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Elliott Baas looks at starting pitchers who turned in surprising starts recently. These SPs could emerge as fantasy baseball waiver wire targets and sleepers for Week 7, or simply mirages.
Welcome back to "Are You For Real?", a weekly column where we take starting pitchers who had surprisingly good starts over the past week and put them under the microscope to determine whether they're legit or just smoke and mirrors.
This week, we're breaking down starts from two AL East arms in interleague action. First, we'll take a look at Zack Littell outshining Christian Scott during his MLB debut. Then, we'll dig deep into John Means' dominant return to the mound against Cincinnati.
Roster percentages are taken from Yahoo! and are accurate as of May 6.
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Zack Littell, Tampa Bay Rays – 38% Rostered
2024 Stats (prior to this start): 33 IP, 3.27 ERA, 2.67 FIP, 21.3% K-BB%
5/4 vs. NYM: 6 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 7 K
Littell went toe-to-toe with Mets rookie Christian Scott on Saturday, allowing just one run over six innings of work in the no-decision. Littell has been rolling since Opening Day and now owns a sparkling 3.00 ERA and 2.38 FIP on the season. The Tampa Bay Rays seem to have a knack for finding unheralded arms and turning them into successful big leaguers, and Littell may be their latest find. But can he keep it up? Will Zack’s impact be big or Littell?
Originally an 11th-round draft pick by the Mariners back in 2013, Littell was passed around the league before winding up in Tampa Bay, spending time in the system of Seattle, the New York Yankees, Minnesota, San Francisco, Texas, and Boston. Since coming to the Rays, Littell has a 3.64 ERA and 3.49 FIP in 126 innings. He works with a five-pitch mix consisting of a four-seamer, sinker, slider, splitter, and sweeper. Man, a lot of pitches start with the letter S. It may be a deep arsenal for Littell, but two pitches really stood out in this start, and that would be the slider and the splitter.
Littell’s most used pitch in this start was his slider, and it was fooling the Mets hitters. Littell threw it 33% of the time and earned nine of his 18 whiffs with his slider against New York on Saturday. A harder offering at 86.8 mph, Littell’s slider is characterized by its sharp vertical movement. The pitch cuts away from right-handed batters with exceptional drop. Opposing hitters have struggled mightily against Littell’s slider, mustering a .196 AVG, .250 SLG, and .223 wOBA off the pitch thus far. Littell gets decent swings and misses with the pitch, with a 13.4% swinging strike rate and a 34.3% chase rate on the year. While far from an elite offering, Littell’s slider is a solid pitch capable of producing outs and whiffs.
While the slider can get a decent number of whiffs, Littell’s best strikeout pitch is his splitter. An 82.9 mph offering, Littell’s splitter has plus vertical movement and an extremely low spin rate at 798 RPM. That low spin rate makes the pitch exceptionally deceptive as Littell’s off-speed pitch. Littell has some impressive strikeout numbers with his splitter this season. He has a 19% swinging strike rate and a monster 43.7% chase rate. He’s had some unlucky results with the splitter thus far, with opponents posting a .303 AVG off Littell’s splitter, but he also has a .185 xBA and .198 xwOBA. Littell somehow has a .476 BABIP against his splitter this season despite an 86.9 mph average exit velocity against. Outcomes should normalize against his splitter over the course of a season and he should produce better results with the pitch going forward.
Zack Littell splitter pic.twitter.com/kqshO1i8qi
— Elliott Baas (@ElliottBaasBB) May 6, 2024
So, Littell’s secondary stuff looks pretty good. But what about his fastballs? Littell throws both a four-seamer and a sinker, averaging 92.7 mph and 92.1 mph with each pitch, respectively. Batters have pulverized Littell’s sinker for a .394 AVG, .667 SLG, and .469 wOBA. The expected stats aren’t much better, either, as batters have a .311 xBA, .528 xSLG, and .366 xwOBA off Littell’s sinker this season.
There are two major issues with the pitch, which are hard contact and a lack of ground balls. Opponents have a 92 mph average exit velocity and an 18-degree average launch angle against Littell’s sinker this season. He has just a 30.8% ground-ball rate with the pitch compared to a brutal 38.5% line drive rate. The sinker performed much better for Littell last season, and that’s because Littell wasn’t living in the zone as much. He had a rather high 61.5% zone rate last year, but it’s ballooned to 75% this season. Here’s a comparison of Littell’s sinker heatmaps from 2023 and 2024.
2023:
2024:
Littell’s sinker has neither the velocity or movement to challenge hitters in the zone like this, and he’s been punished for it as a result. If he can begin locating his sinker better, Littell could see better results down the line.
The fastball that has performed well thus far is Littell’s four-seamer. Opponents have a .231 AVG, .308 SLG, and .254 wOBA against Littell’s four-seamer this season. Even better, batters have a .193 xBA, .288 xSLG, and .224 xwOBA off the pitch. If I had to use one word to describe Littell’s four-seam fastball, it would be average. It has average velocity, average spin, average vert, and average break. It’s not his best pitch, but the rest of his arsenal is good enough that Littell can get by with an average heater.
Verdict:
Littell has two really good secondary offerings between his slider and splitter. His splitter is especially impressive with its crazy low spin rate and sharp drop. It’s a bona fide strikeout pitch and Littell could maintain a decent strikeout rate all season long. He might not be able to keep it at 25.6%, which would be a career-high, but between 22%-25% seems realistic. He’s also showcased excellent control thus far, with a microscopic 3% walk rate on the year. His fastballs are about league average, and Littell needs to place his sinker better to produce better results, but he can get by with his stuff. It’s surprising that he’s available in so many leagues given his hot start and supporting peripherals, but Littell is worth an add in 12-team leagues or deeper.
John Means, Baltimore Orioles – 54% Rostered
5/4 vs. CIN: 7 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 8 K
Means made a big splash in his 2024 debut, firing seven scoreless innings and striking out eight in a win over Cincinnati. It’s been a long road back for Means, who underwent Tommy John surgery in 2022 and only threw 23.2 innings last season. It wasn’t that long ago that Means was a fantasy mainstay, even posting a 3.62 ERA in 26 starts in 2021. Is John Means back, or was Saturday just a high note on what will continue to be a rocky ride?
Originally an 11th-round pick by Baltimore back in 2014, Means rose through the system and became a solid starter for the club. Between 2019 and 2021, Means had a 3.73 ERA and 4.2 K/BB ratio, making him one of the lone bright spots during Baltimore’s losing seasons of the late 2010s and early 2020s. Means works with a four-pitch mix consisting of a four-seam fastball, changeup, slider, and curveball, and all four pitches were on display in this one.
While he has a deep arsenal, anyone familiar with John Means knows that the centerpiece of his repertoire is that changeup. Means dominated hitters with the pitch prior to Tommy John surgery, and he threw the pitch a ton in this start. The changeup was Means’ most-used pitch against Cincinnati, throwing it 36% of the time. He earned eight of his 19 whiffs with the pitch, good for a monster 50% whiff rate. An 83-mph offering, Means’ changeup has a relatively high spin at 2,176 RPM. It also has plus vertical movement and can be wielded effectively to hitters from both sides of the plate, though Means tends to use the pitch more often against righties.
John Means, Nasty 85mph Changeup. 👌 pic.twitter.com/tdnAQlEFOp
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 4, 2024
The changeup wasn’t the only pitch that dazzled from a whiff perspective, either, as Means got 19 total whiffs. Six of those were from his slider, which had a 50% whiff rate like his changeup. An 86.3-mph offering, Means’ slider had similar velocity and movement in this start compared to 2021, his last full season. The slider has proven a strong secondary offering to complement his changeup in the past, and it looked every bit the part and then some in this start.
The changeup and slider looked good for Means in this start, and if the changeup is back, Means has the chance to regain his past form. I am a little skeptical of the sustainability of this strikeout performance, as Means had a 25.8% swinging strike rate with his changeup in this start, but a 15.4% swinging strike rate all time. The same is true of his slider, as Means had a 22.2% swinging strike rate with the pitch in this start, but a 13.3% swinging strike rate all time. He’ll likely regress to the all-time number on each pitch, and if he does, his strikeout rate will likely be around 20-22% instead of the 34.8% we saw in this outing. 20-22% is still solid, and that’s what fantasy managers should expect out of Means over the course of a full year.
Means’ fastball velocity has oscillated over the years, and it was on the lower end for Means in this start at 91.8 mph. Means peaked at 93.8 mph in 2020 but has lived around 91.8 over the past few years when on the field. Means’ fastball is neither exceptional in velocity or spin, but Means does one thing well with it, and that’s induce fly balls.
He has a 50.7% fly-ball rate with his fastball all time, along with a 28.9% infield fly-ball rate. Fly balls are the least likely batted ball type to fall for a hit, so inducing them to this degree should keep hits and BABIP against low. His fly-ball tendencies are especially good in pitcher-friendly Camden Yards, and with a 41-degree average launch angle against in this start, Means hasn’t lost this ability.
Verdict:
This is the best John Means has looked since 2021, and it looks legitimate. Means’ changeup and slider dominated the Reds in this one, and while the 34.8% strikeout rate isn’t sustainable over a full season, Means should have no problems producing an average to above-average strikeout rate this season. His changeup and slider both look as they did pre-Tommy John, which is key for Means as he struggled with maintaining the same velocity and movement with his changeup and slider in 2023. Means also showed off his fly-ball-inducing tendencies in this one, and that is a skill that he seems to have kept despite the injuries.
Altogether, Means could once again be the pitcher he was between 2019-2021. That isn’t a superstar, but it is someone who can maintain a sub-4.00 ERA with good control. He also pitches for a much better Baltimore team, so he should have plenty of chances to get wins this season. Means is a good add in 12-team leagues or deeper, and shouldn’t cost too much FAAB compared to hot prospects like Christian Scott.
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