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Sam Chinitz offers his thoughts on the fantasy baseball draft ADP of select middle infielders (2B or SS) and analyzes who is going too high or low in terms of value.
With spring training underway and the start of the MLB season less than one month away, fantasy baseball draft preparation season is in full swing. As the MLB season draws near, player ADPs will shift as expectations change and more drafts are completed.
Drafting early leaves more room for injuries to hurt fantasy teams, but can also provide a better opportunity for fantasy owners to find underpriced players. This year’s middle infield group has a number of those opportunities, as well as a handful of players that fantasy owners are better off avoiding at their current prices.
Second base and shortstop can be two of the more difficult positions at which to find viable fantasy options. Below are some thoughts about how middle infielders have been valued so far that should help.
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The Overpriced
Keston Hiura (2B, MIL) - MI14, 43 ADP
Hiura burst onto the major league scene last season with a .303/.368/.570 slash line in 84 games, but his 43 ADP is too rich given his contact struggles and likely regression. Hiura posted a high 30.8% strikeout rate last year, a mark that could’ve been even higher based on his ridiculous 17.5% swinging-strike rate. Additionally, Hiura’s .402 BABIP from last season is unsustainable and will likely drop towards .350 in 2020. An .850-.900 OPS with around 25 home runs and a 30% strikeout rate just isn’t good enough for 43 overall, so fantasy owners should pass on Hiura at his current price.
Elvis Andrus (SS, TEX) - MI29, 138 ADP
After posting an OPS+ north of 100 in both 2016 and 2017, Andrus saw it drop to 78 in each of the past two seasons. With a .307 xwOBA and a .336 xwOBA on contact last season, fantasy owners shouldn’t expect more than a .750 OPS out of Andrus in 2020. Andrus’ value really comes from stolen bases (31 last season) and a low 14.8% strikeout rate, but with Corey Seager and Jorge Polanco still on the board at Andrus’ ADP, that’s not enough to make Andrus worthwhile. Stolen bases can be found in later rounds (Mallex Smith is going at 167); fantasy owners are better off going with the better overall production from other shortstops at Andrus’ price.
Garrett Hampson (2B/SS/OF, COL) - MI33, 170 ADP
Hampson boasts an advanced plate approach (23% chase rate last year) and solid contact skills (79% contact rate), but limited power and a lack of clear everyday playing time make him overpriced at 170. In 105 games last season, Hampson posted a paltry 83.2 mph average exit velocity, 25.7% hard-hit rate, and 3.7% barrel rate. Hampson’s career-best ISO in the minor leagues was a mediocre .151, so it’s unlikely that the 25-year-old will experience a sudden boost in power in 2020. That lack of power likely caps Hampson’s potential OPS ceiling at around .800, even with the hitter-friendly effects of Coors Field. Combined with the fact that Hampson enters the season without clear consistent playing time, fantasy owners are better off staying away from Hampson so early in drafts.
The Undervalued
Didi Gregorius (SS, PHI) - MI39, 200 ADP
Injuries tainted Gregorius’ 2019 season, but the 30-year-old is only a season removed from a .268/.335/.494 slash line and is a bargain at his 200 ADP. Gregorius doesn’t hit the ball particularly hard with an 86.5 mph average exit velocity in 2018, but his propensity to hit the ball in the air (0.67 career GB/FB ratio) and avoid strikeouts (14.2% career strikeout rate) give Gregorius a relatively high floor and room for upside. Gregorius has increased his hard-hit rate on flyballs in each of the past two seasons, and if he can continue that trend then a .850 OPS is achievable. Still, Gregorius is unlikely to post an OPS below .750 and is underpriced as a result.
Andrelton Simmons (SS, LAA) - MI59, 334 ADP
An ankle injury hampered Simmons in 2019, but the shortstop posted an OPS north of .750 in both 2017 and 2018. Encouragingly, Simmon’s power improvements stuck in 2019 with his 87.7 mph average exit velocity effectively matching his 87.8 mph mark from the previous season. The issue for Simmons last year was his launch angle. Simmons got too far under the ball too frequently last year, resulting in a 21% IF/FB ratio and helping push his xwOBA on contact down to a disappointing .263. Now fully healthy, Simmons has a legitimate chance at bouncing back in 2020 with an OPS around .750.
Niko Goodrum (1B/2B/SS/OF, DET) - MI49, 279 ADP
Goodrum owns a .392 xwOBA on contact over the past two seasons, a comfortably above-average mark that is tough to come by at his 279 ADP. Goodrum has also seen his average exit velocity (89.3 mph) and hard-hit rate (41.5%) increase in each of the past two seasons, and additional improvements in 2020 would bode well for his fantasy value. With a near 30% strikeout rate last season, Goodrum’s primary issue is strikeouts. Even with a 30% strikeout rate though, Goodrum is a fairly safe bet to post an OPS around .750 thanks to his contact quality. Combined with his 24 steals over the past two years and everyday playing time, Goodrum should easily return value at his current price.
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