RADIO
Elliott Baas looks at starting pitchers who turned in surprising starts recently. These SPs could emerge as fantasy baseball waiver wire targets and sleepers for Week 14, or simply mirages.
Welcome back to the "Are You For Real?" series, as we dive into Week 14 of the 2024 fantasy baseball season. This week, we're looking at a pair of young right-handers. First, we'll break down top prospect Drew Thorpe's solid start against Detroit on Saturday. Then, we'll look at Tobias Myers' recent hot stretch for the Brewers.
For those who are not familiar, this is a weekly column where we take starting pitchers who had surprisingly good starts over the past week and put them under the microscope to determine whether they're legit or just smoke and mirrors.
Roster percentages are taken from Yahoo! and are accurate as of June 24.
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Drew Thorpe, Chicago White Sox -- 13% Rostered
2024 Stats (Double-A): 60 IP, 1.35 ERA, 2.97 FIP, 17.4% K-BB%
6/22 at DET: 6 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 4 BB, 5 K
Thorpe had the best start of his young career on Saturday, blanking the Tigers for six innings of two-hit ball en route to his first career victory. Thorpe was a pretty big prospect coming into the season, and he’s got a chance to earn a permanent rotation spot with the White Sox. Is Thorpe ready to be the next rookie breakout of 2024, or do struggles lie ahead?
Originally a second-round pick by the Yankees back in 2022, Thorpe was involved in two of the biggest trades we saw last offseason. First, he was shipped from New York to San Diego in the Juan Soto trade, and then he went to the White Sox in exchange for Dylan Cease.
While not the most famous mustachioed rookie pitcher, Thorpe was a highly touted prospect heading into 2024, ranking as the White Sox's third-best prospect by MLB Pipeline and the 45th-best prospect in baseball by Baseball Prospectus. A 6-foot-4, 190-pound righty, Thorpe works with a four-pitch mix consisting of a four-seam fastball, changeup, slider, and cutter.
Thorpe may work with four pitches, but one has always stood out for him, and that is the changeup. An 81.3 mph offering, Thorpe’s changeup is best characterized by its strong vertical movement and relatively high spin. That allows his changeup to die downward and act as a breaking ball. Here’s an example from this start.
Drew Thorpe Changeup pic.twitter.com/6VoiK6O7du
— Elliott Baas (@ElliottBaasBB) June 24, 2024
It’s a nasty pitch, and it’s been Thorpe’s best strikeout pitch as well. He has an 18.5% swinging strike rate with the pitch this season and earned 10 of his 11 whiffs with the pitch in this start. Batters are hitting just .111 against the pitch along with an .095 xBA, .167 SLG, .224 wOBA, and .199 xwOBA.
Scouts raved about Thorpe’s changeup, and it has been as advertised thus far. Thorpe has maintained a 25% or higher strikeout rate throughout his minor league career, and with this pitch, he looks capable of providing a solid strikeout rate at the major league level. He might not be elite, but certainly better than the 13.6% strikeout rate he’s posted through three starts.
So, Thorpe’s changeup is legit, but what about the rest of his arsenal? His most-used pitch is the four-seam fastball, though it’s not a pitch to get overly excited about. Thorpe averages just 90.8 mph with his four-seamer along with a 2,161 RPM spin rate. Both of those are decidedly below average and give Thorpe a rather hittable heater. Opponents are hitting .250 off the pitch thus far, but have a .290 xBA, .500 SLG, .555 xSLG, and .401 xwOBA. Worse yet, batters are crushing his fastball for a 93.6 mph average exit velocity. They’re sending it back nearly 3 mph harder than Thorpe delivers it.
That’s not very sustainable, especially when the pitch has a microscopic 2.1% swinging strike rate. Frankly, this looks like the type of pitch that could get hammered at the major league level. Thorpe never had home-run issues in the minor leagues, so hopefully he can keep the ball somewhat grounded, but overall this is not a strong offering.
Thorpe rounds out his arsenal with a slider and a cutter. The cutter hasn’t been much of a factor at just 6.0% usage in this start and 7.5% usage overall, but the slider has been his go-to third pitch. A slower pitch at 82.1 mph, Thorpe throws the slider softly enough that the pitch is sometimes categorized as a sweeper by Statcast. The pitch is characterized by its strong vertical and horizontal movement, making it a loopier type of slider when compared to the hard slider of someone like Tyler Glasnow.
Thorpe only earned one whiff with the pitch in this start and has just an 8.7% swinging strike rate overall, so it’s a little dicey as to whether this pitch will be an effective bat-misser going forward. Thorpe has done a good job of inducing poor contact with the pitch, as evidenced by his 57.1% fly-ball rate and 36-degree average launch angle. Fly balls are the least likely batted ball type to land for a hit, so a fly-ball-heavy approach isn’t necessarily a bad thing.
What concerns me for Thorpe -- besides lack of track record -- is the 95.7 mph average exit velocity against his slider, along with his homer-friendly home ballpark. As previously mentioned, Thorpe doesn’t have a history of homer issues, but he hasn’t earned our trust on that front, either. All it takes is one hanger to do some serious damage.
And why would that hanger do so much damage? Walks, and lots of ‘em. Thorpe has been issuing free passes like he’s the manager at the local Cineplex. Thorpe has a ghastly 6.91 BB/9 through his first three starts and managed to issue four walks in his most recent game against Detroit.
Walks were never an issue for Thorpe in the minors, but he has a weak fastball that he can’t necessarily attack hitters with, plus he has a pitiful 15.8% chase rate. For context, the lowest-qualified pitcher in MLB has a 25.8% chase rate as of writing this. So, not good for Thorpe. The changeup looks promising, but Thorpe just isn’t there yet for fantasy purposes.
Verdict:
Scouts have been raving about Thorpe’s changeup since his days with the Yankees, and after watching him pitch, it’s easy to see why. Thorpe’s changeup is a wicked pitch that should be able to consistently produce whiffs at the major league level.
Unfortunately, the rest of his game is pretty raw. Thorpe’s fastball is below average in velocity and movement and has been hit hard by opponents. His slider offers a decent third pitch to round out the arsenal but is far from a deadly strikeout weapon.
Thorpe has been issuing an obscene number of walks as a big leaguer as well, and it’s hard to trust a rookie with a -3.0% K-BB%. In deeper leagues, he might be worth a flier, but he’s not 12-team mixed-league material yet.
Tobias Myers, Milwaukee Brewers -- 41% rostered
2024 Stats (prior to this start): 47 IP, 3.26 ERA, 4.66 FIP, 13.8% K-BB%
6/23 at SD: 5 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 3 K
Myers continued his hot streak with another stellar start on Sunday, tossing five innings of one-run ball while picking up his fourth consecutive win. Myers has had an excellent June, putting up a 0.71 ERA over four starts, lowering his season ERA to 3.12. Myers was a nobody coming into 2024, but now he’s on the radar of fantasy managers everywhere. Is Myers the real deal, or just another Toby?
Originally a sixth-round pick by Baltimore back in 2016, Myers has had a long, winding journey to the major leagues. He spent time in the minors with the Orioles, Rays, Guardians, Giants, and White Sox before finding a home in Milwaukee. Myers works with a five-pitch repertoire, consisting of a four-seam fastball, cutter, slider, changeup, and curveball. It may be a deep arsenal, but it’s been all about the fastball for Myers throughout his hot streak, as his usage rose 9 percent in going from 39% to 48% over his last four starts.
Myers has leaned heavily on his fastball over the course of his hot stretch, and opponents have struggled against the pitch. Batters are hitting just .167 against Myers’ fastball over his last four starts, along with a .229 SLG and .167 BABIP. On the year, batters are hitting .191 off the pitch, but have a .244 xBA, .484 xSLG, and .346 xwOBA. On paper, the pitch doesn’t stand out in any way. Myers averages 92.6 mph with his heater along with a 2,197 RPM spin rate, both of which are below league average.
How is Myers producing such good results with the pitch? Weak contact. Batters have an 88.8 mph average exit velocity against this pitch along with a 20-degree average launch angle. Inducing weak fly balls can be a good way to produce outs, especially for a pitcher with underwhelming stuff like Myers. Myers has changed his approach with the pitch during his hot streak as well. Here’s a comparison of his fastball usage prior to the hot streak (top) and during the hot streak (bottom).
He's been keeping the ball down more, which is a good strategy for a pitcher like Myers who can’t blow his fastball past major league hitters anyway. He’s getting the most out of his fastball, which is great to see.
So, Myers is wielding his fastball effectively, but what about his secondary stuff? He throws so many pitches, but do any of them stand out? Myers’ most-used pitch after the fastball is his cutter, which he throws 23.6% of the time. His usage has dipped during his hot stretch, going from 25.84% usage prior to June 7 to 19.46% after June 7.
Opposing hitters enjoy seeing Myers’ cutter, as batters are hitting .308 against the pitch with a .538 SLG and .362 wOBA. Even worse, opponents have a .335 xBA, .598 xSLG, and .395 xwOBA off Myers’ cutter. He threw the pitch 17 times in this start and got zero whiffs with it. Zero. Myers’ favorite secondary pitch has just a 5.4% swinging strike rate overall and an 18.7% chase rate. It’s simply not been an effective pitch for him and he should continue to decrease his reliance on it.
Are any of Myers’ secondary offerings good? His best pitch is probably his changeup, which has a .105 AVG against, along with a .105 SLG and .152 wOBA. Even better, Myers has a .140 xBA, .160 xSLG, and .186 xwOBA with this pitch. He earned four of his seven whiffs with the pitch in this start and has a 17.6% swinging strike rate with the pitch. He throws the pitch exclusively to left-handed hitters, and it may never evolve into a pitch for righties as well. Still, it’s his most promising strikeout pitch.
If you are looking at Myers for strikeouts, you will likely be disappointed. He has a 21.6% strikeout rate this season, which is okay, but he has just an 8.3% swinging strike rate and a 26.4% chase rate. That’s just not good enough at the major league level to consistently produce strikeouts, even at a league-average rate.
Furthermore, Myers has some concerning underlying numbers that should make prospective managers turn away. He’s thrived thanks to a .246 BABIP and 85.8% LOB rate, both of which will regress toward league average given enough time. It’s why Myers has a 4.40 FIP and 4.12 SIERA despite a 3.12 ERA. The numbers look even more suspect during his hot streak, as Myers has a .182 BABIP and a 96.6% LBO rate over his last four starts. Simply put, he’s pitching above his head.
Verdict:
Myers has put together an impressive four-start stretch, catalyzed by his increase in fastball usage. Myers has done a great job of inducing weak contact and fly balls, giving him an exceptional BABIP against. Unfortunately, his stuff leaves much to be desired and he won’t be able to play the low BABIP game forever.
Myers’ fastball is underwhelming in velocity and spin, and his most-used secondary pitch has a 5.4% swinging strike rate. There’s just not a lot to like from a fantasy perspective in this profile. The best thing Myers has going for him is that he pitches for a good team and routinely goes five innings or more, putting him in line for wins and quality starts. He doesn’t offer much in terms of strikeouts and his ERA estimators predict rising ratios over time. He’s a low-end, matchups-based streamer.
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