RADIO
Elliott Baas looks at starting pitchers who turned in surprising starts recently. These SPs could emerge as fantasy baseball waiver wire targets and sleepers for Week 25, or simply mirages.
Welcome back to the "Are You For Real?" series as we dive into Week 25 of the 2024 fantasy baseball season. We've got two interesting right-handers to break down this week. First, we'll take a look at rookie Yariel Rodriguez in Toronto. Then, we'll deep dive into veteran Frankie Montas in Milwaukee.
For those who are not familiar, this is a weekly column where we take starting pitchers who had surprisingly good starts over the past week and put them under the microscope to determine whether they're legit or just smoke and mirrors.
Roster percentages are taken from Yahoo! and are accurate as of September 9.
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Yariel Rodriguez, Toronto Blue Jays – 8% Rostered
2024 Stats (prior to this start): 68.1 IP, 4.61 ERA, 4.45 FIP, 12.2% K-BB%
9/8 @ ATL: 5 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 K
Rodriguez had one of his best starts all season on Sunday, holding the Braves to just one run on two hits over five innings. It was a tough luck no decision for Rodriguez, who is just 1-6 with a 4.42 ERA on the year. Could Rodriguez be turning a corner with this start, or was this just luck?
A native of Cuba, Rodriguez spent the last three years in Japan’s NPB before inking a five-year deal with Toronto in the offseason. Rodriguez was a dominant reliever in Japan, but Toronto wanted to try him as a starter in the big leagues. Rodriguez has a deep enough arsenal to start, with a five-pitch mix consisting of a four-seam fastball, slider, splitter, curveball, and sinker.
The four-seamer has been Rodriguez’s most-used pitch this season, but it wasn’t his most-used pitch on Sunday. That would be his slider, which Rodriguez used 37% of the time against the Braves. This isn’t the first time Rodriguez has featured his slider most frequently. In fact, his slider has been his most used pitch in three of his last four starts.
Digging into the numbers, it’s easy to see why Rodriguez would want to lean on his slider. Batters are hitting just .218 against the pitch along with a .378 SLG and .300 wOBA. The expected stats not only back up this performance, but also suggest that Rodriguez has room for improvement. He has a .197 xBA, .359 xSLG, and .284 xwOBA with the pitch thus far.
An 84.6 mph offering, Rodriguez’s slider is characterized by exceptional spin and horizontal movement. He has a 2,727 RPM with his slider, which puts him in the top 5.3% of slider spin among MLB pitchers this season (min. 250 pitches). It also has 60% more break than the average slider, giving him a sharp offering that dies away from right-handed hitters. Here are a few examples from this start.
That’s just plain nasty, and it’s no surprise that Rodriguez was able to notch seven of his 10 whiffs with the pitch on Sunday. Rodriguez also has a monster 19.6% swinging strike rate and a 37.8% chase rate with the pitch this season.
Rodriguez has a solid 9.2 K/9 this season, but with a pitch this good, he could potentially have an even higher strikeout rate, especially if he’s able to complement the slider with his other secondary pitches.
There is a large disparity between Rodriguez’s other two secondary pitches. One has been excellent, while the other has been pulverized. The splitter has been phenomenal for Rodriguez, as opponents are hitting just .161 against the pitch with a .290 SLG and .223 wOBA.
The expected stats suggest that Rodriguez has been a little lucky, but a .161 AVG against is almost always a little lucky. He has a .240 xBA, .341 xSLG, and .279 xWOBA with his splitter this season. The splitter doesn’t get big strikeout numbers like the slider, but Rodriguez has an incredible -7-degree average launch angle against with this pitch, along with a 76.2% groundball rate.
He primarily throws the pitch to left-handed hitters, but he has mixed it in against right-handed batters as well. He’s only used this pitch 10% of the time thus far, though I’d like to see that splitter usage rise, especially with how poor his curveball has performed.
For opposing hitters, it doesn’t get much juicier than a Yariel Rodriguez curveball. Batters are hitting a whopping .375 against the pitch, along with a comically high .875 SLG and .522 wOBA. The expected stats are technically better, but he still has a .331 xBA, .651 xSLG, and .414 xwOBA with the pitch. He only threw the curveball twice against Atlanta, and that’s a positive trend.
Another positive trend for Rodriguez is only one walk allowed in this start. He’s had severe control issues along with a 10.9% walk rate this season, so it’s nice to see him cut back on free passes. It would really be nice to see him go an outing without issuing a walk at all since Rodriguez has allowed at least one walk in all 18 starts he’s made this season. He does have a more manageable 7.4% walk rate since August 1, but he still needs to have better command on the mound.
There’s definitely some talent in Rodriguez’s right arm, but one major drawback of rostering him is his short leash. Toronto doesn’t seem to trust him, and they yanked him after just 73 pitches despite pitching very well on Sunday. He pitched just three innings in the start before and hasn’t completed six innings since July 6.
He is averaging just barely over four innings per start. That’s part of why he has such a poor record, and he’ll almost never provide wins or quality starts, especially pitching for a losing club like Toronto. He could be a decent source of strikeouts, but he can’t provide much else. He’s a high WHIP pitcher thanks to his walk rate, and it’s hard to trust a rookie with a 4.42 ERA on the year, even if he does have professional experience in Japan.
Verdict:
Rodriguez can be a treat to watch with his electric slider, but he is far from a complete pitcher. He lacks control, doesn’t pitch deep into games, and carries high ratios. There’s some potential here, but Rodriguez has to figure some things out on the mound before he’ll be a fantasy asset. I don’t mind him as a late-round sleeper candidate for 2025, but he’s not usable in 2024.
Frankie Montas, Milwaukee Brewers – 23% Rostered
2024 Stats (prior to this start): 126.1 IP, 4.70 ERA, 4.59 FIP, 10.1% K-BB%
9/6 vs. COL: 6 IP, 2 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 10 K
Montas came to play on Friday night, putting up a season-high 10 strikeouts and a quality start in the loss to Colorado. It was the first time since 2022 that Montas notched double-digit strikeouts, and if he can keep it up the veteran might have some fantasy appeal. Montas does have a respectable 3.92 ERA and 3.59 FIP since being traded to Milwaukee. Is he worth the add?
A longtime member of the Oakland Athletics, Montas was once considered a solid and reliable fantasy option. Unfortunately, he succumbed to injuries and poor performance after being traded to the Yankees and had gone from a strong No. 2-3 starter to an afterthought. Montas works with a five-pitch mix consisting of a four-seam fastball, sinker, splitter, cutter, and slider. He featured his fastballs heavily in this outing, throwing his four-seamer and sinker a combined 56% of the time.
Montas’ most-thrown pitch this season is his four-seamer, but that wasn’t the case on Friday. He used his sinker 34% of the time against Colorado and earned three of his 12 whiffs with the pitch. Montas boasts plus velocity with the pitch at 94.7 mph, and opponents have struggled against the sinker this season.
Batters are hitting .248 against Montas’ sinker with a .376 SLG and .322 wOBA. Those are decent outcomes, but not exceptional. What tends to make or break a sinker in my eyes is the groundball rate, and Montas’ is nothing special.
He has a 52.8% groundball rate with his sinker this season, which is okay but not exceptional. The same is true of his 7-degree average launch angle against and 89.2 mph average exit velocity against. Those numbers aren’t bad, but they aren’t particularly good either. Montas was known for his sinker during his peak in Oakland, but it’s not a special pitch anymore.
The sinker may have lost a bit, but Montas has gotten excellent results with his four-seamer this season. Opponents are hitting just .204 with a .343 SLG and .282 wOBA against Montas’ four-seamer, along with a whopping 21-degree average launch angle. Montas has a 44.2% flyball rate and a 29.5% infield flyball rate with his fastball this season.
Flyballs are the least likely batted ball type to fall for a hit, so it’s not a bad approach to take, although it can be dangerous pitching in places like Cincinnati and Milwaukee. Montas does have an elevated 1.22 HR/9 this season. While that isn’t an untenable home run rate, it’s certainly higher than we’d like to see, especially for a pitcher with middling stuff like Montas.
Not all of Montas’ pitches are middling, however. He does have one plus offering, and that would be his splitter. Batters are hitting .233 against the splitter this season along with a .326 SLG and .265 wOBA. The splitter is also Montas’ best strikeout pitch. He earned four whiffs on eight swings with it in this start, and he has a 17.6% swinging strike rate with the pitch. Montas’ 8.16 K/9 on the season might not be all that impressive, but he does have a 9.7 K/9 with Milwaukee.
Oddly, Montas has deemphasized his splitter since coming to the Brewers. He was throwing it 21.29% of the time with Cincinnati but is throwing it just 11.98% of the time with Milwaukee. Instead, he’s relied more on his sinker. This change in pitch mix is counterintuitive to what I expected to see from Montas, and it’s not a particularly encouraging development.
Montas may be getting better outcomes with Milwaukee, but that doesn't mean it’s sustainable. Montas has a .265 BABIP against since the trade, including a .237 BABIP against his four-seam fastball and a .240 BABIP against his sinker with the Brewers. Montas has been relying heavily on his fastballs since the trade, and I don’t believe either is an exceptional pitch.
The 10 strikeouts were great to see, but these results appear to be Montas taking advantage of a weak Colorado lineup. The Rockies have the second-highest strikeout rate as a team this season, and they have by far the highest strikeout rate of any team on the road this season. The Rockies strike out at a 28.9% clip away from Coors. For context, the next-highest team is the Pirates with a 25.8% road strikeout rate. Bottom line, the Rockies are a bad offense and the veteran took advantage.
Verdict:
Montas is certainly pitching much better since coming to the Brewers, but he’s doing it with an odd approach. He’s leaning on his sinker and four-seamer and relying on a low BABIP to find success. The 10 strikeouts seem like an aberration against one of the worst lineups in baseball. Montas isn’t a bad streaming option in a pinch, but he’s not very exciting either.
He has gone at least six innings in each of his last four starts, so he could be a source of quality starts and potentially wins pitching for a first-place club in Milwaukee. His next start is scheduled for Thursday in San Francisco, which has the 5th-lowest wOBA against right-handed pitching this season.
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