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Frank Ammirante compares the fantasy baseball value of two outfielders going in the same ADP range of 2021 drafts, Luis Robert and Austin Meadows, to determine which player is the better draft choice.
It's finally March and we're now in the thick of fantasy baseball draft season! This means that it's time to look closely at ADP to determine if there are players with similar skillsets but different draft costs, allowing you to maximize value with your draft picks.
In this article, we'll take a look at two outfielders who can provide similar production but at varying ADPs. We'll use National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) ADP from the beginning of February to ensure that we have the updated data for this discussion. We'll also use ATC Projections to provide a baseline for their 2021 outlook.
This article will focus on two promising outfielders: Luis Robert and Austin Meadows. Both players have intriguing power and speed profiles with high upside. Robert is coming off a promising rookie season, while Meadows is trying to bounce back from disappointing production in the shortened season. Let's see if it's worth it to target Robert or if you should wait a few rounds and select Meadows.
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2020 Review
| NFBC ADP | Age | PA | BA | OBP | SLG | R | HR | RBI | SB | |
| Luis Robert | 36.3, OF10 | 23 | 227 | 0.233 | 0.302 | 0.436 | 33 | 11 | 31 | 9 |
| Austin Meadows | 94.4, OF26 | 25 | 152 | 0.205 | 0.296 | 0.371 | 19 | 4 | 13 | 2 |
When looking at 2020 production, it's clear why Robert is being selected almost 60 picks higher than Meadows. The Cuban slugger showed impressive power and speed in his debut season, playing at a near 30-30 pace. These types of players have always come at a premium in fantasy baseball, so it's no surprise to see the hype on Robert. Add in his elite prospect pedigree and you have a potential superstar. Robert also hits in a stacked White Sox lineup, which gives him upside to put up strong counting stats.
Meadows had a great debut season with the Rays in 2019, slashing .291/.364/.558 with 83 runs, 33 home runs, 89 RBI, and 12 stolen bases in 591 plate appearances, but he fell flat in 2020. The main reason for this was his struggles in recovering from COVID-19. Meadows missed the first 10 games of the season and was unable to get into a rhythm after dealing with the virus. This spring, he showed up in terrific shape, shedding some weight to help return to his 2019 form.
Plate Discipline
Robert posted an 8.8 BB% and 32.2 K% in his rookie season, while Meadows put up an 11.2 BB% and 32.9 K% in 2020. If we look back to 2019, Meadows had a much better 22.2 K%, so it appears that he has a higher floor for batting average. Meadows also has shown superior on-base skills, which gives him an edge in OBP. Robert is much more of a free-swinger, posting a 43.1% O-Swing, while Meadows chased fewer pitches (31.8% O-Swing). Despite this, we have to consider that Robert was still a rookie adjusting to big league pitching, so there's a chance for improvement in plate discipline in Year 2.
Source: Baseball Savant
| Exit Velocity | Max Exit Velo | Brls/PA% | Sprint Speed | |
| Luis Robert | 34th percentile | 115.8 MPH | 7.5 | 96th percentile |
| Austin Meadows | 71st percentile | 108.6 MPH | 3.9 | 41st percentile |
Robert put up below-average exit velocity but maxed out at 115.8 MPH, which ranked 10th in MLB, so it's clear that he has the ability to crush the ball. Meadows did not hit the ball as hard as Robert in 2020, but that could also be attributed to the struggles in finding a rhythm. In 2019, Meadows posted an 8.5 Brls/PA%, maxing out at 115.4 MPH (15th), demonstrating that he also can barrel the baseball. The main difference between the two players is fantasy's most scarce commodity: speed. Robert's elite sprint speed gives him the upside to steal 30+ bases, while Meadows looks like he can top out at 15 bags.
ATC Projections
| PA | BA | OBP | SLG | R | HR | RBI | SB | |
| Luis Robert | 608 | 0.252 | 0.310 | 0.463 | 87 | 27 | 82 | 25 |
| Austin Meadows | 569 | 0.259 | 0.332 | 0.476 | 77 | 25 | 75 | 11 |
Robert's higher ADP is justified because of his superior stolen base upside. This is a supremely talented hitter with a legitimate chance to hit 30 home runs and steal 30 bases. While his plate discipline skills limit his upside in BA and OBP, the category juice is enough to warrant a second or third-round pick. I would rather take Robert than Meadows at their respective ADP, but this does not mean that I don't like Meadows this season. This is a player who also has prospect pedigree with a full season of strong production back in 2019.
I expect Meadows to bounce back this year, so if you're debating on which of these two outfielders to draft, the correct answer is BOTH, but make Robert more of a priority.
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