Three AL Outfielders Set to Break Out in 2020

March 1, 2020

Kipp Heisterman looks at three young American League outfielders who he expects to have breakout seasons in 2020 for fantasy baseball.

The purpose of this article, as the title suggests, is to identify three American League outfielders who have shown the potential to have a breakout season heading into 2020. These will be players who were likely on waivers at some point in your league during 2019 and may or may not have been added down the stretch.

In 2020, these three outfielders should be able to contribute to fantasy teams from Jump Street. The requisites for the players in this article are to be non-rookies, have shown the ability at some point in their career to provide meaningful fantasy value, and they must be in the American League.

Now that the ground rules have been laid out, let's take a look at three outfielders who could significantly help your fantasy team in 2020.

Ramon Laureano, Oakland Athletics

Ramon Laureano is a solid breakout candidate who can provide value in several categories. He started to have a minor breakout in 2019 when he slashed .288/.340/.521 with 24 HR, 67 RBI, 79 R, and 13 SB. He did this in just 123 games (434 at-bats) thanks in large part to a shin injury that cost him the entire month of August. A deeper look into his metrics can help us understand what we can expect for a full season in 2020.

Laureano has the talent to provide fantasy owners with both power and speed, which is a relatively rare commodity in fantasy baseball. In 2019, he showed his power by smacking 24 home runs, which he was able to do thanks in large part to a 9.7% barrel rate, 89.5 mph exit velocity, .487 xSLG, and 40.4% hard-hit rate. Each of these ranked him solidly above league average in just his first "full" season. While he did strikeout 25.6% of the time, it was a lower rate than he put up in 2018 (28.4%) and can likely be expected to decline as he gets more comfortable in the major leagues as he averaged a 23.7% strikeout rate in the minors.

Laureano also provides speed to go with his power and that was evidenced by his 13 stolen bases in 2019. He was able to nab 13 bases thanks in large part to his sprint speed of 28.5 ft/sec, which ranked him in the 84th percentile, or 104th overall. He has always had the speed tool as noted by his 100 stolen bases throughout 395 games in the minors. This averages out to 41 stolen bases per 162 games, so we should certainly expect bigger things on the basepaths in his future.

Laureano is also projected to hit second in the Athletics lineup, which is a lineup that scored the eighth-most runs (845) in baseball in 2019. Batting second should only add value to Laureano as he will have plenty of chances to drive runs in, score runs, and run wild on the bases. He is a prime breakout candidate and people are taking notice as his ADP has now crept inside the top 100.

Oscar Mercado, Cleveland Indians

Oscar Mercado is another outfielder who is in a similar mold as Ramon Laureano albeit with a little less power, but an increased threat to steal. He flashed this ability in his 2019 rookie campaign by slashing .269/.318/.443 with 15 HR, 54 RBI, 70 R, and 15 SB. He managed to do this in 438 at-bats after getting called up in the middle of May. What can he do with a full season under his belt? A look at his advanced power and speed metrics should give us a glimpse.

In 2019, Mercado's power metrics were not exactly what you would hope to see as he fell below league average in barrel rate (4.1%), exit velocity (86.5 mph), xSLG (.403), and hard-hit rate (33.9%). Despite these subpar metrics, Mercado was still able to hit 15 home runs in 115 games. If he can improve upon these in 2020, he could certainly surpass the 20 home run threshold. There is solid reasoning to believe he can improve as well. He had an above-average zone contact rate of 86.8% and below average chase rate of 27.5%. This tells us he is making wise decisions at the plate and this was reinforced by his 17.4% strikeout rate, which is very good considering 2019 was Mercado's first year in the big leagues. We could certainly expect him to cut down on this as he continues to grow accustomed to pitching at the highest level. For reference, his strikeout rate in the minor leagues was just 16.3%.

One area where Mercado can continue to provide plenty of value is on the basepaths. In 2019, Mercado stole 15 bases while only being caught four times. He was able to do this thanks in large part to his blistering speed. He has a sprint speed of 29.5 ft/sec, which ranked him in the 97th percentile and was good for 20th overall in baseball. He also showed the flare for stealing bases in the minors as he nabbed 201 bases over 626 minor league games, which averages out to 54 stolen bases per 162 games. Given this information, we could certainly see 20 home run power combined with 30-plus stolen base potential in the near future.

Mercado, similar to Laureano, is projected to bat second in the Indians lineup. The Indians only managed to rank 16th in total runs scored in 2019, but have added the likes of Cesar Hernandez and a full season of Franmil Reyes. By all accounts, this lineup should be much better from the start as opposed to the 2019 lineup, which means Mercado should have plenty of opportunities to score and drive runs in as well as steal bases at a high clip. His ADP has also risen recently as he is now going at 125 overall, which makes him a 10th-round pick in most 12-team mixed leagues.

Kyle Tucker, Houston Astros

Kyle Tucker is an interesting breakout candidate that I am going out on a limb by predicting. He has all the potential in the world as noted by his fifth overall selection by the Houston Astros in the 2015 MLB Draft. He has minimal big league exposure as he has only played in 50 games (131 at-bats) throughout two seasons. That being said, he showed promise with his metrics in 67 at-bats last season and could be in store for a solid campaign in 2020. His status this spring is worth monitoring, however, as he is competing with Josh Reddick for the everyday right field job and Reddick is in the final year of a four year $52 million contract. Dusty Baker has been quoted as saying the shorter the competition goes, the more it will be in Tucker's favor to win the job. Therefore, this is something to monitor and keep in mind when making a final decision on Tucker.

Tucker's advanced metrics in a small sample size in 2019 were impressive. He put up a 12.8% barrel rate, 92.0 mph exit velocity, .523 xSLG, and 48.9% hard-hit rate. All of these metrics were WELL-ABOVE league average and the barrel rate and xSLG are especially impressive for such a young talent. These metrics helped him knock four home runs in just 67 at-bats. He has also shown this power throughout the minors as he homered 95 times throughout 525 games, which would translate to approximately 29 home runs over 162 games. Keep in mind that Tucker is also just 23 years old, so he is likely just starting to tap into his power skillset.

Tucker, like the other two outfielders mentioned here, should provide a ton of speed for fantasy owners. In those 67 at-bats in 2019, he managed to steal five bases, which is a solid return. In the minors, he was known for stealing as he stole 121 bases in 525 games, which translates to 37 steals per 162 games played. He was also only caught 34 times in the minors and was not caught at all in his five attempts last season.

It is difficult to project where Tucker will hit in an Astros lineup that scored the third-most runs (920) in baseball in 2019 due to the uncertainty of his position battle with Josh Reddick. However, if he wins the job, his potential is through the roof. Therefore, it is crucial to monitor his status this spring to determine if he comes away with a starting gig. The industry appears to favor Tucker as he currently has an ADP of 165, which makes him a 13th round pick in 12-team mixed leagues. He can be a solid value at this spot assuming he comes away with the job.

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