider, a curveball, and a changeup. It was mostly the fastball and slider that made easy work of the Cardinals in his most recent game. Gomber threw the two pitches 70% of the time.

While Gomber’s fastball and slider did plenty of work for him in this one, there’s reason for skepticism regarding the long-term sustainability of this approach. Batters have pulverized his fastball for a .339 AVG, .651 SLG, and .443 wOBA on the year. It’s certainly not easy to pitch in Coors, but the thin Rocky Mountain air doesn’t explain how batters have smoked his fastball for a 93 MPH average exit velocity, which is 2.5 MPH harder than he throws it. It also doesn’t explain the 15-degree average launch angle or the 4.2% swinging strike rate with the pitch. I know it’s a fastball, but yeesh.

If you’re looking for strikeouts, it's best to look elsewhere. Gomber’s fastball is deficient, but that’s the least of his problems. His slider has a .304 AVG against, an 11.4% swinging strike rate, and a pathetic 26.1% chase rate. Gomber got two whiffs with his slider in this start. Two. Of four total. Despite starting, he had either the same number or fewer whiffs than three of the relievers that appeared in this game. Even during his hot eight-start stretch, Gomber had a pitiful 15% strikeout rate. Gomber is more than a pitcher who doesn’t get many strikeouts. He’s an active detriment to your fantasy teams in Roto formats.

Does Gomber have any redeeming factor in fantasy? In fact, he does. His curveball has performed superbly this season, with batters mustering a .189 AVG, .316 SLG, and .233 wOBA off the pitch. With above-average spin and drop, Gomber’s curve could become a plus offering for him. He’ll never be a strikeout pitcher, but the curveball’s 12.5% swinging strike rate and 30.6% chase rate puts some oomph in Gomber’s game. Its average launch angle of four degrees also helps him keep the ball on the ground. This is something important for every pitcher, but especially for ones in Coors Field.

Wouldn’t it be great if I could tell you that Gomber has begun incorporating his curveball more frequently, and that’s the reason for his success? It would be simple and straightforward, and it would give fantasy players some modicum of confidence when adding and starting him. Unfortunately, that hasn’t been the case for Gomber, whose pitch mix hasn’t changed much over the course of the season. It seems like his recent stretch of success has primarily been the product of luck. It's hard to envision Gomber pitching to a sub-3 ERA going forward. Even a sub-4 ERA might be tough.

Verdict:

Gomber has an impressive 2.63 ERA, 3.43 FIP, and 4.1% K-BB% over his last eight starts, five of which came in Coors Field. With such an uncharacteristic performance, one would expect that he is doing something different, such as trying a new pitch or changing his sequencing. However, that’s not the case.

Gomber's underlying numbers still predict doom, and the deficiencies of his below-average stuff are exacerbated by his home ballpark. Gomber doesn’t produce strikeouts, has bloated ratios, and struggles to consistently win games due to his poor supporting cast. If you are still in the fantasy championship race at this point in the year, don’t trust Gomber with a title on the line.

 



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Griffin Conine

To Have Shoulder Surgery On Tuesday
Luke Keaschall

Twins Prospect Luke Keaschall Suffers Broken Forearm
Logan Gilbert

Leaves Friday's Start With Forearm Tightness

Vikings Select Tai Felton To Finish Day 2

Seahawks Select Quarterback Jalen Milroe With The 92nd Pick Overall

Browns Select Dillon Gabriel 94th Overall

Packers Pick Savion Williams At No. 87 overall

Steelers Snag Kaleb Johnson In Round 3

Broncos Select Wide Receiver Pat Bryant With The 74th Overall Pick

Texans Select Jaylin Noel With 79th Pick

Lions Select Wide Receiver Isaac TeSlaa With The 70th Overall Pick
Jack Leiter

To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
Garrett Mitchell

Makes Early Exit
Luke Keaschall

Removed Early On Friday
Blake Snell

Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Brendan Donovan

Back In Action On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Coby Mayo

Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF