X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

AL Outfielders Ready to Break Out in 2021

Kipp Heisterman identifies AL outfielders who could break out in 2021 for fantasy baseball. These OF could be undervalued sleepers in upcoming drafts.

In previous seasons, outfielder has been one of the deepest positions to find top-end talent as well as deeper talent. In 2021, this does not appear to be the case as there are so many question marks and risks in the current top 50 based on ADP and throughout the entirety of drafts. It becomes even more uncertain when you break it down into AL vs. NL outfielders.

This article will take a deeper look into AL outfielders who provide higher upside than their current ADP might suggest. These are not guys who you will find at the top of drafts but are not necessarily guys you will find at the end of drafts. They are outfielders that should outperform their ADP by several spots and are in a prime position to break out in 2021.

The outfielders we will look into today include Franmil Reyes, Nick Solak, Randy Arozarena, and Josh Naylor. A strong glance into their historical data and advanced metrics should show exactly why they fit the category of breakout candidates.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Franmil Reyes, Cleveland Indians

Franmil Reyes AKA Franimal is being considered as a breakout candidate for the second season in a row. While he did not technically break out in the shortened 2020 season, he did find some success as he slashed .275/.344/.450 with nine HR, 35 RBI, and 27 R across 211 AB. The power with Franmil is very real as he smacked 37 HR in 2019 and has very strong power metrics, which is precisely why he should be highly considered heading into 2021.

The power metrics tell us that Franmil is an absolute beast. In 2020, he posted a solid exit velocity of 92.4 mph, which ranked him in the top nine percent of the league. He also posted a hard-hit rate of 44.9%, which placed him in the 79th percentile of the league. One other power metric where Reyes performed well was with his barrel rate (12.9%), where he ranked in the top 16% of the league.

Another area of Reyes' game to look forward to in 2021 is his ability to hit the ball to all fields. While a majority of his bombs have actually been hit to the opposite field, he has shown a consistent ability to go to left field when necessary as noted by his spray chart.

While Reyes does have some flaws in his game, including a career strikeout rate of 28.4%, he will provide fantasy players with a plethora of power without sacrificing too much in the way of average as he is also a career .263 hitter. With a full season ahead of him in 2021, 40 bombs are definitely within range. He currently has an ADP sitting around 140, which means he is going around the middle of the 11th round. While it is more than fair to draft him here, snagging him near the end of the 10th round or even slightly sooner should return plenty of value as well.

 

Nick Solak, Texas Rangers

I wrote quite a bit about Nick Solak in early pre-season articles in 2020 and think he would have had a solid campaign had he been given a full 162-game season. That being said, I think he has a solid opportunity to break out in 2021, given that he still slashed .268/.326/.344 with two HR, 23 RBI, and seven SB. While there is still much to be desired when it comes to Solak's power, his ability to put the ball in play combined with his speed is why he has serious potential heading into 2021.

Solak stole seven bases in 2020 across 233 PA. He ranked 29th in the league in terms of stolen bases. He provides so much value here based on his sprint speed of 28.6 ft/sec, which ranked him in the 91st percentile of the league.

Solak has also shown great plate discipline for such a young player. In 2020, he posted a whiff rate of just 19.1%, which ranked him in the top 16% of the league. This directly translated to him posting a strikeout rate of just 18%, which placed him in the top quarter of the league. It should also be noted that he only posted a 7.7% walk rate in 2020, but this is fresh off an 11.1% rate in 2019, so it could be an outlier as he also posted an 11.4% rate throughout his minor league career.

Solak currently has an ADP of 185, which means he is currently being drafted in round 15 of 12-team leagues. He should provide much more value than a 15th round pick as he is also eligible at second base and third base in many leagues. Look to take him at least one round early in drafts and feel confident being able to shift him around your lineup.

 

Randy Arozarena, Tampa Bay Rays

Randy Arozarena is going to be a very popular target heading into 2021 as he is being touted as a strong break-out candidate. Most of the hype stems from his 2020 postseason performance, where he crushed 10 HR in 20 games. He also had a relatively solid regular season as he slashed .281/.382/.641 with seven HR, 11 RBI, 15 R, and four SB in just 64 AB. He provides a unique combination of power and speed, which is why his potential is so great heading into 2021.

Statcast tells us that Arozarena has a sprint speed of 28.8 ft/sec, which ranked him in the 93rd percentile and 32nd overall in the league in 2020. He managed to steal the aforementioned seven bases and was also a threat in the minors as noted by his 61 stolen bases through three minor league seasons.

He also provides plenty in the way of power metrics. In 2020, he posted a 14% barrel rate, 90.3 mph exit velocity, and 44.2% hard-hit rate. He had most of his success against the fastball, however, as he hit all seven bombs off fastballs and also posted a .684 xSLG against them. He struggled against breaking balls though, as he posted just a .185 xSLG with zero extra-base hits against them. He will certainly need to improve upon these numbers in 2021, and if he does, he could be an absolute menace.

Arozarena currently has an ADP of 71, making him a late fifth-round and even early sixth-round pick in most 12-team leagues. If he can adjust to breaking balls, he could provide value at a much higher level in 2021 and should be looked at as an early fifth-round candidate.

 

Josh Naylor, Cleveland Indians

The Indians were pretty high on Josh Naylor in 2020 as he was a key piece in the Mike Clevinger deal. Naylor will likely rotate between the outfield and first base, which means he will provide added flexibility on fantasy rosters. In 2020, he slashed .247/.291/.330 with just one HR, six RBI, and 13 R across 98 AB. While these stats certainly do not jump off the page, there is hope he could turn it up in 2021 with regular playing time.

Naylor was once a top 100 prospect, so the ability is certainly there for him. However, he has only seen 350 AB over his first two big-league seasons and only saw 97 AB in the shortened 2020 season. Looking at his 2019 power metrics, we see that he posted an exit velocity of 89.6 mph and a hard-hit rate over 36%. These numbers do not jump off the page, but they are certainly respectable for a first-year player. In 2020, he cut down on his strikeouts as he went from a strikeout rate of 22.9% to a rate of 11.5%. This is definitely something you want to see from a player in their progression.

The bottom line with Naylor is that he has the potential to break out in 2021 and is basically being given away in drafts with a current ADP of 380. This means he is being drafted in the middle of the 31st round (or not at all) in 12-team leagues. He is worth a flier as your final pick in drafts. Place him on your bench for a few weeks to start the season, and if he does not perform, it did not really cost much to try him out.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Griffin Conine

To Have Shoulder Surgery On Tuesday
Luke Keaschall

Twins Prospect Luke Keaschall Suffers Broken Forearm
Logan Gilbert

Leaves Friday's Start With Forearm Tightness

Vikings Select Tai Felton To Finish Day 2

Seahawks Select Quarterback Jalen Milroe With The 92nd Pick Overall

Browns Select Dillon Gabriel 94th Overall

Packers Pick Savion Williams At No. 87 overall

Steelers Snag Kaleb Johnson In Round 3

Broncos Select Wide Receiver Pat Bryant With The 74th Overall Pick

Texans Select Jaylin Noel With 79th Pick

Lions Select Wide Receiver Isaac TeSlaa With The 70th Overall Pick
Jack Leiter

To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
Garrett Mitchell

Makes Early Exit
Luke Keaschall

Removed Early On Friday
Blake Snell

Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Brendan Donovan

Back In Action On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Coby Mayo

Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF