X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Analyzing Pitcher Fly Ball Data for Fantasy Baseball 2023

martin perez fantasy baseball rankings draft sleepers MLB injury news waiver wire pitchers

Jon Anderson looks into the data to see which fantasy baseball pitchers benefited most from good and bad fly-ball luck to get a feel for who is set up for regression in either direction in 2023.

Pitchers don't have much of a say about what happens after a pitch they throw is put into play. There is a ton of randomness that occurs after a hitter makes contact with a ball, and that makes a lot of pitching statistics hard to trust.

Getting ahead of this gives us an advantage. We can have a pretty good feeling about which pitchers were lucky and unlucky, and therefore what direction their future statistics are more likely to go in.

Today, I want to zoom in on fly-balls allowed. We will go over the category, look at some numbers and correlations, and then dig up some applicable takeaways for the 2023 fantasy season.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

League Data

Here is a breakdown of what happened when a fly ball was hit in 2022.

Outcome %
Out 74%
HR 15%
2B 5%
1B 5%
3B 1%

So you are mainly looking at a flyout or a home run. The event with the biggest impact on the stats is the home run. Here's how that rate has changed over the last five years:

We see the spike in 2019 with the juiced ball, and then a 2020 season that was so short it should just be ignored - and then a decline in this category over the last two seasons.

Note that I am using Baseball Savant's classification model for this, not FanGraphs. You will get a number closer to 10% if you use FanGraphs because they count infield fly balls as fly balls while Savant does not.

 

What Do Pitchers Control?

The next question to ask is do the rules apply to everyone evenly? Should we expect a 15% HR/FB for every pitcher, or are some pitchers better or worse than others at this? Let's just take a look at the top 10 highest HR/FB rates from 2021 and see how they followed up in 2022:

Player 2021 HR/FB 2022 HR/FB
JT Brubaker 31.1% 15.7%
Patrick Corbin 27.7% 18.9%
Wil Crowe 25.5% 13.7%
Yusei Kikuchi 25.0% 36.5%
Josiah Gray 24.6% 26.2%
Erick Fedde 24.2% 17.8%
Tarik Skubal 24.0% 11.1%
Dylan Bundy 23.8% 13.7%
Kris Bubic 23.8% 16.8%
Vince Velasquez 23.8% 12.8%

Of the top 10, only Gray and Kikuchi got worse, and most of them saw significantly lower numbers the following year. If we cluster them together, we find that pitchers that went above 20% in 2021 average 16% in 2022. The pitchers who were under 10% in 2021 averaged 17% in 2022. The correlation coefficient here is 0.17 - which means the two lists are not related.

This means that a pitcher has very little to nothing to say about what HR/FB they allow - and it's best to just assume 15% for everybody in the future.

 

Park Data

The one thing that does stay constant year-to-year is park factors (unless they change the dimensions of parks in the offseason, which is becoming more and more common). The worst place to allow a fly ball over the last two seasons has been Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati. 20% of the fly balls there have gone for homers. At the bottom of the list is Comerica Park in Detroit where only 11.2% of fly balls have gone for a homer (note: Comerica is changing their dimensions in a hitter-friendly way this offseason).

Here is the full data on that:


You can see steady domination by Cincinnati. You can also see what a big difference park changes can make, as Camden Yards went from 22% (second-highest) to 12.5% (sixth-lowest) with that left field wall change.

This should lead us to project a rate above 15% for Hunter Greene and a much lower than 15% for Brady Singer - just to take a quick example there.

 

Pitcher Standouts

Since we know that we should be regressing the extremes toward the mean, now we can look for these extremes and upgrade or downgrade them accordingly. It's important to note that the rate of allowing fly balls is something a pitcher controls. K% is very steady year-to-year (correlation around 0.7) and so is FB% allowed (correlation around 0.65). If you're striking out 30% of the hitters you face and earning a 50% ground-ball rate, there is very little difference that can be made by the HR/FB because you're just not allowing many balls in play. We will take this into account moving forward.

What I did now is basically replay the 2022 season using a regressed HR/FB for each pitcher. I did include park factors here, so we are still penalizing or rewarded pitchers for where they pitched.

The long and short of it is I found how many fly balls each player allowed and then came up with an expected home run total based on that 15% HR/FB, adjusted for the home ballpark (I only took half the overall effect since pitchers pitch about half their games at home). First, I'll show you the biggest differentials in the negative frame - these are pitchers that allowed fewer homers than they were expected to.

Pitcher K% FB% HR/FB HR xHR Diff
Martin Perez 20.6% 21.4% 6.5% 8 19 11
Max Fried 23.3% 21.6% 8.8% 10 19 9
Alek Manoah 22.9% 27.1% 10.3% 15 24 9
Kevin Gausman 28.3% 26.3% 10.1% 13 21 8
Ross Stripling 20.7% 24.1% 8.2% 8 16 8
Adam Wainwright 17.8% 25.2% 9.3% 14 22 8
Tyler Anderson 19.5% 27.4% 9.7% 14 22 8
Chris Flexen 16.2% 32.6% 9.7% 14 22 8
Patrick Sandoval 23.7% 22.1% 8.6% 8 15 7
Nick Nelson 22.5% 25.4% 2.0% 1 8 7
Justin Verlander 27.8% 28.5% 9.4% 12 19 7
Johnny Cueto 15.7% 27.6% 9.9% 14 21 7

Holy cow on Martin Perez! Giving up 11 extra homers would mean something like 15-20 extra earned runs. If we add 15 earned runs onto his total, it takes his ERA from 2.89 to 3.57.

At this point, I realize that I'm basically just talking about xFIP. Perez's xFIP was 3.80 - so yeah, it checks out.

Fried and Manoah are also super notable here as pitchers who had elite ERA marks with lower strikeout rates. Fried has been doing this long enough that maybe we just have to admit that he's solved the puzzle of soft contact, but that hasn't really been true in HR/FB for him as he allowed a 16% mark in 2021, a 27% mark in 2019, and a 27% mark in 2018 - so he's been all over the place there.

Manoah put up a 15% HR/FB in 2021 and then brought that down in 2022 to what you see above. More potential bad news for him is that the Rogers Centre is changing a bit this offseason, and if it makes any difference, it will likely be in the hitters' favor. Manoah is young and skilled enough to cancel out this regression with a higher strikeout rate - and maybe we should just expect that to happen, but it's a bit alarming to see him pop up this high on the list.

Now, let us look at the other end of the spectrum - the bad-luck pitchers:

Pitcher K% FB% HR/FB HR xHR Diff
Josiah Gray 23.8 33.6 26.2 37 23 -14
Yusei Kikuchi 27.4 24.0 36.5 23 10 -13
Robbie Ray 27.4 28.9 21.7 31 22 -9
Bruce Zimmermann 15.3 27.6 26.8 19 10 -9
Charlie Morton 28.2 28.1 22.6 28 20 -8
Elvin Rodriguez 17.6 32.4 36.4 12 4 -8
Mike Mayers 20.2 32.3 29.4 15 8 -7
German Marquez 19.3 24.7 20.9 29 22 -7
Mike Minor 16.9 29.2 23.7 23 16 -7
Gerrit Cole 32.4 28.6 21.7 30 23 -7
Adrian Martinez 20.5 26.1 25.0 12 6 -6
Kirk McCarty 16.5 29.4 31.4 11 5 -6
Joe Musgrove 24.9 22.8 19.3 22 16 -6
Elieser Hernandez 21.7 35.4 23.5 16 10 -6
Zach Thompson 16.6 21.8 21.6 19 13 -6

The top two players here also gave up a ton of homers on fly balls last season, and we saw them both in the first table we cited here. Maybe that means that something these guys are doing is making their pitches much easier to square up, that's certainly possible. Figuring that out right now doesn't seem very important in these two cases since neither of these guys is being drafted in most leagues right now - although Gray does still pique some interest with his former prospect pedigree and the good whiff rates he's posted in his young career.

Ray, Morton, Cole, and Musgrove are the only obviously fantasy-relevant pitchers on this list, and it's likely they all benefit from regression in 2023.

Do you want the full data? Of course, you do! Here it is, all 429 pitchers that allowed at least 25 fly-balls last year along with the rest of the numbers we've cited above. The "FBHR" column is how many homers they allowed on fly balls. It might not exactly match their HR-allowed totals since you can allow a home run on a line drive as well. Check it out, enjoy it, and send me your thoughts and takeaways - and I'll talk to you later on!

 



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Vinnie Pasquantino24 mins ago

Sitting On Tuesday
Clarke Schmidt36 mins ago

Throws Three-Inning Sim Game
Sean Manaea46 mins ago

Shut Down For Two Weeks
David Bednar56 mins ago

Optioned To Triple-A
Jake McCarthy1 hour ago

Back In The Lineup Tuesday
Zach Neto1 hour ago

Starting Rehab Assignment On Tuesday
Jo Adell1 hour ago

Starting On Tuesday
Nick Robertson1 hour ago

Astros Acquire Nick Robertson From Blue Jays
Iván Herrera2 hours ago

Ivan Herrera Sitting, Pedro Pages Will Start At Catcher Tuesday
Francisco Lindor2 hours ago

Returns To The Lineup On Tuesday
Detroit Lions2 hours ago

Alim McNeill Could Miss Start Of Regular Season
Christian Encarnacion-Strand2 hours ago

Not In Reds Lineup Tuesday
Jesse Chavez2 hours ago

DFA'd, Braves Select Zach Thompson To MLB Roster
Tennessee Titans2 hours ago

Justin Hardee Sr. Returning To Titans
Washington Commanders3 hours ago

Brandon Coleman Moving To Right Tackle For Commanders
Adam Ottavino3 hours ago

And Yankees Agree On One-Year Deal
Raheem Blackshear3 hours ago

Returning To Carolina
Kirk Cousins3 hours ago

Not Expected To Attend Voluntary Offseason Training
NFL3 hours ago

NFL Ownership Votes To Move Kickoff Touchbacks To 35-Yard Line
Olli Määttä3 hours ago

Olli Maatta A Game-Time Call On Tuesday
Jordan Greenway3 hours ago

Remains Sidelined On Tuesday
Dallas Cowboys3 hours ago

Cowboys Willing To Make Micah Parsons The Highest-Paid Non-QB
Jordan Staal3 hours ago

Doubtful For Wednesday
Matt Roy3 hours ago

Not Traveling With Team
Geno Smith3 hours ago

Raiders Working On Extension With Geno Smith
Chris Godwin4 hours ago

Buccaneers Optimistic Chris Godwin Will Be Ready For Week 1
Josh Norris4 hours ago

Not Traveling With The Team On Tuesday
Los Angeles Rams4 hours ago

Coleman Shelton Expected To Start Again In 2025
Brady Tkachuk4 hours ago

Not Playing On Tuesday
Los Angeles Rams4 hours ago

Rams Open To Drafting A Quarterback
Kyren Williams4 hours ago

Rams To Discuss Long-Term Deal With Kyren Williams
Aaron Rodgers4 hours ago

Signs "Pointing" Toward Aaron Rodgers Signing With Steelers
Brock Purdy4 hours ago

49ers Optimistic On Getting Extension Done With Brock Purdy
Sam Hilliard5 hours ago

Outrighted To Triple-A Albuquerque
Trea Turner5 hours ago

Appears As Pinch-Hitter On Monday
Dominic Smith5 hours ago

Returning To Yankees On Minor-League Deal
Lance Lynn5 hours ago

Announces His Retirement
Michael Petersen5 hours ago

Angels Designate Michael Petersen For Assignment
Devin Williams5 hours ago

Yankees Place Devin Williams On Paternity List
Hogan Harris5 hours ago

Optioned To Triple-A
Jordan Spieth5 hours ago

Needs To Find Consistency At TPC San Antonio
Yu-Min Lin5 hours ago

Set To Participate In Extended Spring Training
Jake Knapp6 hours ago

Making First Appearance At Valero Texas Open
Michael Kim6 hours ago

Looking To Find The Magic Again In San Antonio
Tommy Fleetwood6 hours ago

Is Nearly A Must-Play At Valero Texas Open
Tony Finau6 hours ago

Hoping For Better Approach Play In San Antonio
Eric Cole6 hours ago

Trending In Right Direction Ahead Of Valero
Cole Anthony8 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Tuesday
Jerami Grant8 hours ago

Likely To Miss Another Game Tuesday
Anfernee Simons8 hours ago

Iffy For Tuesday's Game
Scoot Henderson8 hours ago

Unavailable Tuesday
Deandre Ayton8 hours ago

Out Against Hawks
AJ Green8 hours ago

May Miss Another Game Tuesday
Kyle Lowry8 hours ago

Picks Up A Questionable Tag
Tyrese Maxey8 hours ago

Remains Out Against Knicks
Quentin Grimes9 hours ago

Good To Go Tuesday
Casey DeSmith10 hours ago

Sharp In Monday's Victory
Mason Marchment10 hours ago

Tallies Two Helpers On Monday
Adam Klapka10 hours ago

Tallies Two Points In Shootout Victory
Ivan Fedotov10 hours ago

Sharp Against Nashville
Matvei Michkov10 hours ago

Continues Hot Stretch On Monday
Luke Hughes10 hours ago

Scores Goal, Adds Assist In Victory
Sam Stevens19 hours ago

Enjoys Nice Result In Houston
PGA19 hours ago

J.T. Poston Seeks To Contend At Valero Texas Open
Ochai Agbaji19 hours ago

Resting On Tuesday
RJ Barrett19 hours ago

To Be Rested Tuesday Night
Immanuel Quickley20 hours ago

Returning To Action Against Bulls
Jakob Poeltl20 hours ago

Available On Tuesday
Jonathan Kuminga20 hours ago

Uncertain For Tuesday's Game
Christian Braun20 hours ago

Listed As Probable For Meeting With Timberwolves
Aaron Gordon20 hours ago

Tagged As Questionable For Tuesday
Jamal Murray20 hours ago

Iffy For Tuesday
LeBron James20 hours ago

Ready To Play Against Rockets
Nikola Jokić20 hours ago

Nikola Jokic Expected To Play Against Timberwolves
Trae Young21 hours ago

Likely To Face Portland
Bradley Beal21 hours ago

Could Return On Tuesday
Denny McCarthy21 hours ago

Keeps Making Cuts But Needs To Make More Putts
Brian Harman21 hours ago

Off To A Subpar 2025 So Far
Ilya Samsonov23 hours ago

Nursing An Upper-Body Injury
Tomas Hertl23 hours ago

To Sit Out At Least One More Week
Garnet Hathaway24 hours ago

Rejoins Flyers Lineup
Erik Johnson24 hours ago

Available Monday
Rasmus Ristolainen24 hours ago

Not Expected To Return This Season
Ryan Preece24 hours ago

Has Three Straight Top-10 Finishes For First Time In His Career
Colton Sissons24 hours ago

Likely Out For Rest Of The Season
NASCAR24 hours ago

Bubba Wallace After Third-Place Finish At Martinsville: "What a Great Day"
Jonathan Marchessault24 hours ago

Day-To-Day With Lower-Body Injury
Todd Gilliland1 day ago

Has Mistake-Free Day At Martinsville, Grabs Another Top-10 Finish
Brandon Moreno1 day ago

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Steve Erceg1 day ago

Losses Third Consecutive Fight
Drew Dober1 day ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres1 day ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Harry Hall1 day ago

Bounces Back In Houston Last Week
Denver Broncos1 day ago

Denver To Take A Running Back In The Draft
CJ Vergara1 day ago

Gets Submitted
Ryan Fox1 day ago

Showing Improvement Heading Into The Valero Texas Open
Édgar Cháirez1 day ago

Edgar Chairez Gets Submission Win At UFC Mexico City
Courtland Sutton1 day ago

"No Timeline" On Courtland Sutton Extension
Vince Morales1 day ago

Drops Decision At UFC Mexico City
Raul Rosas Jr.1 day ago

Gets Decision Win At UFC Mexico City
New York Jets1 day ago

Jets To Wait On Contract Extensions For Garrett Wilson, Sauce Gardner
Saimon Oliveira1 day ago

Still Winless In The UFC
David Martinez1 day ago

Wins His UFC Debut
Jameson Williams1 day ago

Detroit To Exercise Jameson Williams' Fifth-Year Option
Kevin Borjas1 day ago

Earns His First UFC Win
Brandon Aiyuk1 day ago

49ers Expected To Hold Brandon Aiyuk
Ronaldo Rodríguez1 day ago

Ronaldo Rodriguez Suffers His First UFC Loss
Joel Dahmen1 day ago

Scores Top-20 Finish At Texas Children's Houston Open
Jacob Bridgeman1 day ago

Had Some Rest Heading Into The Valero
Sami Valimaki1 day ago

Finishes Fourth At Texas Children's Houston Open
Maverick McNealy1 day ago

Finishes Tied For 32nd At Texas Children’s Houston Open
Tom Kim1 day ago

Finishes Tied For 36th At Valspar Championship
Rickie Fowler1 day ago

Finishes Tied For 52nd At Texas Children’s Houston Open
Bud Cauley1 day ago

Finishes Tied For Fourth At Valspar Championship
Sam Burns1 day ago

Misses The Cut At Valspar Championship
Daniel Berger1 day ago

Finishes Tied For 20th At The PLAYERS Championship
Treylon Burks1 day ago

Unlikely To Be Ready For Training Camp
Keenan Allen1 day ago

Chargers Not Ruling Out Reuniting With Keenan Allen
Christopher Bell1 day ago

Powers His Way To A Second-Place Finish At Martinsville
Chase Elliott1 day ago

Strong Martinsville Performance Ends With A Top-Five Finish
Kyle Larson1 day ago

Collects A Top-Five Finish At Martinsville
William Byron1 day ago

Places 22nd After Struggles At Martinsville
Joey Logano1 day ago

Claims His First 2025 Top-10 Finish After Up-And-Down Performance
Tyler Reddick1 day ago

Fails To Place In The Top 10 At Martinsville
Joseph Woll1 day ago

Stands Tall On Sunday
UTA1 day ago

Alex Kerfoot Leads The Way In Sunday's Victory
Denny Hamlin2 days ago

Silences Doubters After Crew-Chief Change
Ty Gibbs2 days ago

Earns Best 2025 Finish At Martinsville Despite Failing Cool Suit
Ross Chastain2 days ago

Has A Great Day At Martinsville
Chase Briscoe2 days ago

Has Solid Run At Martinsville
Erik Jones2 days ago

Disqualified At Martinsville For Weight Violation
Josh Berry2 days ago

Has Top-10 Upside At Martinsville
Joey Logano2 days ago

Don't Overlook Joey Logano This Weekend
Ryan Preece2 days ago

Could Get First Three-Race Top-10 Streak Of His Career
Chase Elliott2 days ago

Looking To Continue Great Runs At Martinsville
Christopher Bell2 days ago

Wins Pole At Martinsville, But Can He Stay Up There?
Ryan Blaney2 days ago

Fast In Practice But Skeptical About Car
Denny Hamlin2 days ago

New Crew Chief Has Terrible Martinsville Record
Steve Erceg4 days ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Brandon Moreno4 days ago

A Favorite At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres4 days ago

Set For Co-Main Event
Drew Dober4 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Mexico City
Joe Pyfer4 days ago

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Kelvin Gastelum4 days ago

Set For Middleweight Matchup
Vince Morales4 days ago

In Dire Need Of Victory
Raul Rosas Jr.4 days ago

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Saimon Oliveira4 days ago

Looks For His First UFC Win
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF