ADP Cost Analysis: Gleyber Torres vs Max Muncy

February 28, 2020

Second-base eligible Gleyber Torres and Max Muncy are similar in fantasy baseball value but have a wide gap in ADP. Euan Leith examines the difference between these 2B to determine which is the better draft option for 2020.

Fantasy baseball is a great game, and there may not be a better time of the season than draft prep. The numbers are flying around, and the group texts are saying that it's Acuna's year to be No. 1 while others take the "If it ain't broke, don't fix it" approach with Mike Trout. The first round is natural and smooth and shouldn't take up too much brainpower. After you get past the top two rounds, things can get messy. That's where your preseason research will help you gain an advantage over the competition.

The aim of the game in fantasy baseball is to find the most value with each pick. Now, this can sometimes get misunderstood, and owners try to get cute with this philosophy. If you have the No. 1 pick, you take the No. 1 player. That's still great value. Once the third round arrives, you can look at Player A and compare him to Player B in round eight. If their production is the same, then of course, Player B becomes a better asset because you have just acquired a third-round caliber player for an eighth-round price. Therefore, your team is stronger.

Remember in 2017, when second base used to be a "Draft Jose Altuve" or bust type of position? Those days of fretting over if Jason Kipnis was a top-five second baseman are long gone in 2020 because fantasy baseball managers are living in a golden age of middle infielders. Today, we compare two second basemen that put up similar production in 2019 but are valued entirely differently as we head into the 2020 draft season. Two men enter the ADP Thunderdome, and only one will leave as the player you want on your fantasy baseball team. Let the ADP cost analysis begin!

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The Candidates

Gleyber Torres broke out in a big way last season that has seen the infielder catapult into the top-30 picks of drafts this year. He is entering his third season in the majors after leading all second basemen with 38 home runs in 2019. It feels like the former Chicago Cub prospect has been in the fantasy baseball atmosphere for a while yet Torres just turned 23 in December. He should be among the best second basemen in this season.

Los Angeles Dodgers infielder Max Muncy exploded onto the fantasy radar in 2018 with an out-of-nowhere season and followed it up with a tremendous 2019. Although older than Torres, he has better plate discipline that gives him advantages in specific formats over Torres. He is sitting inside the top-75 picks and seen as a tier or two below the like of Torres. His combination of power and plate discipline make him a smart pick and, honestly, undervalued pick heading into the 2020 season.

The Fantasy Numbers

In 2019, New York Yankees infielder Gleyber Torres hit 13 home runs in just 18 games against the Baltimore Orioles. However, outside of beating up on his helpless division rivals, Torres hit 25 HR in his other 124 games. If we take that home run rate and apply it to the entire 144 games he played, his season home run total would've dipped from position-leading 38 bombs to a seventh-ranked 29 deep balls. The 186 runs and RBI combined are steady floor for the infielder, but in a Yankee's lineup that led the league in runs and was second in RBI, it's not outrageous for fantasy managers to want a little bit more from Torres heading into 2020.

Max Muncy was not as productive as Torres in leagues with batting average as a category but shined in on-base percentage and points leagues. The former-Baylor Bear ballplayer (try saying that five times fast) had more runs and RBI than Torres in 2019, while only trailing him by three in the deep ball category. He batted second or fifth in 70.8 percent of the games he played last season, and that is a prime spot for racking up the counting stats in a lineup that contains MVP Cody Bellinger and just added former-MVP Mookie Betts.

The Advanced Numbers

In 2019, Torres outperformed his batting average, slugging percentage, and weighted on-base average by significant margins. Of the 70 players who had at least 600 plate appearances last season, Torres ranked top-15 in each category in terms of overachieving. The former top prospect has also succeeded in an atypical manner as he struck out at a 21.4 percent clip while only walking 7.9 percent of the time.

I am not trying to say that Gleyber Torres is a terrible player. He is a great starting option at second base heading into 2020, but fantasy baseball owners should be wary if they are expecting the superstar numbers of 2019. Yankee Stadium will mitigate some of the regression potentials I highlighted, but a top-30 pick is costly for a player that has this many warning signs.

Muncy's expected statistics are quite impressive. Among the 137 players that had 500 or more plate appearances, Muncy was 13th in the difference between his actual batting average and the expected batting average. He was also 17th among 156 qualified hitters in xwOBA and top 4 percent in baseball with a 15.3 percent walk rate. Muncy is a good enough player that the utility man still performs at an elite level while being a bit unlucky. His ADP at 74 feels a little low, considering he could hit north of 40 home runs with a combined 200 RBI and runs.

Conclusion

Gleyber Torres and Max Muncy are both excellent players and great additions to any team for the 2020 fantasy baseball season. However, they had similar production in 2019 with Torres outperforming his advanced metrics and Muncy slightly underperforming. In CBS points leagues, the Dodger averaged 3.4 points per game, and the Yankee averaged 3.3 points per game.

Torres is still young enough that he can enhance his skills and become better while Muncy is much older and is closer to his ceiling. Yet, for 2020 there is not a lot of difference between them, and that's why you should shoot for Muncy as a target. Torres seemed to play above his head last year, while Muncy was right in line with his advanced statistics. Those numbers make me think that Torres is primed for regression and produce lower counting number than Muncy again this season. If you are getting the same statistics from a top-75 pick as you would from a top-30 pick, then you are well on your way to capturing a 2020 fantasy baseball championship.

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