Are You For Real? Surprising Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Starts From Bailey Falter and Griffin Canning

June 6, 2024

Elliott Baas looks at starting pitchers who turned in surprising starts recently. These SPs could emerge as fantasy baseball waiver wire targets and sleepers for Week 11, or simply mirages.

Welcome back to "Are You For Real?", a weekly column where we take starting pitchers who had surprisingly good starts over the past week and put them under the microscope to determine whether they're legit or just smoke and mirrors.

We've got two low-rostered arms on hot streaks to look at this week. First, we'll break down Bailey Falter's recent run with Pittsburgh. Then, we'll deep dive into Griffin Canning's hot stretch in Los Angeles.

Roster percentages are taken from Yahoo! and are accurate as of June 3.

Bailey Falter, Pittsburgh Pirates – 12% Rostered

2024 Stats (prior to this start): 58.1 IP, 3.55 ERA, 4.73 FIP, 8.4% K-BB%

05/31 @ TOR: 6 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 5 K

Falter was dominant on Friday, firing six scoreless innings in a tough luck no decision in Toronto. It was a continuation of a hot stretch for Falter, who has a 1.67 ERA over his last four starts and a 3.22 ERA on the year. He has been spectacular as of late, but can he keep it up, or will Bailey falter?

Originally a fifth-round pick by Philadelphia back in 2015, Falter was traded to Pittsburgh in 2023 in a minor swap for Rodolfo Castro. Falter was not much of a prospect coming up through Philadelphia’s system. In fact, he was listed as an “other prospect of note” in Fangraphs' top 39 Phillies prospects in 2020, not even cracking the ranks. Falter works with a five-pitch mix, consisting of a four-seam fastball, curveball, sinker, slider, and split-changeup. The split-changeup has not been a big part of Falter’s approach this season as he’s thrown the pitch just 1% of the time. However, the remaining pitches have built a solid first two months for Falter.

Falter is a heavy fastball user by modern baseball standards. He throws either his four-seamer or sinker 66.9% of the time, over 20% higher than league average fastball usage for starters which is 46.8%. It’s hard to blame Falter for relying on his fastball so often this season as opposing batters are hitting just .158 against his four-seamer with a .242 SLG and .212 wOBA. Those are surprising results given the poor measurables on Falter’s fastball. Falter averages just 91.6 mph with his four-seamer along with a mediocre spin rate of 2012 RPM. He succeeds by inducing weak contact, with opposing batters averaging an 85.9 mph average exit velocity and a 22-degree average launch angle against Falter’s four-seamer this season. That translates to a solid 15.2% line drive rate, 48.5% flyball rate, and 35.4% infield flyball rate. Such a favorable batted ball distribution has gifted Falter with a .167 BABIP against his fastball this season.

If the root of a pitcher’s success is a .167 four-seamer BABIP, fantasy managers should be skeptical of that pitcher’s ability to maintain success going forward. League average BABIP this season is .286, so it’s likely that regression is coming for Bailey Falter’s four-seam fastball, even considering his aptitude for inducing weak contact. He’s had similar results with his sinker, which has a .188 BA against, but a .334 xBA, .755 xSLG, and .472 xwOBA against. Falter has managed a microscopic .146 BABIP against his sinker this season despite a 98.1 mph average exit velocity and a 15-degree average launch angle against. Falter’s sinker only averages 91.8 mph, so batters are returning the offering nearly 7.0 mph harder than Falter delivers it. Falter doesn’t even have a good groundball rate with his sinker at just 38.6%. He doesn’t throw his sinker nearly as much as his fastball (16% vs. 51%), but the numbers suggest that both pitches have overperformed, especially the sinker. Expect that BABIP to rise, and when it does, so will Falter’s ratios.

So, Falter’s fastballs are performing well, but in an unsustainable manner. What about his secondary stuff? Can he sling sliders and curveballs past hitters? Not consistently, and Falter’s surface stats reflect as much. Falter has a pitiful 15.3% strikeout rate this season. His season high is eight on April 23 against Milwaukee, but outside of that start, Falter hasn’t eclipsed more than five strikeouts in a game. His best strikeout pitch has been his slider, which has an underwhelming 12.8% swinging strike rate this season, along with a 22.9% chase rate. Falter had just eight whiffs in his recent start against Toronto, only one of which came from his slider. Worse yet, opponents are hitting .321 against Falter’s slider with a .496 xSLG and .358 xwOBA. It’s a below-average offering that won’t be able to produce consistent swings and misses.

Falter’s curveball hasn’t fared much better. Batters are hitting .241 against the pitch, but have a .517 SLG, .463 xSLG, and .307 xwOBA as well. Falter had a whopping zero whiffs with his curveball in this start, and has a pathetic 8.5% swinging strike rate and 19.7% chase rate with his curveball this season. Strikeouts are not Falter’s game, and we can respect a pitcher who gets it done sans whiffs, but this just isn’t that impressive for fantasy purposes. Falter’s 5.32 K/9 is the second-lowest mark among qualified pitchers behind just Dakota Hudson, who is 2-7 with a 5.02 ERA. In fact, the bottom four pitchers all have ERAs north of five except for Falter.

Verdict:

There is a trifecta of stats to look at when quickly evaluating a pitcher’s luck, which are BABIP, LOB rate, and HR/FB rate. For most pitchers, these numbers normalize toward league average over the course of the season. For Falter, he has a laughably low .195 BABIP (league average .286), a 78.5% LOB rate (72.5%), and a 9.8% HR/FB rate (11%). Simply put, the Baseball Gods have favored Bailey Falter through the first two months of the season. He’s done a good job inducing weak contact, especially with his four-seamer, but he won’t be able to ride that to a 3.22 ERA all season. Plus, there’s just not a lot of upside with Falter. He gives you no strikeouts and pitches for a middling team with a shaky bullpen. He might be worth a hot hand ride in deeper leagues, but most can do better than Falter in 10 and 12-team mixed leagues.

Griffin Canning, Los Angeles Angels – 12% Rostered

2024 Stats (prior to this start): 56.2 IP, 5.08 ERA, 5.37 FIP, 7.2 K-BB%

06/02 @ SEA: 6.2 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 4 K

Canning had one of his best outings of the season on Sunday, going a season-high 6.2 innings while allowing just one run on four hits in a tough-luck loss against Seattle. Canning has been pitching much better as of late, as the 28-year-old right-hander has a 2.22 ERA over his last five starts. Canning has shown us flashes like this before, but has anything changed? Can(ning) he parlay his recent hot stretch into something more, or will he fizzle out?

A second-round pick by the Angels back in 2017 out of UCLA, Canning was expected to be a reliable mainstay in the Angels rotation. He has been a mainstay, having made double-digit starts for the Angels each year since 2019, but reliability is another story. Over that time Canning has a 4.59 ERA, 4.66 FIP, and 1.55 HR/9 in 399.2 innings. Canning was something of a sleeper coming into 2024, with many thinking he could grow upon a career-best 25.9% K rate and 3.80 SIERA. Canning works with a five-pitch mix, consisting of a four-seam fastball, sinker, changeup, slider, and curveball.

Canning’s most used pitch this season has been his four-seam fastball, but fastball usage is trending downwards for him over his hot five-game stretch. More and more, Canning has been relying on his changeup, and Canning threw his changeup a season-high 38.7% against Seattle. An 88.5 mph offering, Canning’s changeup is characterized by its strong horizontal break, diving down and away from left-handed hitters.

Griffin Canning, Dirty 89mph Changeup...and Sword. ⚔️ pic.twitter.com/TY5MHQhNAa

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 2, 2024

Batters have struggled against this pitch, with opponents hitting just .221 against Canning’s changeup along with a .325 SLG and .266 wOBA. Canning has also earned a decent number of whiffs with the pitch, sporting a 15.7% swinging strike rate and a monster 42.1% chase rate with the pitch this season. The pitch is most effectively wielded against left-handed hitters, but Canning has increased his usage against hitters from both sides of the plate, especially when ahead in the count. Overall, his changeup usage has risen eight percent over his five-start stretch, with a 16% increase in usage against left-handed hitters and a 10% increase in usage against right-handed hitters when ahead in the count. Canning seems to view the pitch as his strikeout pitch, and it’s served him well thus far. It remains to be seen whether he can keep this up, but this is a positive trend that makes him an interesting arm on waivers.

In addition to his changeup, Canning has one other solid secondary offering, which is the slider. Batters have had a hard time squaring it up, as opponents have a .267 AVG, .400 SLG, and .327 wOBA off Canning’s slider this season. Those numbers don’t seem all that impressive by themselves, but the expected stats paint a better picture for Canning. He has a .225 xBA, .341 xSLG, and .284 xwOBA with his slider this season. The slider has been Canning’s main breaking ball since he arrived in the big leagues, and it’s been an important part of his repertoire this season. Canning’s slider isn’t an elite offering by any means, but he boasts above-average vertical movement with the pitch, along with a solid 14.6% swinging strike rate and 37.1% chase rate. Between the changeup and the slider, Canning seems capable of more than his current 16.4% strikeout rate.

So, the secondary stuff looks solid, but what about the fastball? Canning has experienced a velocity increase this season, going from 93.6 mph over his first seven starts to 94.2 mph over his last five outings. Unfortunately, that really hasn’t changed the outcomes for Canning. Batters were hitting .268 with a .634 SLG in his first sevens starts, and are hitting .268 with a .610 SLG over his last five starts. Home runs have long been an issue for Canning, and he’s already served up eight homers with his four-seam fastball this season. Opponents have a .300 xBA, .596 xSLG, and .419 xwOBA against Canning’s four-seamer thus far, and the only thing that’s kept his fastball outcomes as good as they’ve been is a .237 BABIP against. The extra 0.6 mph isn’t enough to make up for a lack of movement and spin, making Canning’s fastball decidedly mediocre.

Then there comes the crux of the issue, luck. Yes, Canning is throwing his changeup more frequently, but how much better has he actually been? The 2.22 ERA over his last five starts is impressive, but it comes with a 5.37 FIP, which is higher than his overall FIP. Canning has allowed 1.6 HR/9 over this stretch along with a pitiful 15.8% strikeout rate and 6.7% K-BB%. He’s allowed five homers over his last four appearances, all of which were solo shots. He’s also had a .250 BABIP and a 100% LOB rate over that period. One-hundred freaking percent! Canning has danced over landmines during this hot stretch, and it won’t last, even with changes to his pitch mix.

Verdict:

It’s always exciting when a pitcher has a hot streak and there’s a big, glaring change they’ve made during that stretch. For Canning, it’s posting a 2.22 ERA over his last five starts while increasing his changeup usage by 8%. That alone should be case closed, as his changeup is fueling success, right? Not quite for Canning, who’s got some ugly peripherals behind his hot streak. He’s still allowing homers, he’s still not missing enough bats, and his fastball still stinks. The increase in changeup usage is a nice start, but until that translates to whiffs and reduced homers we can’t buy into him. He’s a risky streamer at best, and an albatross in your rotation at worst.

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