X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Are You For Real? Surprising Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Starts From Cole Irvin and Alec Marsh

Cole Irvin - Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Pickups, Draft Sleepers, Pitcher Rankings

Elliott Baas looks at starting pitchers who turned in surprising starts recently. These SPs could emerge as fantasy baseball waiver wire targets and sleepers for Week 8, or simply mirages.

Welcome back to "Are You For Real?", a weekly column where we take starting pitchers who had surprisingly good starts over the past week and put them under the microscope to determine whether they're legit or just smoke and mirrors.

This week we're looking at a pair of AL hurlers who have gotten the job done despite lower strikeout rates. First, we'll look at Baltimore's Cole Irvin, who's been on a tear over his last five starts. Then, we'll break down Alec Marsh's hot start for the Royals.

Roster percentages are taken from Yahoo! and are accurate as of May 13.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Cole Irvin, Baltimore Orioles – 38% Rostered

2024 Stats (prior to this start): 34.2 IP, 2.86 ERA, 3.33 FIP, 10.9% K-BB%

5/10 vs. ARI: 5.2 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 6 K

Irvin has been rolling as of late, this time holding the Diamondbacks to just two runs over 5.2 innings en route to his fourth straight victory. A solid start from Irvin, who allowed an earned run for the first time since April 15 in this start. Irvin is 4-1 with a sparkling 2.90 ERA, which looks like a huge step forward from the 4.42 ERA he had last season. Has Irvin turned a corner, or will this hot streak fade?

Originally a fifth-round pick by Philadelphia back in 2016, Irvin was never much of a prospect. His lack of prospect pedigree was due to his lack of velocity. Irvin was throwing 90 mph when he was coming up, although he’s added a little velocity and now throws 92 mph. Velocity has never been Irvin’s game, with Irvin sporting a deep arsenal of secondary pitches. Altogether, he throws a four-seam fastball, sinker, cutter, changeup, and curveball.

Irvin may use a lot of different pitches, but the curveball has stood out as his most-used pitch this season. Irvin has thrown his curveball 28.5% of the time thus far. A low vert, 79 mph offering with low spin, Irvin’s curveball is more of a slurve than a true curveball. Batters have fared alright against the pitch with a .267 AVG, but Irvin has limited hitters to a .333 SLG and .292 wOBA with his curveball. Irvin doesn’t miss many bats with his curveball, but he’s a soft contact king, allowing an 85.6 mph average exit velocity against his curveball. He also has a solid 43.8% groundball rate and a 25% infield flyball rate with the pitch. It’s a passable offering that should induce outs, though he may be limited in the strikeout department.

The curveball may be Irvin’s most used pitch, but is it his best? Probably not, as those honors belong to his changeup. A relatively hard changeup at 85.2 mph, Irvin has dominated hitters with this pitch thus far. Batters are hitting .154 against Irvin’s changeup along with a .154 SLG and .138 wOBA. The changeup is also Irvin’s best strikeout pitch, with Irvin sporting a 15.7% swinging strike rate and 35.6% chase rate with his changeup thus far. It remains to be seen whether Irvin can sustain these results on his changeup. A .291 xBA, .440 xSLG, and .314 xwOBA portend doom, and the pitch is allowing a 91.4 mph average exit velocity against. He currently has a .190 BABIP against his changeup but a .268 career BABIP against, further suggesting that Irvin’s changeup is overperforming.

Another pitch that’s performed well for Irvin would be his sinker, a pitch he throws 18.8% of the time. Batters are hitting just .219 against the pitch with a .375 SLG and .316 wOBA. Unlike his changeup, the expected stats don’t suggest regression is coming. Irvin has a .220 xBA, .329 xSLG, and .297 xwOBA with his sinker this season. Batters also have an 85.9 mph average exit velocity and a 7-degree average launch angle against the pitch. Irvin is hammering the pitch in the zone and up in the zone more this season. His sinker zone rate is currently at 72.1%, 10% higher than his career mark. Here’s a comparison of his sinker usage this season compared to previous seasons.

2019-2023:

2024:

He's attacking hitters high and away this season, and it’s helped him produce a 55.9% groundball rate with the pitch, up nearly 13% from his career average. Overall, Irvin’s groundball rate is at a career-high 49.2% and his home run rate is at a career-best 0.67 HR/9. Irvin has become more of a groundball pitcher, and this represents a legitimate improvement if he can maintain this success.

Verdict:

There are some little things to like about Irvin’s game, such as his changeup whiff rate or improved groundball rate on his sinker, but the total package lacks upside. Irvin has a double-digit swinging strike rate with just one of his pitches, the changeup, and has a pitiful 6.8% swinging strike rate and 17.5% strikeout rate overall. Strikeouts aren’t everything, but Irvin will be deficient in that category all season long. He’s been riding a .194 BABIP over his last four starts and has a .267 BABIP on the season. On the bright side, Irvin pitches for a good team and should have plenty of win opportunities throughout the season. Wins and volume, that’s what Irvin provides, making him a decent streamer in standard leagues or a back-end starter in deeper leagues.

 

Alec Marsh,  Kansas City Royals – 15% Rostered

2024 Stats (prior to this start): 26.2 IP, 2.70 ERA, 3.25 FIP, 9.3% K-BB%

5/10 @ LAA: 5.1 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 7 K

Marsh returned from the IL in style Friday night, allowing just one run on four hits over 5.1 innings in Anaheim. Marsh had been rolling prior to being placed on the injured list, going two straight starts without allowing a run. Altogether, Marsh has allowed one or fewer runs in four of his six starts this season and owns a sparkling 2.53 ERA on the year, yet he remains a low-rostered player. Does Marsh deserve some love, or is he swamp water?

Drafted in the competitive balance section of the second round back in 2019, Marsh wasn’t known as a prospect on a national level, but he did rank as highly as third in Kansas City’s system by FanGraphs in 2023. A solid 6-foot-2, 220 lbs righty, Marsh works with a five-pitch mix consisting of a four-seam fastball, slider, curveball, sinker, and changeup. Even though he throws a lot of different pitches, Marsh incorporates them all somewhat equally in his game, throwing each pitch at least 13.1% of the time. His most used pitch is his four-seam fastball, which Marsh throws 35.9% of the time.

Marsh peppered the Angels with fastballs on Friday, throwing the pitch 43% of the time and earning 10 of his whopping 19 whiffs with the pitch. A mid-90s offering, Marsh has averaged 93.9 mph with the pitch on the year, but his velocity was up in this start at 94.5 mph. He also threw his hardest MLB pitch ever at 98.4 mph. Marsh’s fastball is also a high spin offering at 2,502 RPM, and has plus horizontal break. Marsh has been challenging hitters more with the pitch this season, with the zone rate on his four-seamer going up more than 10% from 50% in 2023 to 60.7% in 2024. Here’s a heatmap comparison of his fastball usage.

2023:

2024:

He's still attacking hitters high, but he’s keeping the pitch in the upper part of the zone more frequently. Batters seem to have a hard time squaring up his new approach, as Marsh has allowed a 79.9 mph average exit velocity against and a 19-degree average launch angle against with this pitch. That means he’s inducing plenty of weak flyballs, which is practically a synonym for an out.

His chase rate has improved despite (or perhaps because of) his increased zone rate, going from 21.6% to 25.8%. His swinging strike rate with the fastball has also gone up from 9.4% to 11.9% this season. With this approach, Marsh may continue to get more swing-and-miss from his fastball going forward. He won’t be a Tyler Glasnow, but I think he can do better than his current 18.5% strikeout rate.

If this strikeout rate were to improve, it would likely be due to improvements in his slider, which is his best strikeout pitch. A sharp 86.6 mph offering, Marsh’s slider has slightly above-average vertical movement and spin at 2,506 RPM. Batters have struggled with the pitch, hitting just .182 with a .455 SLG and .221 wOBA. The expected stats support this performance with a  .197 xBA, .397 xSLG, and .268 xwOBA. Marsh has a solid 14.9% swinging strike rate and 32% chase rate with the pitch thus far. It’s definitely not a dominant, wipeout slider that’ll have Marsh racking up the Ks, but again he could be better than his current 18.5% strikeout rate.

Then there’s the luck of it all. Ernest Hemingway wrote that you make your own luck, but Hemingway didn’t have access to FanGraphs. Even a cursory look at Marsh’s page will let you know that he’s been fortunate. Marsh currently sports a .234 BABIP against, an 80.1% LOB rate, and a 5.4% HR/FB rate. That’s a big reason why he has a 4.21 xFIP and 4.34 SIERA despite a 2.53 ERA. Marsh’s .266 xBA this season is actually higher than the .257 xBA he had last season when he had a 5.69 ERA. It’s true that Marsh is making his own luck to some degree, as the weak contact he’s induced with his fastball would lend itself to a lower BABIP, but we cannot expect him to maintain a .239 BABIP against all season. Marsh has certainly made some improvements and can be a better pitcher this season than he was last season, but there’s no denying that Marsh has been lucky through his first six starts and will likely regress to an ERA above four.

Verdict:

Marsh has produced some great results thus far, and he has done a good job of inducing weak contact and whiffs with better fastball location. Marsh has gotten a solid number of whiffs on his fastball and slider this season, and he could have a better strikeout rate going forward. He’s also cut down on the walks big time this season, going from 11.4% last year to 6.9% this year. Luck has played a significant role in Marsh’s early season success, and regression is likely coming for him at some point. He just won’t be able to sustain a .239 BABIP, 5.4% HR/FB rate, and 80.1% LOB rate all season long. Marsh is firmly in the streamer category, and I’d mostly try and use him against soft opponents like the Mike Trout-less Angels. His next matchup comes against Seattle, who is ranked 25th in wOBA and last in strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers this season, making it a fine matchup for Marsh.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Griffin Conine

To Have Shoulder Surgery On Tuesday
Luke Keaschall

Twins Prospect Luke Keaschall Suffers Broken Forearm
Logan Gilbert

Leaves Friday's Start With Forearm Tightness

Vikings Select Tai Felton To Finish Day 2

Seahawks Select Quarterback Jalen Milroe With The 92nd Pick Overall

Browns Select Dillon Gabriel 94th Overall

Packers Pick Savion Williams At No. 87 overall

Steelers Snag Kaleb Johnson In Round 3

Broncos Select Wide Receiver Pat Bryant With The 74th Overall Pick

Texans Select Jaylin Noel With 79th Pick

Lions Select Wide Receiver Isaac TeSlaa With The 70th Overall Pick
Jack Leiter

To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
Garrett Mitchell

Makes Early Exit
Luke Keaschall

Removed Early On Friday
Blake Snell

Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Brendan Donovan

Back In Action On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Coby Mayo

Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF