Air Yards Analysis - Risers for Week 4

September 23, 2018

Mark Wemken breaks down the top air yards risers at wide receiver (and tight end) heading to Week 4 of the 2018 NFL season to help fantasy football owners identify the positions sleepers.

The 'Air-Yards' metric is an extremely useful tool when analyzing how wide receivers are used. The concept was created by then-RotoViz contributor Josh Hermsmeyer, who has since launched his own website, AirYards.com. The majority of the data I discuss in this article was originally produced there, and I strongly encourage you to check out the site if you haven't already.

Simply put, air-yards tell us how a receiver is earning his receiving yards and how his team is consistently using him. If a player racks up a ton of air yards, or possesses a high percentage of his teams, we can conclude he is being regularly targeted downfield. There's a useful correlation between air-yards and overall fantasy points, and for the obvious reason you're probably thinking. The more air-yards a player collects, the more likely he is to, or has already hit one of those home-run fantasy plays that are worth double-digit fantasy points.

The weekly goal of this article will be to break down and discuss the metric, and discover who is set to break out based on their air-yards data.

Air Yards Risers Heading into Week 4

John Brown - Baltimore Ravens

Going into Week 4, only Julio Jones and DeAndre Hopkins had more total air-yards than John Brown. That's no longer the case thanks to Adam Thielen's monstrous TNF performance. Regardless, it's a bit surprising to see Browns name that high up in the air-yards rankings given how easy he was to acquire in drafts this past summer.

Brown has a high ceiling, and it's likely we'll see it flashed once again in Week 4 in this divisional matchup versus the Pittsburgh Steelers. I can't remember the last time I've seen an implied total for this game over 49.5, but the line is currently set for a shootout at 52.5. Brown's 38-percent share of his teams air-yards coupled with his 17-percent target share (second on team) makes him a strong DFS play this week, and he's even a candidate for flex-appeal in season long.

Ted Ginn - New Orleans Saints

As a result of Michael Thomas's impeccable start to 2018, it's easy to forget how the team still views their 'situational deep-threat' Ted Ginn Jr. Ginn is only warranting 14-percent of the target market right now, but that's with Thomas and Alvin Kamara vacuuming a whopping 61-percent of the teams total targets. First off, it's very unlikely that unreal volume for both players continues. At the very least, Kamara's share is sure to decline once Mark Ingram returns.

Despite the lack of volume, Ginn trails Thomas by just 15 total air-yards, or two-percent of the air-yards market. With the defense playing significantly under expectation through the first three games, it's only fair to anticipate another shootout in Week 4. The New York Giants haven't surrendered any WR1 performances yet, but they haven't played an offense nearly as potent as the Saints so far. This game is expected to be high-scoring, and I for one want my exposure to it through the cheaply-priced and adequately used Ginn.

Antonio Callaway - Cleveland Browns

Antonio Callaway was worthy of a roster-stash the second Josh Gordon was shipped to New England for a bag of footballs. He became even more interesting the more we saw how Cleveland intends to use him. Not counting Gordon, Callaway has seen 23-percent of his teams air-yards; second on he team behind Jarvis Landry. Callaway also leads the team in aDOT at 16.6. On top of all of this, he'll be getting a a boost at quarterback with first-round pick Baker Mayfield officially named the starter for Week 4.  That's the good news.

The bad news is, he ranks tied for third in target share with Rishard Higgins at just 15-percent. David Njoku has currently warranted a slightly (and I mean slightly) larger share of the usage so far with a 16-percent piece of the target market. Volume, and the fact his QB will be making his first career start as a pro are significant reasons to keep Callaway stashed for at least another week. I wholeheartedly expect Landry to vacuum a significant chunk of the receiving usage, leaving little for the rest of the skill-position players on the Browns.

Callaway is a must-buy in all formats, but that doesn't make him a must-play in Week 4 on the road against the Raiders.

Taylor Gabriel - Chicago Bears

I genuinely couldn't decide if I wanted to put my thoughts on Taylor Gabriel in this column as a riser, or in my WR/CB Matchups column as a smash-play for Week 4. He's in such a great spot based on the matchup against Tampa Bay, but there's even more to it that I would like to break down.

Gabriel is second on the team in target share with 21-percent of the share going his way. He's hauled in as many passes as Allen Robinson, and as of Week 3, Gabriel has just shy of 30-percent of his teams total air-yards. The usage is there to make Gabriel a solid bench-stash in most formats. Here's where he transcends into smash-play worthy as a dart throw for Week 4.

Bears slot WR Anthony Miller has already been ruled out for this matchup versus Tampa Bay, leaving 11-percent of Chicago's target market up for grabs. Robinson is already handling a ton of work, so it's fair to expect this implied usage to flow Gabriel's way.

One last thing on Gabriel last week that could correlate with production in Week 4: he ran 26 routes out of the slot last Sunday against the Arizona Cardinals, which was a season-high. If Gabriel were to replicate this slot-usage, he would matchup with M.J. Stewart. Stewart has been atrocious guarding the slot this year, allowing the sixth-most receiving yards and a 94-percent catch rate when lined up there.

Eric Ebron - Indianapolis Colts

Typically, this column will be about wide receivers. But since Eric Ebron chalk-week didn't go as expected in Week 3, I found it was a good idea to explain why you should go right back to him in Week 4.

Ebron is keeping pace with T.Y. Hilton in virtually every receiving metric for this team. Ebron is second on the Colts in targets behind Hilton, and he trails the wide receiver in air-yards by just 34. Ebron actually has a higher aDOT than Hilton as well at 10.2 to 7.9. Much of this has to do with the narrative circulating around that Andrew Luck's shoulder could be completely shot, and he cannot make the throws downfield he once could.

Even if that's the case, it isn't probable cause to fade Ebron in both DFS and season-long this week. Jack Doyle has already been ruled out for a second-straight week, and Ebron saw 11 targets in his absence last Sunday. The Houston Texans have allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to tight ends through the first three weeks of this season, putting Ebron in a spot to smash once again.

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