RADIO
Elliott Baas looks at starting pitchers who turned in surprising starts recently. These SPs could emerge as fantasy baseball waiver wire targets and sleepers for Week 20, or simply mirages.
Welcome back to the "Are You For Real?" series as we dive into Week 20 of the 2024 fantasy baseball season. We're headed west this week, looking at two surprising starts from AL West arms. First, we'll break down rookie Joey Estes' quality start against the Dodgers on Friday. Then, we'll look at Yusei Kikuchi's dominant Astros debut against Tampa Bay.
For those who are not familiar, this is a weekly column where we take starting pitchers who had surprisingly good starts over the past week and put them under the microscope to determine whether they're legit or just smoke and mirrors.
Roster percentages are taken from Yahoo! and are accurate as of August 4.
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Joey Estes, Oakland Athletics – 5% Rostered
2024 Stats (before this start): 71 1/3 IP, 4.92 ERA, 4.37 FIP, 11.3% K-BB%
08/02 vs. LAD: 6 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 6 K
It was another quality start for Estes, who has now allowed two or fewer runs in six of his last seven starts. In fact, Estes has a 3.80 ERA over his last eight appearances dating back to June 21, a streak that includes a complete game shutout against the Angels. Estes has been decidedly off fantasy radars all season, but with the young right-hander pitching better over the last six weeks fantasy managers should at least have their interest piqued. Is Estes worth the add, or should we leave him on the wire?
Originally a 16th-round pick by the Braves back in 2019, Estes came to Oakland in the Matt Olson deal back in 2022. Estes wasn’t much of a prospect on a national level, and he was a middling prospect in Oakland’s system. He was ranked as the 14th-best Athletics prospect by Fangraphs in 2024, however, Oakland has one of the league’s weakest farm systems. Of course, there’s opportunity abound for young players in Oakland and Estes has been the beneficiary of a spot in the rotation. Estes works primarily with a four-pitch mix consisting of a four-seam fastball, sweeper, slider, and changeup. He has thrown the occasional cutter and sinker this season, but at just 1.2% usage the pitches don’t play a large role in his approach. Estes leaned heavily on his fastball and sweeper in this start against the Dodgers.
The four-seam fastball was Estes’ favorite pitch on Friday, as he used it 54% of the time. That’s in line with his season-long fastball usage, as Estes has thrown the pitch 54.8% of the time. A 92.6 mph offering, Estes’ fastball doesn’t exactly blow one away with velocity. He does boast above-average spin at 2,393 RPM, along with plus horizontal movement. Estes may not have the velocity, but the pitch has performed well thus far.
Batters are hitting .238 against Estes’ four-seamer along with a .415 SLG and .317 wOBA. Estes succeeds with heavy flyball tendencies. He has a 25-degree average launch angle against his four-seamer along with a 24.4% flyball rate and 27.9% infield flyball rate off the pitch. That can play pretty well in a pitcher-friendly ballpark like Oakland, but is tougher to pull off somewhere that’s more neutral or hitter-friendly.
Home runs might be an issue for Estes. He’s got a manageable 1.16 HR/9 now, but there are a few factors in his profile that suggest that number could rise. First is the sheer amount of flyballs and hard contact Estes is allowing. Estes has a launch angle against of at least 23 degrees on all of his pitches except the sinker and has a 54.6% flyball rate on the year. He also has a 92.4 mph average exit velocity against his fastball and a 42% hard-hit rate against.
One stat that’s really telling is his 5.22 xFIP. xFIP is like FIP, except it uses a league-average HR/FB rate instead of the pitcher’s actual HR/FB rate. This metric suggests that Estes has been lucky in regards to home runs allowed with just a 7.7% HR/FB rate, and that if and when that number normalizes Estes’ ERA could be north of 5.00. Furthermore, Estes had a 2.22 HR/9 at Triple-A before his promotion and had a 2.76 HR/9 at Triple-A last season, so this writer is skeptical that his current 1.16 HR/9 can hold.
Another point against Estes would be his massive home/road splits. It’s actually quite incredible. At home, Estes has a 2.25 ERA in 40 IP, but he has a 7.47 ERA in 37.1 IP on the road. Unsurprisingly, every metric is worse for him on the road, but what’s most interesting is his home run rate. Estes is allowing just 0.68 HR/9 at home but has a 1.69 HR/9 on the road. Maybe it’s a little fluky as Estes has only made 15 appearances thus far, or maybe it’s because Estes is a 22-year-old rookie who feels more comfortable at home, or maybe it’s the ballpark difference (at least to some degree). There’s probably a combination of reasons why Estes has such drastic home/road splits, but the bottom line is that we can’t trust him outside of Oakland.
What about in Oakland? His ERA is good at home, so can we use him there? It’s a risky gambit, to say the least. Sure, Estes has a 2.25 ERA at home, but he also has a 4.88 xFIP and an 81.2% LOB rate at home. He’s been surviving off a .221 BABIP at home as well. If I had to start Estes I’d prefer to do so at home, but I’d prefer not to start him at all.
Verdict:
Estes is young and raw and probably doesn’t have mixed-league relevance at this point in his career. He has extreme flyball tendencies, which can work in his favor in a roomy ballpark like in Oakland, but can also spell disaster on the road or when the ball keeps flying. There’s not a lot of upside in starting Estes either. He doesn’t get strikeouts and he pitches for one of the worst teams in baseball, meaning wins will be hard to come by. I suppose you could start him at home in a pinch, but hopefully, you’ve got better options on waivers.
Yusei Kikuchi, Houston Astros – 49% Rostered
2024 Stats (before this start): 115 2/3 IP, 4.75 ERA, 3.66 FIP, 20.1% K-BB%
08/01 vs. TB: 5 2/3 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 11 K
Kikuchi made a big impact in his Astros debut on Friday, striking out 11 batters over 5.2 innings of work in a no-decision. Kikuchi is capable of big strikeout numbers at times, and it’s not often that a starter with a 10.46 K/9 is available in half of all leagues. His 4.67 ERA keeps his roster rate down, and many fantasy owners don’t want to put up with a volatile headache like Kikuchi. Will he turn a corner in Houston, or is this the same old Kikuchi?
Originally an international signing out of Japan by Seattle, Kikuchi is on his third major league team in Houston. A 6-foot, 205-pound lefty, Kikuchi works with a four-pitch mix consisting of a four-seam fastball, curveball, slider, and changeup. The changeup has been his least used pitch this season, but Kikuchi featured it heavily in this start against Tampa Bay.
Kikuchi normally throws his changeup about 11.6% of the time, but he used it 26% of the time against the Rays. It worked wonders for him, as Kikuchi earned 11 of his 26 (26!) whiffs with his changeup, good for a monster 79% whiff rate. After seeing the results of this start, it’s a wonder that Kikuchi doesn’t throw his changeup more often. Batters have really struggled against the pitch this season, hitting just .180 with a .246 SLG and .193 wOBA off Kikuchi’s changeup. The expected stats align with the actual stats as well, since batters have a .193 xBA, .279 xSLG, and .209 xwOBA off his changeup this season. Here’s an example of the pitch from this start.
That’s some really nasty movement, making the pitch a strikeout weapon for Kikuchi. In fact, he has a 16% swinging strike rate with the pitch this season, making it his best strikeout pitch. The changeup is the best pitch in Kikuchi’s repertoire, and the only drawback is that he can’t use it against left-handed batters. When I say can’t use, I literally mean can’t use. Kikuchi has thrown zero changeups to left-handed batters this season. Of course, most teams will roll out righty-heavy lineups against Kikuchi, much like the Rays did, but it’s still a little concerning that Kikuchi is hamstrung with his best pitch.
Kikuchi does have other weapons to use against lefties, namely his slider, which he threw 32% of the time in this start. Kikuchi’s slider can be a strikeout machine too, with Kikuchi earning nine whiffs on a 60% whiff rate with his slider in this start. Batters have struggled against this pitch as well, with opponents hitting just .241 with a .333 SLG and .311 wOBA off the slider thus far.
The expected stats are also in line with the actual results, as Kikuchi has a .223 xBA, .318 xSLG, and .299 xwOBA with his slider this season. With a 15% swinging strike rate and a 33.5% chase rate, Kikuchi has another solid strikeout pitch at his disposal. While I wouldn’t expect a 50% strikeout rate every game like he had against Tampa Bay, it’s reasonable to expect above-average strikeouts from Kikuchi going forward, especially in starts like this where he can lean on his slider and changeup.
The slider and changeup have been great tools for Kikuchi, but there’s still a big problem in his game, and that’s the fastball. Kikuchi throws decently hard at 95.7 mph, but with mediocre spin and movement, the pitch doesn’t play very well. Batters have smoked his four-seamer for a .296 AVG, .528 SLG, and .368 wOBA. The expected stats are a little better at a .273 xBA, .498 xSLG, and .348 xwOBA, but those numbers don’t exactly inspire hope in the heater.
Opponents are clobbering the fastball for a 90.3 mph average exit velocity against and a 21-degree average launch angle. Kikuchi has struggled with home runs in the past, and those problems will likely follow him to Houston. He even served up a two-run bomb to Dylan Carlson in the first inning of this one. Don’t expect the volatility to vanish just because he’s changed uniforms.
Although he’s been volatile, there’s reason to think Kikuchi can pitch to better ratios than he has thus far. Despite a bloated 4.67 ERA, he has a 3.35 xFIP and 3.42 SIERA. He’s also been on the wrong end of some luck with a .338 BABIP against this season. In order to pitch better Kikuchi needs to do two things. He needs his numbers to normalize to league average, and he needs to rely more on his secondary stuff and less on the fastball. He did the latter in this start, and hopefully, this is a trend that continues. This start represents his highest slider usage and highest changeup usage all season, so perhaps the Astros will have him use this new approach to success. Don’t rush out to blow your entire FAAB on him, but Kikuchi could have some value on his new team.
Verdict:
Kikuchi carved up the Rays on Friday, and he could continue to be a dominant strikeout pitcher going forward thanks to his changeup and slider. His fastball leaves something to be desired and will get him into trouble at times, but plenty of pitchers—especially veterans like Kikuchi—have gotten by deemphasizing a fading fastball in favor of more dominant secondary stuff. Kikuchi has the secondary stuff, and the Astros could just be the perfect club to unlock his full potential. There’s still plenty of risk here so don’t add Kikuchi if you’re protecting ratios, but if you need to make up ground or need strikeouts then Kikuchi is your man.
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