X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Advanced MLB DFS Strategy: Targeting Bad Bullpens

Thunder Dan Palyo highlights some overlooked aspects of playing MLB DFS with advanced tactics - targeting bad bullpens with hitters.

With Opening Day of the MLB season only a little over a week away, it's time to start getting your mind right and preparing for a full season of MLB DFS action. Last summer we missed out on several months of MLB games due to the COVID pandemic, but we are going to get 6 months worth of DFS and for those of you who love to grind, I will be here all Spring, Summer, and Fall grinding with you and anchoring our MLB DFS premium coverage here at RotoBaller.

In this series of articles, I am going to try to lay out a number of overlooked factors that can be exploited by savvy MLB DFS players. Baseball is such a stat-nerd sport, and there are so many different statistics that one can consider when trying to break down any slate of games. I'll cover the basics for both hitters and pitchers in my annual DFS Strategy guide, but for today I want to focus on an often under-analyzed angle - and that's bullpens.

These days the vast majority of starting pitchers aren't pitching all that deep into games. When the starting pitchers are announced each day, we often look at who the weakest starters are to see who we want to stack against. But far too often we don't consider that at least that the hitters we roster will be facing the opposing team's bullpen for at least a third of their at-bats, or more if we think they chase the starter early.

Featured Promo: Get any DFS Premium Bundle for for 30% off using code NEW! Win more with expert advice from proven winners and exclusive DFS tools. Get instant access to RotoBaller's Lineup Optimizers, Research Stations, daily picks and VIP chat rooms across 10 sports! Go Premium, Win More!

Targeting a weak, or even a mediocre pitcher that has a bad bullpen behind them is one way to win a GPP. If an offense explodes for double-digit runs, it's usually not all done just against the starter. When offenses are pouring it on, they're often beating up on the long relievers and many teams with poor starting pitching also end up with overworked bullpens as a result. It's a shrewd move to consider bullpens in addition to starting pitchers when selecting those offenses we want to stack.

Here's a look at the bottom half of the league in innings pitched by their starters.

2020 was a unique season in that some teams piggybacked starters, and the trend of using openers instead of traditional starters, popularized by Tampa Bay (whose starters threw the fifth-fewest innings last year, but were incredibly effective with the fourth-best xFIP) might skew our data here a little. It's still a good place to start if we are trying to identify teams that had overworked or overused bullpens. The Dodgers and Mets show up on this list, but both teams were top-ten in xFIP and have quality starting pitching and L.A. has been taking the approach of managing their starting pitchers' workloads throughout the season.

 

2020 Bullpen Stats: xFIP

Looking at ERA isn't usually a good idea and I'll spare you the time getting into why there are better performance indicators for pitchers. Using FanGraphs, let's just take a look at last year's bullpen stats here sorted by the worst xFIP (expected fielding-independent pitching), which I view as a solid stat that encompasses the overall effectiveness of pitchers.

We see four teams with bullpen xFIPs up over five, with Seattle being considerably worse than the rest of the field. The Mariners were a bullpen I picked on quite often last season and they are going to show up near the top of all these statistics that I am going to highlight here.

Despite having pitcher-friendly home ballparks, Miami and San Francisco relievers were bad last year, too. I'm not surprised to see Colorado and Texas in the top five, as those have been two of the most hitter-friendly environments. The Nationals bullpen was horrendous in 2019 and was slightly better last year, but still bad enough to crack the top-10.

 

2020 Bullpen Stats: BB/9

I love targeting pitchers who walk too many hitters. Walks put men on base and increase the chances for big innings. A lot of relief pitchers carry high walk rates when compared to starters which is likely due to having to pitch in more high-leverage situations. But what we are looking for here is bullpens that are consistently walking more batters than others and once again we see Seattle at the top of the list.

Seattle's number of walks is even more concerning when you pair it with their lack of strikeouts. A bullpen that has a K/9 rate of fewer than 9 means they aren't even striking out a hitter per inning. Strikeouts get you out of jams, even if you are putting baserunners on with walks, which helps explain why a team like the Cubs with a high K/9 (10.66) can withstand their high walk rate (4.66 BB/9).

 

2020 Bullpen Stats: HR/9

Home runs are king in DFS. If you find the right stack of hitters that can produce multiple dingers or locate a double-dong or two in your lineup, you're well on your way to cashing, and in contention to take down a tournament. Most relief pitchers are hard throwers these days and give up a lot of long balls. Here's a look at the worst bullpens sorted by their HR/9.

The Phillies pen gave up a dinger every four and a half innings and so it's no surprise that their HR/FB ratio was over 20%. There are our lowly Mariners again with the second-worst mark (albeit a distant second) and some of the same bad bullpens we've seen in the other data (COL, MIA, WAS...)

 

Summary

  1. We are going to need a few weeks of data once the season starts to get any kind of idea as to the quality of each team's bullpen, but once we have a decent sample this is data that you should be considering when doing your daily DFS research.
  2. Just because a bullpen rates poorly statistically, it doesn't mean we should target them no matter what. If they have a quality starter out there that we don't want to target, we shouldn't stack against that starter with the hopes they get pulled early.
  3. If we want to target a bad starter with a good bullpen, we should probably think twice. If you don't get the production you're looking for from your hitters the first two times through the order, you might be in trouble as your hitters end up facing better pitchers the second half of the game.
  4. The perfect situation that we are looking for is a poor or mediocre starter who is also backed by a poor or mediocre bullpen. Then we can stack hitters with confidence, knowing that they'll have 4-5 at-bats against hittable pitchers regardless of how long the starting pitcher lasts out there.

 



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Griffin Conine

To Have Shoulder Surgery On Tuesday
Luke Keaschall

Twins Prospect Luke Keaschall Suffers Broken Forearm
Logan Gilbert

Leaves Friday's Start With Forearm Tightness

Vikings Select Tai Felton To Finish Day 2

Seahawks Select Quarterback Jalen Milroe With The 92nd Pick Overall

Browns Select Dillon Gabriel 94th Overall

Packers Pick Savion Williams At No. 87 overall

Steelers Snag Kaleb Johnson In Round 3

Broncos Select Wide Receiver Pat Bryant With The 74th Overall Pick

Texans Select Jaylin Noel With 79th Pick

Lions Select Wide Receiver Isaac TeSlaa With The 70th Overall Pick
Jack Leiter

To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
Garrett Mitchell

Makes Early Exit
Luke Keaschall

Removed Early On Friday
Blake Snell

Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Brendan Donovan

Back In Action On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Coby Mayo

Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF