Are You For Real? Surprising MLB Pitcher Starts from Week 21

Elliott Baas looks at starting pitchers who turned in surprising starts recently. These SP could emerge as waiver wire targets and sleepers for Week 21, or simply mirages.

Welcome back to "Are You For Real?", a weekly column where we take starting pitchers who had surprisingly good starts over the past week and put them under the microscope to determine whether they're legit or just smoke and mirrors.

We're headed west this week, as there were three interesting outings from starters in the West divisions over the weekend. We'll be taking a look at both JP Sears and Adam Oller shutting down the Yankees in separate starts for Oakland, and we'll be breaking down German Marquez's dominance of the Mets.

Roster percentages are taken from Yahoo and are accurate as of 8/29/22.

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Adam Oller, Oakland Athletics – 2% Rostered

2022 Stats (prior to this season): 60.1 IP, 6.41 ERA, 6.44 FIP, 1.4 K-BB%

08/27 vs. NYY: 8 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 K

It was a night to remember for Adam Oller on Saturday, who turned in his best performance to date as a big leaguer over the Yankees. Oller was spectacular, blanking the Bronx Bombers over eight innings of one-hit ball in the no-decision. Oller is on something of a hot streak as of late, with a 2.19 ERA over his last four starts. He got off to a brutal start, but could Oller be emerging as a late-season deep league find?

Originally drafted in the 20^th round of the 2016 MLB Draft by Pittsburgh, Oller had a long road to the major leagues. He bounced around four different organizations prior to Oakland, including time in independent ball after flaming out with Pittsburgh. He came to Oakland from the Mets as part of the Chris Bassitt trade, and while that trade looks pretty lopsided right now, Oakland is certainly hoping they get more of the Adam Oller we saw on Saturday to help even the score.

Oller uses a five-pitch repertoire consisting of a four-seam fastball, sinker, cutter, changeup, and slider. The cutter has been Oller’s best pitch thus far, and it’s a pitch he relied upon heavily in this outing against the Yankees. At 89.5 MPH it comes in a few MPH slower than his four-seamer, which sits around 93.5 MPH, and from a velocity and movement perspective the pitch comes in somewhere between his fastball and slider. Opposing batters have struggled against Oller’s cutter, managing just a .239 AVG off the pitch this season. Power hasn’t been an issue for batters, however, as opponents have still mustered a .493 SLG off Oller’s cutter despite the low batting average.

What makes the pitch so susceptible to power is the same thing that makes it effective in the first place, and that’s a propensity to induce flyballs. Oller has a 41.4% flyball rate and a 16-degree average launch angle against on balls-in-play off his cutter this season. Pitchers with flyball tendencies can be scary to roster, but it’s important to remember that flyballs are the least likely batted ball type to fall for a hit. It’s why Oller’s cutter has a .244 xBA, just five points higher than his actual batting average. Oller is especially skilled in inducing the infield flyball (29.2% IFFB rate on the cutter), which is essentially an automatic out.

Oller achieves this with a non-traditional approach, throwing his cutter high and in the zone frequently. Here’s a peek at Oller’s cutter heatmap from this season.

That much high pitching is quite unique. In fact, for a frame of reference let’s compare this to the current MLB cutter king, Corbin Burnes. This writer is not comparing Burnes and Oller directly—the two are universes apart at the moment—but just their cutter location.

Burnes is a lot more focused on keeping the ball down versus Oller. That’s not just superior command on Burnes’s part, but a clear difference in approach and tactics.

Oller has been a flyball machine this season, and not just with his cutter. Oller has a 45.5% flyball rate with his slider, and a monster 55.7% flyball rate with his four-seamer, including a 27-degree average launch angle with that pitch. This type of approach can prove quite effective in limiting the number of balls that drop in for hits and can allow pitchers to outperform ERA estimators and produce solid results even when their peripherals aren’t sparkling clean. It’s why Oller’s current .266 BABIP against isn’t that outrageous. He’s not surrendering high-probability batted balls on a regular basis.

A heavy flyball pitcher can work, but in Oller’s case it’s a bit of a reach, this writer must admit. The issue with Oller is that outside of his flyball tendencies, there is not much to like about his game. His 13.2% strikeout rate is atrocious in the modern game, and with an 11.2% BB rate, he issues nearly as many walks as he earns strikeouts. His flyball tendencies also make him susceptible to home runs, as Oller has given up an astonishing 1.71 HR/9 this season, despite pitching half his games in Oakland.

Oller’s stuff is rather underwhelming too. He doesn’t throw particularly hard and has below-average spin on his fastball as well. It’s no wonder his fastball has been clobbered for a .264 AVG and .494 SLG,. It’s not hard, it’s not deceptive, and he’s throwing it high in the zone. This is a recipe for disaster, and for Oller, it’s mostly been a disaster this year. Prior to his recent hot stretch, Oller had a 7.68 ERA and 7.16 FIP. Heck, it’s taken a .266 BABIP against for him to produce his current 5.66 ERA. Even in deeper leagues, there’s got to be someone more appealing.

Verdict:

The things Oller does well are molehills compared to the mountains of flaws in his still underdeveloped game. Sure, inducing flyballs at such an extreme rate can be effective in a quirky, unorthodox way, but the reward does not outweigh the risk. Oller is a low-dominance pitcher on a team that won’t support him for wins (he even got a no-decision in this start) who gives up far too many free passes.  The only category he could realistically help you in is ERA, and that’s been a challenge for him this year. Oller is a hard avoid until he proves otherwise.

German Marquez, Colorado Rockies – 32% Rostered

2022 Stats (prior to this start): 139.2 IP, 5.22 ERA, 4.69 FIP, 11.1% K-BB%

08/28 @ NYM: 7 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 5 K

Marquez was fantastic on Sunday, shutting down one of baseball’s top offenses in the Mets with seven innings of one-hit, shutout ball. Marquez notched his seventh victory in the outing, and in the process lowered his ERA back below five to a cool 4.97. Okay, maybe it’s still a little bloated, but this was a step in the right direction for Marquez, a pitcher who many thought capable of breaking the Coors curse and being a consistently effective Colorado hurler. That hasn’t been the case this season, but we know there’s talent in this arm as Marquez has been a strong fantasy contributor in the past. Was this outing a sign of things to come, or just an aberration in an otherwise forgettable year for Marquez?

Originally acquired by the Rockies from Tampa Bay in the Corey Dickerson swap, Marquez has been one of the best Rockies pitchers over his time with the organization. 2018 and 2020 were particularly strong years for Marquez, who posted ERAs of 3.77 and 3.75 and FIPs of 3.40 and 3.28 in 2018 and 2020 respectively. Longtime seen as a victim of high altitude, Marquez has posted an xFIP below 4.00 in every season since 2018, including this one (3.91).

Marquez works with a five-pitch mix, consisting of a four-seam fastball, sinker, slider, curveball, and changeup. The changeup is a show-me pitch that Marquez rarely uses, but he throws all of his other pitches quite regularly, using each pitch at least 20% of the time this season. One of his offerings stands above the rest, and that’s his curveball, a pitch that has flummoxed opposing batters throughout Marquez’s career.

Marquez’s curveball is his best pitch, and with his struggles this season one might assume that Marquez isn’t getting the same results on his curve, but that is surprisingly not the case. Batters have hit a microscopic .138 off Marquez’s curveball this season, along with a .219 SLG and .172 wOBA. He also has a monster 18.3% swinging strike rate with the pitch, making it one of the best swing-and-miss curveballs in the game today. In short, Marquez’s curveball is as good as it’s ever been, and if that’s true, what’s his deal? His best weapon is still at his disposal, yet he’s having a down season.

The culprit is a twist on a usual suspect for Marquez, and that’s his fastball. Marquez throws relatively hard with an average fastball velocity of 95.5 MPH, but with just 21^st percentile spin and poor movement, Marquez’s fastball is straight and hittable. Making matters worse, Marquez has upped his sinker usage this season, a pitch that has been absolutely demolished by opposing batters.

This year opponents have hit .319 off Marquez’s sinker with a .574 SLG and .398 wOBA. Statcast expected stats indicate that this performance was earned as well since Marquez has a .343 xBA, .543 xSLG, and .405 xwOBA off his sinker in 2022. Marquez hadn’t used his sinker much prior to this season, but his usage rate has more than doubled this season, going from a 9.7% career rate to 23.5% this season.

It would be encouraging to see Marquez’s sinker usage trend downwards, but it’s only increased as the season’s gone on; he used sinkers at a 2:1 ratio to four-seamers in this start against the Mets, and he seems oh so happy to keep throwing the ineffective pitch. It hasn’t even improved his groundball rate, as Marquez’s 47.5% groundball rate this season is below his career average.

If this writer had control over the Colorado Rockies, the first thing he’d do is try and find a buyer for the Kris Bryant contract. The second thing he’d do is get cracking on German Marquez because there is a talented pitcher here, but he needs a new approach. He’s still trying too hard to establish his fastball, clinging to old-school pitching techniques. If Marquez could learn to pitch backwards, relying more heavily on his breaking balls, he might be able to recapture some of the magic we’ve seen from him in the past. Unfortunately, he is trending in the wrong direction right now. Here’s a look at his sinker and curveball usage game-over-game this season.

The curveball is on an inconsistent trend upwards, but there’s no doubt about that sinker. Marquez, or the Colorado brass, seems to like the sinker approach as it’s trended upwards all season. It’s true that the thin air of Colorado affects pitch movement, but it would still be nice to see Marquez go all-in on a breaking ball-heavy approach, something we’ve seen many talented pitchers try with great success.

Verdict:

Even in his current state, Marquez has some fantasy value. Unsurprisingly, you can feel pretty safe about using him on the road. Marquez has a 3.69 ERA on the road this season compared to a 6.09 ERA at home. He’s also been much better over the last two months, with a 3.77 ERA since the All-Star break. It’s hard to love a pitcher who plays for Colorado, but Marquez is clearly gifted and capable of producing in the right circumstances. He needs a change in approach (and perhaps a change of scenery) to fully unlock his fantasy value. For now, stream him on the road against all but the toughest of opponents. His next start comes Saturday at Cincinnati, which is about as good as it gets for streaming matchups for Marquez.

JP Sears, Oakland Athletics – 14% Rostered

2022 Stats (prior to this start): 37.1 IP, 1.93 ERA, 3.39 FIP, 9.9 K-BB%

08/26 vs. NYY: 5 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 4 BB, 3 K

It’s been an incredible start to the big league career of JP Sears, who now sports a sparkling 2.28 ERA following this outing against the mighty New York Yankees. With Oakland just trying to make it through to the end of the season, Sears has a guaranteed starter’s role for the remainder of the season. Sears might be good enough for Oakland, but is he good enough for your fantasy team? Let’s put the lefty under the microscope and find out.

Acquired at the deadline from these Yankees as part of the Frankie Montas swap, Sears is the quintessential Oakland Athletics player. An undersized lefty (5’11”, 180 lbs), Sears was an 11^th-round pick by Seattle back in 2017. He was never much of a prospect either, barely making waves in the Yankees’ system much less garnering any national attention. Sears uses just three pitches as well, throwing a four-seam fastball, slider, and changeup. Of these pitches, his slider has been the best by a wide margin thus far.

Opponents have been stupefied by Sears’s slider this season, managing a microscopic .143 AVG, .286 SLG, and .247 wOBA off the pitch. It’s also been Sears’s best strikeout pitch, with a 12.8% swinging strike rate and 31.2% chase rate on the year. What makes the pitch so good? Averaging just 79.7 MPH on the gun, Sears slider lacks the velocity of most top-line sliders, but he makes up for it with a sweeping movement. Altogether, Sears’s slider has exceptional movement, with six inches of both drop and break above league average. Here’s an example from this earlier this season.

It has sort of a late, funky movement to it, making it hard for Adolis Garcia to hold up on a two-strike count.

Its strikeout numbers are underwhelming, but Sears’s slider does one thing exceptionally well, and that is induce flyballs. Flyball-heavy pitchers aren’t typically this writer’s jam in fantasy baseball, but it’s noteworthy in Sears’s case due to how extreme his tendencies have been. Sears has a 27-degree average launch angle and 54.4% flyball rate with his slider this season. This would’ve been a major issue if Sears was still pitching in Yankee Stadium, but the effect won’t be as extreme in Oakland.

Sure, Sears is doing a good job of inducing low probability hits, but his 5.4 K/9 is a massive disappointment considering how much of a strikeout monster he was in the minor leagues. Sears had an 11.51 K/9 at Triple-A this season and an 11.3 K/9 between Double-A and Triple-A last season. It’s as if his strikeout abilities evaporated once he hit the major leagues. Does his stuff just not play at the MLB level?

Sears has a rather rudimentary pitching style, leaning heavily on his fastball and slider and only throwing his changeup occasionally to opposite-handed hitters. This type of approach can work for pitchers with transcendent talent, but that doesn't seem to be the case with Sears, who has a good-not-great slider and an average-at-best fastball.

Speaking of fastball, it’s a wonder that Sears' fastball hasn’t produced worse results thus far. Opponents are hitting .284 against the pitch with a .400 SLG and .323 wOBA, which is manageable, but by the quality of contact surrendered the results should be much worse. Batters have crushed Sears’s fastball for a 92 MPH average exit velocity. They also have a 14-degree average launch angle, meaning batters are just smashing line drives left and right against this pitch. Overall Sears has a 90.9 MPH average exit velocity and a 45.3% hard-hit rate against this season. With a glance at his profile and surface stats, this writer was expecting a soft contact wizard, but it’s been the opposite for Sears thus far.

Verdict:

There’s just not much to like about the current version of Sears. He doesn’t produce strikeouts, he doesn’t limit hard contact, and he doesn’t limit baserunners. He also pitches for a losing club, meaning he won’t be in line for many wins going forward, especially since he rarely makes it past the fifth inning. He profiles better than Adam Oller, and one could see a future for JP Sears if he could find a way to recapture his minor league dominance, but for now, he’s a low-end streaming option. His next start is about as good as it gets, Thursday at Washington, so he’s usable there, but not someone we should be ready to trust long term.

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