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Welcome back to "Are You For Real?", a weekly column where we take starting pitchers who had surprisingly good starts over the past week and put them under the microscope to determine whether they're legit or just smoke and mirrors.
We've got two NL East arms to look at this week. First, we'll deep dive into Braxton Garrett's CGSO in Arizona. Then, we'll look at Trevor Williams' hot start in the nation's capital.
Roster percentages are taken from Yahoo! and are accurate as of May 27.
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Braxton Garrett, Miami Marlins – 41% Rostered
2024 Stats (prior to this start): 9.2 IP, 10.24 ERA, 3.65 FIP, 21.3% K-BB%
05/24 @ ARI: 9 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 6 K
Garrett had a night to remember on Friday, throwing his first career complete-game shutout against Arizona. It was Garrett’s first victory and quality start of the season, and he now has a 5.30 ERA through three starts. Was this a turning point for Garrett, or will he return to mediocrity?
Originally the seventh overall pick back in 2016, Garrett was a highly regarded pitching prospect coming up in Miami’s system, even ranking as high as the 43rd prospect in baseball per MLB Pipeline in 2017. Garrett works with a six-pitch mix consisting of a four-seam fastball, slider, cutter, sinker, changeup, and curveball. He may throw a lot of different pitches, but Garrett relies on some more than others, as he throws his four-seamer just 7.5% of the time and his curveball just 3.4% of the time. It’s primarily been sinker, slider, and changeup for Garrett this season, and that was the case in this outing.
Garrett’s most used pitch this start was his sinker, which he threw 36% of the time. It’s also his most used pitch on the year, with Garrett throwing the sinker 38.1% of the time. An 89.8 mph offering, Garrett’s sinker has plus movement and has been excellent at inducing groundballs this season. On the year, batters have a -6.0-degree average launch angle against Garrett’s sinker, along with a 72.2% groundball rate. Garrett’s propensity for inducing grounders has served him well, as opponents are hitting just .125 against his sinker, along with a .167 SLG and .192 wOBA.
While the outcomes on his sinker have been superb thus far, it’s unlikely that Garrett can sustain such a high groundball rate over the course of a full season. He has a 59.3% groundball rate with his sinker all-time and had a 55.7% groundball rate with the pitch last season. Batters are pulverizing his sinker for a 95.6 mph average exit velocity as well, so Garrett could be in big trouble if and when hitters begin elevating his sinker more frequently. Garrett isn’t locating the pitch any differently and has a similar zone rate this season compared to last, so he’s not doing anything differently enough to suggest his batted ball outcomes are sustainable.
So, maybe the sinker is overperforming to a degree. But what about his slider? Garrett’s slider was his most touted pitch as a prospect. It was the pitch that was going to make Garrett’s big-league career. So, how’s it doing? It could be better. Batters may be hitting just .211 off Garrett’s slider, but he has a .404 xSLG and .336 xwOBA with the pitch. Furthermore, batters have crushed the slider for a 94.6 mph average exit velocity and a 27.3% line drive rate. These numbers wouldn’t be so bad if Garrett could miss a bat or two, but he has a pitiful 9.9% swinging strike rate with his slider this year. He’s had better-swinging strike rates in past seasons, so perhaps Garrett can bring it up, but for now, this isn’t the dominant pitch once expected of Garrett, and he won’t be a big strikeout threat on the mound.
One pitch that has proven to be a big strikeout threat this season is Garrett’s changeup. An 83 mph offering thrown exclusively to right-handed hitters, Garrett’s changeup excels in vertical movement and low spin, averaging just 1,448 RPM this season. Batters are hitting .273 off the pitch but it has a .228 xBA and .230 xwOBA. Garrett is also surrendering weak contact with the pitch, as opponents have just an 86.9 mph average exit velocity against the pitch, over an 8.0 mph difference compared to his sinker. Most impressive, Garrett has a 25% swinging strike rate and a 53.6% chase rate with the pitch thus far. It’s a painfully small sample size, and he won’t be able to maintain numbers this good, but it's still an encouraging trend for Garrett.
Those are Garrett’s primary pitches, and if you aren’t blown away, you aren’t alone. Garrett’s stuff neither pops off the page nor to the eye, and he profiles as a low-dominance innings-eater type when healthy. Given that he’s arguably on the worst team in the majors, wins and support might be tough to come by. Even though this was an impressive outing for Garrett, the upside just doesn’t seem there for him.
Verdict:
A good example of a jack of all trades, master of none type of starting pitcher, Garrett throws six different pitches, but none of them are particularly dominant or special. His best pitch, the slider, has underperformed in the strikeout department thus far, and one shouldn’t expect exceptional strikeout numbers from Garrett going forward. His changeup has performed well thus far, but the 25% swinging strike rate and 53.6% chase rate will not be sustainable over a longer period of time. There’s nothing special and nothing that stands out about Garrett. He’s an okay streaming option in a pinch, but he has low upside and is on a bad team, limiting his fantasy appeal.
Trevor Williams, Washington Nationals – 40% Rostered
2024 Stats (prior to this start): 46 IP, 2.35 ERA, 2.80 FIP, 11.6% K-BB%
05/25 vs. SEA: 5 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 8 K
Williams came to play on Saturday, tying a season-high with eight strikeouts over five innings in a no-decision against Seattle. Williams now has a sparkling 2.29 ERA on the season in 51 innings, ranking sixth in the National League among qualified starters. He’s not getting the same attention as, say, Reynaldo Lopez in Atlanta, but Williams has been every bit as dominant. Has the journeyman right-hander found another level, or will Williams come crashing back to earth?
A longtime Pittsburgh Pirate, the 32-year-old Williams has also spent time with the Cubs, Mets, and now Nationals. He was brought in primarily to eat innings as Washington undergoes a transitory period, with Williams on nary a fantasy radar coming into the year. His first season with Washington didn’t go well, as Williams posted a 5.55 ERA in 30 starts last season. Heck, Williams’ career as a starter hasn’t gone all that well, as Williams has a 4.42 ERA all-time pitching from the rotation. What has gotten into Williams? Are there real changes here that point toward sustainable success?
The biggest, most glaring change for Williams this season has been his incorporation of a sweeper into his game. He began toying with a sweeper last season, but he’s made the pitch his second-most used offering this season at a 19% usage rate. A slower offering at 77.1 mph, Williams’ sweeper is best characterized by plus vertical and horizontal movement, causing the pitch to move downwards as it approaches the plate.
Trevor Williams, Dirty 77mph Sweeper. 😨
7th K thru 4 pic.twitter.com/eKKh5kY4II
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 7, 2024
Batters have struggled mightily with the pitch this season, with opponents hitting just .136 with a .182 SLG and .197 wOBA. The expected stats align with his actual performance as well, with Williams putting up a .118 xBA, .235 xSLG, and .212 xwOBA with his sweeper this year. Williams even has impressive strikeout numbers with the pitch, posting a 48.1% whiff rate with his sweeper thus far. This pitch looks like the real deal, and Williams seems to have added a dangerous weapon to his arsenal with the sweeper.
Williams’ sweeper has been great thus far, but what about the rest of his arsenal? Is there anything else to like? Velocity lovers won’t think so, as Williams averages a meager 89.1 mph with his four-seamer and 87.8 mph with his sinker. Batters have struggled against both pitches thus far, especially the four-seamer. On the year, opponents are hitting .200 with a .271 SLG and .240 wOBA. The expected stats suggest that Williams has earned these outcomes as well, as Williams has a .202 xBA, .338 xSLG, and .269 xwOBA against his four-seamer this season.
Can Williams maintain such positive outcomes with his four-seamer? I’m not so sure, as it’s taken a 12.3% reduction in line drive rate and a .258 BABIP against for Williams to reach a .200 BA against thus far. He’s allowing a 91.2 mph average exit velocity and a 17-degree average launch angle against, plus opponents hit .283 with a .563 SLG against his fastball last season. He’s not doing anything different from a velocity, movement, or location perspective, so it seems possible that the other shoe is going to drop on Williams’ fastball at some point.
Speaking of the other shoe-dropping, one area where Williams has been exceptionally lucky would be the home run department. Williams has a 0.35 HR/9 this season but had a 2.12 HR/9 last season and a 1.32 HR/9 for his career. He has been the beneficiary of a 3.8% HR/FB rate, something that will not be sustainable over the course of a full season. He had a 17% HR/FB rate last season and has a 12.9% HR/FB rate for his career. Expect Williams to surrender more homers going forward. A similar argument could be made against his .275 BABIP, which is 41 points lower than last season and 25 points lower than his career mark. Williams has been lucky, plain and simple, and that luck will run out eventually.
Verdict:
Williams has made some legitimate changes, most notably being the addition of a sweeper to his arsenal. This new pitch has proven to be a strong strikeout weapon for Williams, something his game was sorely lacking coming into the year. Williams is hardly a strikeout pitcher now, but his 21.4% strikeout rate is 2.5% higher than his career mark. He’s also been quite lucky this year, with batters hitting just .200 off his sub-90 mph fastball. He’ll likely experience BABIP regression with his fastball and home run regression overall, which will drive up Williams’ ERA and WHIP. That doesn’t make him totally useless in fantasy, rather it turns him into a viable streaming option, when coming into the year no one would’ve touched Williams in a mixed league. He’s not 2.29-ERA good, but he’s modestly improved over previous seasons.
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