X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Are You For Real? Surprising Pitcher Starts From Cal Quantrill and Jordan Wicks

Cal Quantrill fantasy baseball rankings pitchers draft sleepers MLB injury news

Elliott Baas looks at starting pitchers who turned in surprising starts recently. These SP could emerge as waiver wire targets and sleepers for Week 24, or simply mirages.

Welcome back to "Are You For Real?", a weekly column where we take starting pitchers who had surprisingly good starts over the past week and put them under the microscope to determine whether they're legit or just smoke and mirrors.

It was Central central this week, as we saw two excellent outings from pitchers who call a central division their home. First, we'll look at Cal Quantrill's triumphant return from the injured list against the Rays. Then, we'll break down recent Cubs call-up Jordan Wicks who's pitched well in his first two starts.

Roster percentages are taken from Yahoo! and are accurate as of 09/04/2023.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

Cal Quantrill, Cleveland Guardians – 12% Rostered

2023 Stats (Prior to this start): 67 IP, 6.45 ERA, 4.89 FIP, 5.2% K-BB%

09/01 vs. TB: 6 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 2 K

It was a friendly return from the injured list for Cal Quantrill, who picked up a quality start in his first appearance since July 5. Quantrill missed nearly two months with shoulder soreness, and things weren’t going great for him prior to being shut down. He had a 14.06 ERA and 2.4% K-BB% in the four starts prior to being placed on the injured list. While not exactly a Cy Young candidate, Quantrill had been a solid starter in the past, including a 3.59 ERA in 441 innings between 2020 and 2022. Can he return to the realm of fantasy usefulness, or are his days of relevance Quantrill-fiably over?

Once the eighth overall pick in the 2016 draft by San Diego, Quantrill didn’t have nearly the hype of some other Cleveland arms we’ve seen over the past few years, such as Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie, and more recently, Gavin Williams and Tanner Bibee. Quantrill was viewed more as a back-end starter, and he’d been a reliable number four coming into the year. He works with a deep arsenal of six pitches, including a four-seam fastball, sinker, cutter, changeup, curveball, and splitter.

Quantrill’s best pitch this season has been the curveball, which has frustrated opposing hitters for a .206 AVG, .382 SLG, and .247 wOBA against. The pitch is best characterized by its prominent vertical movement, giving it a classic rainbow curve. Here’s an example from an earlier start this season (source @pitchingninja)

With the exceptional performance of this pitch, it’s a wonder that Quantrill doesn’t incorporate it more into his approach on the mound. He’s only thrown his curveball 9.7% of the time this season, and only thrown his splitter 7.2% of the time. He’s used his sinker, cutter, and changeup most often. Those three pitches all have an xwOBA against greater than .350. This isn’t a working strategy, and we’ll need to see some change in approach before Quantrill becomes interesting. He could be moving in that direction, as Quantrill began using his splitter more frequently in this one.

Quantrill threw his splitter 18.6% of the time in this start, the highest usage of any start for him this season. Quantrill threw the pitch under 5% of the time in the three starts leading up to his injured list stint, so perhaps he didn’t have a feel for the pitch due to his shoulder ailment. The splitter is a new addition for Quantrill, who had begun working it in during spring training.

Quantrill’s splitter usage has oscillated throughout the season. An 87 MPH offering with 1050 RPM, Quantrill’s splitter acts as a split-change and Quantrill uses it mostly as a finisher. Is it finishing? Sort of, as Quantrill has induced an impressive -10-degree average launch angle with the pitch, leading to a .250 AVG and .213 xBA against this season. While the 58% groundball rate on Quantrill’s splitter is nice, the 7.8% swinging strike rate and 27.6% chase rate leave much to be desired.

Poor strikeout peripherals shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone who’s ever looked at the back of Quantrill’s baseball card. His 17.8% career strikeout rate is five percent lower than league average. He’s also found a new low this season with a 12.1% strikeout rate and 7.3% swinging strike rate. Of the six pitches in his arsenal, not one has a swinging strike rate greater than 10% or a chase rate greater than 28% this season. Quantrill has the strikeout prowess of a pitcher from 1973, not 2023. It’s difficult to consider a pitcher in fantasy who’s been inconsistent with run prevention when there are no strikeouts to bolster his value. Consider Quantrill in comparison to another volatile AL righty, Nick Pivetta. Pivetta may issue too many walks, or give up a few too many homers, but he can at least give you strikeout value. Quantrill is all downside.

Verdict:

There isn’t a lot to like about what Quantrill is doing from a fantasy perspective. He has been shellacked for the better part of the season, leaving him with an ugly 6.16 ERA and 5.61 SIERA in 14 starts. He has a pitiful 12.1% strikeout rate and 1.60 K/BB ratio. He also earned just six swinging strikes in this start. Quantrill has added a splitter and began using it more often in this outing, but that’s not nearly enough to trust him, especially this late in the season. Quantrill’s three primary pitches (sinker, cutter, and changeup) are all below average, and in turn, so is he. He’s a full avoid in all but the deepest of leagues.

 

Jordan Wicks, Chicago Cubs – 25% Rostered

2023 Stats (AAA): 33 IP, 3.82 ERA, 4.22 FIP, 12.6% K-BB%

09/01 @ CIN: 5 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 3 K

Jordan Wicks followed up his dominant nine-strikeout debut with another excellent performance, holding division rival Cincinnati to one run while picking up his second victory in as many starts. The Cubs have struggled to solidify the back-end of their rotation all season, and Wicks has flashed the potential to add some stability to the staff. Will Wicks follow in the footsteps of Justin Steele and Javier Assad and emerge as the next exciting young arm on the north side, or will this candle burn to the Wick(s)?

A first-round pick out of Kansas State in 2021, Wicks was the 10th-ranked prospect in Chicago’s system by MLB pipeline. His time in the minor leagues is best characterized by his exceptional strikeout rates. Wicks sustained a strikeout rate of 29% or higher at every level until reaching Triple-A, where it dipped to 22.2% in seven starts. Wicks uses a six-pitch mix consisting of a four-seam fastball, sinker, cutter, slider, curveball, and changeup. It’s a broad arsenal, but much of the focus belongs on one pitch, which is the changeup.

Batters have been stymied by Wicks’ changeup thus far, with opponents yet to muster a single hit off the changeup in two starts. Instead, batters have flailed hopelessly at it for a 23.8% swinging strike rate and a 44.6% chase rate. What makes the pitch so special? With tremendous vertical movement, Wicks’ changeup dies just as it’s coming to the plate, befuddling batters who expect to crush a juicy heater. Here’s an example from earlier this season.

Nasty. The other NL Wild Card contenders probably wish Chicago left Wicks in the minors after seeing him unleash his changeup against two division rivals. Wicks was able to maintain consistent strikeout numbers in the minors with this pitch, and he may be able to carry that success into the majors. Wicks’ changeup has all the makings of an out pitch.

Wicks’ changeup has gotten plenty of well-deserved hype, but what about the rest of his arsenal? He has below-average fastball velocity at 92.6 MPH, and his middling fastball spin and movement struggle to make up the gap. Wicks won’t be able to blow by hitters with this heater and may be prone to home runs. He had a 1.61 HR/9 at Double-A in 2022, and a 1.39 HR/9 at that level this season prior to his promotion. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Wicks run into homer trouble if he mislocates with his fastball. Altogether, this is a below-average fastball that Wicks can make do with because of his outstanding changeup.

While Wicks has toyed with several secondary offerings, his most prominently used pitch outside of the changeup and fastball would be his cutter. An 89.1 MPH pitch, Wicks’ cutter has great horizontal movement and has generated weak contact thus far. Opposing hitters have a 78.9 MPH average exit velocity and a -14-degree average launch angle off Wicks’ cutter this season. However, bear in mind that he’s only had two career starts. The cutter has the potential to be a solid third pitch, which would round out Wicks’ arsenal and make him starting rotation material.

Verdict:

With exceptional vertical movement, chase, and a soft contact profile, Wicks’ changeup is certainly for real. The rest of his game? It’s a work in progress. Wicks must learn to navigate the big leagues with a common conundrum for a young starting pitcher. He has one outstanding pitch trying to make up for a weak fastball and buttressed by rough secondary offerings. Wicks has the potential to rack up the strikeouts on any given night, and for that, he has fantasy upside. Consider Wicks an invigorating but raw September call-up for your team. He’s got the stuff to provide a late-season spark, but he’s unpolished and could have some rough starts ahead. If you’re comfortable with your rotation, pass. If you need that spark, try lighting this Wick(s).



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Griffin Conine

To Have Shoulder Surgery On Tuesday
Luke Keaschall

Twins Prospect Luke Keaschall Suffers Broken Forearm
Logan Gilbert

Leaves Friday's Start With Forearm Tightness

Vikings Select Tai Felton To Finish Day 2

Seahawks Select Quarterback Jalen Milroe With The 92nd Pick Overall

Browns Select Dillon Gabriel 94th Overall

Packers Pick Savion Williams At No. 87 overall

Steelers Snag Kaleb Johnson In Round 3

Broncos Select Wide Receiver Pat Bryant With The 74th Overall Pick

Texans Select Jaylin Noel With 79th Pick

Lions Select Wide Receiver Isaac TeSlaa With The 70th Overall Pick
Jack Leiter

To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
Garrett Mitchell

Makes Early Exit
Luke Keaschall

Removed Early On Friday
Blake Snell

Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Brendan Donovan

Back In Action On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Coby Mayo

Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF